Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 230341
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1141 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure and dry air remains across the Great Lakes with the
surface ridge axis slowly drifting east the state by Monday
morning. Lots of clear skies, save for a few strands of cirrus
drifting southward through the region, and what appears to be
another ribbon of smoke aloft from Canada.

Temperatures are largely in the 50s this hour. But lots of room
for cooling with calm winds and mainly clear skies, particularly
across north central and northeast lower Michigan where sfc
dewpoints are in the 30s. So, anticipate lots of mid to upper 30s
for low temps across those areas, and lower 30s certainly a good
bet for the usual colder spots (PLN/GOV/Mio). Have expanded
patchy frost wording just a bit more and gone with areas of frost
for those colder spots. Don`t think frost will be widespread or
long lived enough to warrant a frost headline however.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

High Impact Weather Potential...Patchy frost in low lying areas
tonight. Elevated fire weather concerns on Monday.

Ridging at surface and aloft builds slowly across Michigan
through the day on Monday, becoming squeezed between areas of low
pressure both east and west. With strong ridging in place and deep
layer drying, little in the way of cloudiness expected. Very low
soil moisture, clear skies, light winds and low dewpoints will
result in excellent radiational cooling conditions tonight. Some
areas will likely see a 35+ degree diurnal temperature range. Our
typically colder locations will drop into the middle 30s with even
a few lower 30s possible through the Au Sable Valley, resulting
in patchy frost. The frost will be not widespread enough to
warrant a headline but will mention in the forecast and HWO.
Becoming quite a bit warmer on Monday as H8 thermal ridge builds
toward the western lakes with 12-13 degc air. Brought down dry
adiabatically these temps support high temps into the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Still not much wind on Monday as there remains limited
winds through the mixed layer /10-15kts/.

Fire weather...Continuing fire weather concerns on Monday. Despite
having a relatively weak wind regime /10-15kts/, plenty of things
will elevate the fire danger including very low fuel moistures,
temperatures around 80 degrees and afternoon relative humidity
values in the teens east of I-75.  After a conference call with the
USFS and DNR, it was decided to keep the Fire Weather Watch for
Monday /and extend it into Tuesday - see discussion below/.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Pattern synopsis/Expected evolution: Deep upper-level troughing
centered over the Intermountain West with ridging evident across
the midsection of the CONUS this afternoon. Associated sfc high
pressure will drive our sensible weather through Tuesday morning
with little in the way of issues (save for fire weather concerns)
through that time. Ridging gradually breaks down Tuesday into
Tuesday night, setting the stage for a large scale pattern shift
for the middle to end of the upcoming week.

Forecast challenges: Frontal timing Tuesday and associated minimum
RH values/increasing cloud cover - perhaps leading to another
elevated fire danger day. PoPs/QPF/timing for Tuesday-Wednesday.

Details: Surface high pressure squarely overhead Monday night is
expected to lead to mainly clear skies and light winds before a
moisture starved cold front begins to slide toward northern Michigan
during the day Tuesday. Not expecting much more than a gradual
increase in cloud cover from west to east Tuesday across much of the
area (perhaps a few showers over western Chippewa/ Mackinac counties
Tuesday morning ). While PoPs increase south of the bridge Tue
afternoon, it certainly doesn`t look to be a widespread precip day
by any means with any precip remaining fairly scattered in nature.
Have no reason to disagree with inherited thunder chances as warm
temperatures and increasing dew points aid in a couple hundred J/kg
of MLCAPE across the majority of the area. Tuesday could be somewhat
of a sneaky fire weather day, mainly across northeast Lower, but all
dependent on frontal timing and inherent cloudiness. Temperatures
(talked about more below) should surge into the middle 80s in
downsloping locations. Combined with antecedent dry conditions, min
RHs of 25-35%, slow-to-increase cloud cover east of I-75,
occasionally gusty winds, and after collaboration with the DNR and
USFS, will go ahead add mention of fire weather concerns on Tuesday
to the HWO and issue a fire watch for portions of the area late
Tuesday morning through the mid-afternoon.

Chance PoPs and thunder chances continue Tuesday night through
Wednesday, again with little in the way coverage. Have a feeling the
majority of the daylight hours Wednesday may end up being completely
dry for many as a pocket of dry low-mid level air may inhibit much
of what precip is able to develop making it to the surface.

Warm temperatures are expected throughout the period. Mild overnight
lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Tuesday is expected to be the
warmest of the week with highs topping 80 degrees away from the big
lakes, mid to perhaps even a few tagging the upper 80s for downslope
affected locations of northeast Lower. Slightly cooler Wednesday
post frontal passage, but still a few degrees above normal, ranging
through the 70s.

Gillen

Unsettled pattern into Memorial weekend. We will remain on the
upslope side of ridging over the eastern CONUS, with the
combination of strong return flow and shortwave impulses moving
through the flow bringing rain chances. Difficult to nail down any
kind of timing right now with the impulses racing through, but we
should pick up some needed rainfall, with perhaps some rumbles of
thunder. Still keeping an eye on the possibility for some stronger
storms. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the
period.

MAYHEW

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1141 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

..VFR weather continues...

High pressure and dry air remain fixed across the Great Lakes and
will continue to produce mainly clear skies and VFR flight
conditions through Monday, save for patches of high cloud drifting
through the region.

Light winds tonight becoming southwest 10 knots or less on Monday.
Winds diminish again Monday night. However, increasing SW return
flow Monday night may begin to produce LLWS conditions at the
terminal sites late Monday evening and overnight into Tuesday.
Have not included in the TAF forecasts yet (may be after the
current 06Z TAF end time). But something to plan for.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun May 22 2016

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria thru Monday
night as high pressure remains in control of the weather across the
Great Lakes region. Dry weather will persist thru Monday night as
well.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening
     for MIZ016-019-021-027-033.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from 11 AM EDT Monday through Tuesday
     afternoon for MIZ017-018-022>024-028>030-034>036.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
SHORT TERM...Keysor
LONG TERM...Gillen/Mayhew
AVIATION...Adam
MARINE...Keysor



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