Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 230633

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
233 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...Record-setting warmth again today...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Large area of strong high pressure and
dry air is holding in place from Southern Quebec thru most of the
Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley early this morning...
maintaining unseasonably warm temps and mostly precip-free
conditions across this entire region. Remnants of the MCS that
impacted Eastern Upper Michigan last evening are just exiting that
area...and line of convection that moved thru Northern Lower
Michigan last evening is long gone...leave dry conditions across our
CWA attm. MCS developed upstream along and north of the warm front
associated with low pressure developing over the Northern Plains.
Dwpts dropped into the upper 50s and lower 60s in the wake of last
evening`s convection. Thus...little in the way of fog has developed
so far.

As we head into today...the warm front will gradually lift
northward...allowing surface ridging to reestablish itself across
our entire CWA for today and tonight. Strong subsidence...dry air
thru the column and a strengthening mid level cap should preclude
additional convective development today and tonight. Latest SPC Day
1 Convective Outlook generally agrees with this notion.

Another hot lake September day is expected across the Northwoods.
Several locations will likely match or break max temp records again
today. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 80s in Eastern
Upper Michigan to the low to mid 90s for most of Northern Lower
Michigan. Expect another muggy night as temps drop into the 60s and
dwpts hold in the 60s as well.

Records for today:
    Record (Year)
GLR   83 (2004)
TVC   90 (1937)
APN   89 (1937)
ANJ   84 (1936)
HTL   88 (1937)
PLN   86 (2004)


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...String of record breaking temperatures continues...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: No meaningful changes to the large scale pattern
are expected through early next week as troughing remains anchored
over the Intermountain West with downstream ridging over the eastern
two thirds of CONUS. Riding across the Ohio valley/Great Lakes
characterized by unseasonably high 500 mb heights from 588-590 DM
for the first few days of autumn. Surface high pressure overhead
combined with limited deep layer moisture should limit much in the
way of precip potential locally.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Warm and humid weather
continues through early next week. High temperatures are expected to
remain as much as 20-25 degrees above normal through Monday. Dew
points varying through the 60s will provide a mid summer-like feel
across northern Michigan under partly to mostly sunny skies.

High temperatures both Sunday and Monday are expected to challenge
records at most climate stations. The following are current records

ANJ: 88(1892)/83(1908)
GLR: 86(2007)/76(1958)
HTL: 86(2007)/91(1920)
TVC: 89(2007)/89(1908)
APN: 89(2007)/85(1935)
PLN: 87(2007)/80(2007)


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 233 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Upper ridging remains persistent across the region through Monday
night before beginning to break down as an area of low pressure over
the Upper Mississippi Valley/Ontario and attendant cold front
extending southward into the southern plains will bring increased
cloudiness throughout the day Tuesday and renewed shower chances
Tuesday night through Wednesday. After the cold frontal passage, our
extended summer-like weather will go by the wayside as high
temperatures struggle to rise much above the mid-60s for most on
Wednesday. Even cooler (below normal) for Thursday-Friday with highs
in the upper 50s to low 60s. A more unsettled pattern is anticipated
for the end of the week as well, with occasional showery periods now
out of the question.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1026 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

largely VFR conditions anticipated tonight through Friday. Some
fog anticipated overnight...but shouldn`t become to much of an
issue with temperature/dewpoint spreads running a few to several
degrees. Westerly winds on Saturday will increase to near
sustained 10 knots with some gusts into the teens.


Issued at 233 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria today thru Sunday
night as high pressure holds overhead. Mainly dry wx and
unseasonably warm temps are expected across our entire region thru
Sunday night.




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