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000
FXUS63 KAPX 100047
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
747 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

COLD AIR AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GENERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN UPPER. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY WITH MORE
LIGHT SNOW FOR ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ANOTHER SHOT OF FRIGID AIR
WILL ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

BANDS INTENSIFIED FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS EVENING AS THE MOISTURE
AND THE PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVED INTO N LAKE
MICHIGAN. HOWEVER, AS OBSERVED ON WV IMAGERY, DRIER AIR IS PUSHING
IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, AND SOME SFC RIDGING ARE TURNING THE
WINDS TO THE WEST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS BECOMING EVIDENT IN THE
SNOW BANDS ON THE RADAR AS THE BANDS ARE DIMINISHING AND ARE
STARTING TO SLOWLY RE-ALIGN TO THE WEST. THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL, FOR
THE TIME BEING, REMAIN AS IS, SINCE THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION
SEEMS TO BE WINDING DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER REGIME MORE INDICATIVE OF JANUARY-FEBRUARY
WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ONE WEATHER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...AS ANOTHER TAKES AIM ON THE REGION TUESDAY.

ONGOING LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NW LOWER TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY EARLY. ROBUST 850 MB CAA...SUFFICIENT SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE...AND A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE NRN
GREAT LAKES ARE THE KEY PLAYERS. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO
ONTARIO THIS EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
ANTI-CYCLONIC AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW ONGOING WSW FLOW LAKE EFFECT TO DIMINISH MID-LATE EVENING.
HOWEVER...THIS WON/T OCCUR UNTIL ANOTHER 3-4 INCHES FALLS THIS
EVENING ON TOP OF THE 4-5 INCHES THAT FELL TODAY /ACROSS PARTS OF
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-CHARLEVOIX COUNTIES/. WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP ADVISORY
GOING IN THESE AREAS...WITH SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING ALSO OCCURRING.

DECENT SNOW BURSTS ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF NW LOWER.
HOWEVER...EXPECT ONLY ANOTHER INCH OR TWO. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

TUESDAY...NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH NRN MI FROM THE WEST. IT
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NICE COHERENT POCKET OF QG FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. AS FEATURE APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK TO SW AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH. WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF
-17 TO -18C...THE ONGOING SCT-NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY WILL INTENSIFY AS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH /A RATHER CLASSIC SW
FLOW LAKE ENHANCED EVENT/. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THOUGH MOVES THROUGH. IN COORDINATION WITH GRR...HAVE
HOISTED ADVISORY FOR LEELANAU/GRAND TRAVERSE/BENZIE/MANISTEE/WEXFORD
COUNTIES...IN ANTICIPATION OF 3-5 INCHES DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
KICK UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

KIND OF FEELING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD HERE WITH THIS FORECAST...AS
ROUND AND ROUND WE GO WITH VARIOUS BOUTS OF COLD AIR CONTINUING TO
SPILL INTO THE GREAT LAKES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THAT WILL OF COURSE RESULT IN AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS...ENHANCED AT TIMES BY A COUPLE OF WEAKER WAVES RIDING THROUGH
THE FLOW. AS TALKED ABOUT THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE MEAN UPPER PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS IS UNDERGOING A CHANGE...AS GULF OF ALASKA RIDGING
IS BEING REPLACED BY A MUCH FLATTER FLOW REGIME....FAVORING A
GRADUAL DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION OF THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE
LOWER 48...EVENTUALLY BECOMING CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES INTO
MIDWEEK. THIS OF COURSE MEANS THE HEART OF COLDEST AIR DRAINING FROM
CANADA WILL BE AIMED AT OUR NECK OF THE WOODS (AS OPPOSED TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS EXPERIENCED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS)...SUGGESTING
THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THIS RECENT COLD STRETCH IS STILL TO COME FOR
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME WIND CHILL ISSUES FOR
MIDWEEK...AND OF COURSE SNOW AMOUNTS AND TEMPS REMAIN THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

STARTING THINGS OFF...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOOK DOWNRIGHT
COLD AND WINTRY...WITH THE MEAN FLOW REGIME EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
MORE OF A WEST/NORTHWEST DIRECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES ITSELF
EITHER SIDE OF THE LAKES. FROM A THERMODYNAMIC PERSPECTIVE...THE
AIRMASS ALMOST GETS A LITTLE TOO COLD FOR GOOD SNOWS...AS MUCH OF
THE CLOUD LAYER DIPS INTO THE -18C TO -25C RANGE. HOWEVER...STRONGER
BACKGROUND FLOW UP AROUND 25 KNOTS AND MODEST INVERSION HEIGHTS UP
TO AROUND 750MB COMBINED WITH A DECENT DEPTH OF DGZ DOWN BELOW
900MB (HELPED ALONG BY "WARMER" WATER TEMPS AT THE MOMENT) MAKES
AN ARGUMENT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME HEALTHIER DIFFUSE BANDS IN
PLAY...AND CAN EASILY FORESEE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES FOR THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS OF NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
RIGHT ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE FLOW REGIME
GRADUALLY RELAXES.

PERHAPS THE BEST SETUP WILL COME ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY
WITH CONTINUED STRONG HINTS OF A LAKE/THERMAL TROUGHING INDUCED
CONVERGENCE BAND WAVERING IN AND AROUND THE ZONE FROM PARADISE
TOWARD THE SOO. THESE ARE THE TYPES OF SETUPS THAT ARE ALWAYS A
CHALLENGE...BUT CAN DELIVER SOME VERY HEAVY SNOWS IN A SMALL STRIP.
AT THE MOMENT...AND GIVEN THE SETUP...BEST GUESS IS FOR THAT BAND TO
WAVER ONSHORE SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY BECOME REINFORCED
AS BUBBLE HIGH/DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE OVER EASTERN
ONTARIO...WHICH TYPICALLY FAVORS THE BEST CONVERGENCE FROM ABOUT BAY
MILLS TOWARD PARADISE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE
FLOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MAY ACTUALLY TURN A LITTLE MORE
NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO WHAT SHOULD BE SOME VERY COLD INLAND TEMPS
OVER ONTARIO...WHILE DRAINAGE FLOW MAY KICK THAT BAND WESTWARD INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHILE ALSO PULLING IT FARTHER INLAND. HEADLINES WILL
BE ISSUED THIS CYCLE FOR BOTH CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHWEST
LOWER FOR SNOW AND WIND PRODUCING SOME BLOWING/ DRIFTING...AND
THE NATURAL TENDENCY FOR MORE OF A TALCUM POWDER (I.E. LOW
VISIBILITY) SNOW AT VARIOUS TIMES. SPEAKING OF WIND...WITH TEMPS
STRUGGLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...SHOULD SEE WIND
CHILL VALUES DOWN IN THE -10 TO -20F RANGE - PROBABLY JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY.

HAVE SEEN PERSISTENT HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE OF SLOWLY BACKING FLOW
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST INTO THURSDAY...WHICH MAKES SENSE AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ALL THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN STATES. THAT MAY
ACT TO PUNT THE STRONGER LAKE SUPERIOR CONVERGENCE JUST
OFFSHORE...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO THIN
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT NOT SURE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT...THOUGH SNOW/WATER RATIOS SHOULD IMPROVE AS MUCH OF THE
CLOUD DEPTH MARCHES BACK THROUGH THE DGZ WITH A PUSH OF BOUNDARY
LAYER "WARM" ADVECTION.

AFTER THAT...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT A
BIT INTO FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE
EAST...ALLOWING A TIGHTER THERMAL ZONE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THAT IDEA MAY SUPPORT A ROUND OR TWO OF VERY LIGHT SNOW AS
A COUPLE OF VERY WEAK WAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE FLATTER FLOW...LIKELY
HELPED ALONG BY WHAT SHOULD BE AN INCREASED FGEN RESPONSE...THOUGH
AT THE MOMENT THAT LOOKS STRONGEST UPSTREAM OF HERE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. NO MATTER HOW THAT SHAKES OUT...A FEW ROUNDS OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL ONLY HELP THE LAKE EFFECT SITUATION...THOUGH
AT THIS POINT IT`S QUITE TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY WHAT THE FLOW REGIME
WILL BE...GIVEN A WEAKER GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE TO SUFFICE...BUT THERE
COULD BE A COUPLE MORE INCHES IN SPOTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

PEEKING BEYOND THAT...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT SOME SIGNALS HAVE BEEN SHOWING UP THAT WOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHARPLY COLDER AIR ROLLING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SETUP AS THERE IS SOME SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM TO EVOLVE AND PERHAPS MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD SHOT. REGARDLESS OF HOW THAT
EVOLVES...IT DOES LOOK WE ARE HEADED INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWS TO WRAP UP THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

SOUTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSITION THE
WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER, FOR THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD, THEY WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND AROUND
12Z.

AS WE GET THIS TRANSITION, PLN WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE SNOW BANDS,
AS THE BANDS SHIFT ORIENTATION FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT THEY`LL STAY MVFR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT,
BEFORE THE WINDS TURN SW TUESDAY MORNING AND IFR CATEGORY VSBYS
AND CIGS COME INTO PLAY AGAIN.

APN WILL REMAIN ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THESE BANDS. HOWEVER, A
BAND MAY MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES AS THE MOVING AND BRIEFLY
BRING IFR VSBYS, BUT THAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED.

MBL AND TVC WILL BE TRICKY, BUT AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
FOR THE OVERNIGHT, AND THE BANDS SHIFT TO THE WEST, THE SNOW
SHOULD REMAIN MVFR TO VFR MOST OF THE TIME, AND POSSIBLY A BAND OF
SNOW THAT WOULD BRIEFLY GO IFR. HOWEVER, FOR TUESDAY WITH THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS, THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
LIKE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...
THANKS TO RESPECTABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAA. AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN THE WINDS LATER TONIGHT...GALES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
AGAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS REINFORCING COLD AIR
BLASTS INTO THE REGION.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ020-
     025-026-031-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MIZ021-022.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ016-017-
     019.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ349.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>348.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ322.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...NTS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...SMITH