050
FXUS63 KAPX 101815
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
215 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and embedded thunder chances build tonight into Friday,
  particularly across northern lower.

- Better shot at more widespread shower and storm activity
  Saturday into early Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level flow is in the process of
becoming more zonal this afternoon with attendant Canadian-
originated surface high pressure sliding overhead. Changes appear to
be in the offing, however, as upstream MCS development and
convectively charged shortwave trek into parts of the western Great
Lakes by late tonight into Friday.

Forecast Details: Just a real low chance for a rogue short-lived
shower across northeast lower this afternoon amidst a bubbling
shallow cu field. Otherwise, little in the way of sensible weather
this afternoon/evening as quick-moving bubble of high pressure
slides overhead. Focus largely transitions to late tonight through
Friday as upstream (decaying) MCS over southern MN/eastern IA and
southwest WI continues to slowly slide eastward. Secondary, much
faster moving, convective complex developing over eastern NE, will
provide the impetus to slide both of these features into parts of
the western Great Lakes later tonight into Friday. Ultimately,
there`s still some uncertainty as to where initial shower and
embedded storm chances lie, but latest trends continue to favor
south of M-72 into southwest lower MI late tonight through early
Friday morning.

By Friday midday into the afternoon, deep moisture expected to be on
the increase with PWs climbing back above 1.5" with any additional
daytime convective development bringing about the concern for
locally heavy/torrential downpours. Also, some non-zero severe
probabilities through this time frame given potential for
lingering/remnant MCV(s) to be the driver of localized environments
characterized by higher shear. Primarily a gusty wind threat with
any potential storms given that warm/juicy airmass. The best chance
for these scenarios generally lies south of M-32 (and even more so,
south of M-72) where instability is expected to be focused.

As was alluded to by the prior forecaster, this all throws a wrench
into high temperatures for Friday with potential for 70s/low 80s in
areas that see more clouds/precip. Outside of those areas, warming
into the mid-80s still seems feasible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Pattern Forecast: Potential for an active stretch of weather
continues right on into Saturday as more aggressive troughing,
taking on a more negative tilt with time, treks across the northern
Plains into the Great Lakes region. Northern MI expected to be in the
favorable right entrance region of southwest-northeast oriented
upper-level jet maxima through this time frame with increasingly
favorable large scale ascent yielding increased potential for
additional shower/storm development along and in advance of a cold
front attendant to low pressure trekking through Ontario to near
James Bay.

By late weekend into early next week, lower amplitude troughing/more
zonal flow expected to prevail with a general reprieve in active
weather before another potential wave sets its sights on the
nation`s midsection toward mid-late week.

Forecast Details: Primary focus through the long term revolves
around Friday night through Saturday night. While plenty of
uncertainty riddles this timeframe, latest trends are pointing
toward a move favorable setup for potential convection with at least
some severe/locally heavy rain concern. Initial uncertainty around
Friday night as LLJ response increases -- potentially the driver of
additional shower/storm development across parts of lower MI. If this
occurs, expecting the most numerous coverage to be focused across
the southern half of the state -- with the main issue locally being
locally heavy downpours in an increasingly juiced atmosphere.

PWs progged to increase even farther on Saturday (potentially near
2" -- locally some +1.5-3 SD above the mid-July mean) with dew
points rising to near 70 degrees. Depending on convective evolution
Friday night and cloud trends through the day Saturday, potential
for additional shower/storm development exists later Saturday into
Saturday evening in advance of the aforementioned cold front with
increasingly favorable large scale ascent aloft. Locally heavy rain
threat continues through this time frame, especially given flow
largely parallel to the boundary, potentially leading to training
convection. WPC Day 3 ERO includes the entirely of the forecast area
in a Marginal Risk. In terms of severe weather -- again conditional
at this point regarding trends Friday night/early Saturday, but
assuming we can maximize daytime heating and destabilize (seemingly
always our biggest issue), it`s a favorable set up for one or more
bands of convection to develop with all severe hazards possible.
SPC`s latest Day 3 SWO includes the entirety of the state of
Michigan in a Marginal Risk. Many more details to be ironed out in
the coming days.

Beyond this system exiting stage right Saturday night/early Sunday,
a general reprieve in active weather expected with more zonal flow
aloft and higher surface pressures working in by early next week.
Long range trends support renewed troughing towards the middle of
next week bringing about the next chances for more numerous
showers/storms.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Decaying convective system and attendant weak surface low over Upper
Midwest to drift eastward into Upper Great Lakes tonight. Current
expectation is for this weak surface low to cross through central MI
tonight...could lead to some showers prior to 6z, particularly at
TVC and MBL...but best chances should hold off till after 10z with
another disturbance moving in. Light and variable winds could take
on a slight easterly component through tonight with subtle surface
low in area...but think offshore flow could develop at coastal
sites, esp APN. Cigs largely VFR though some potential for low
stratus/fog again, esp CIU and APN tonight...though less confidence
in fog tonight vs last night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...FEF