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000
FXUS63 KAPX 270221
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
921 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MI...ON THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC. THIS HAS BEEN PRODUCING
FLURRIES OR -SHSN OVER PARTS OF NE/N CENTRAL LOWER MI/EASTERN
UPPER. ONE STRONGER BAND HAS BEEN SKIRTING THE COAST FROM PRESQUE
LT NW-WARD...UNTIL REACHING THE STRAITS (MAC ISL HAS SEEN VSBYS
LESS THAN 2SM OVER THE LAST HALF-HOUR OR SO). HAVE INCREASED POPS
WITH THIS BAND...ALLOWING FOR A HALF-INCH OR SNOW OF ACCUMS.
ALREADY SIGHS OF THIS BAND DETERIORATING EAST OF ROGERS AS
1000-850MB FLOW STARTS TO BACK.

OTHER CHANGES...SOME FLURRIES MADE IT AS FAR INLAND AS GRAYLING
AND NWS GAYLORD...HAD TO EXPAND THE MENTION OF THOSE. TO THE
NW...SYNOPTIC SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING LOW IN THE UPPER MS
VALLEY IS STILL HOLDING TOGETHER PRETTY WELL IN CENTRAL UPPER.
THAT SAID...00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWS A SKINNY BUT POTENT DRY WEDGE
CENTERED ON 800MB (DEW PT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 30C). THAT WEDGE IS
LIKELY A LITTLE DEEPER IN NW LOWER...AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING OF LAKE HURON. STILL...HAVE SLIGHTLY EXPANDED CHANCE
POPS IN NW LOWER TOWARD WESTERN GD TRAV/WEXFORD COUNTIES.

00Z APX SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ABOVE 750MB...BUT
THIS HAS NOT RESULTED IN PARTICULARLY SOLID CLOUD COVER YET. THAT
SAID...IT IS TRENDING THAT WAY...WITH SE SECTIONS THE MAIN AREA
THAT IS NOW CLOUD-FREE. CONTINUE TO TWEAK CLOUD COVER...WITH A
GENERAL TREND OF SAID BECOMING MORE EXTENSIVE UNTIL ALMOST
DAWN...WHEN A FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING TREND SHOULD BEGIN FROM NNE TO
SSW (CONTINUING INTO TUE MORNING).

TEMPS ARE A CHALLENGE...WITH SOME FAIRLY RAPID DIPS EARLIER THIS
EVENING...BUT THEN REBOUNDS AS CLOUD COVER EXPANDED. MIGHT BE ABLE
TO ADJUST SOME READINGS HIGHER...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN LOWER MI.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES...

SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS FIXED ACROSS THE STATE WITH NRN MICHIGAN
GETTING SQUEEZED BETWEEN DECAYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING SSE THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND MAJOR COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC. THICKER MID CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN SKIRTING THROUGH THE
CWA THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN OVERALL PARTLY SUNNY "LOOK" OUT THERE
FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER...ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD
LAKE CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE HURON INTO PARTS
OF NE LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY STILL LOOKING TO
ESSENTIALLY DECAY QUICKLY TONIGHT WHILE SLIDING SSE OUT OF THE
REGION BY MORNING. NARROW CORRIDOR OF ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIP HAS
BEEN HITTING A WALL AT THE MICHIGAN BORDER ALL DAY...AND NOTHING
WILL CHANGE MUCH TONIGHT EITHER. SO...WILL KEEP VERY LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...BUT EVEN
THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. MEANWHILE...ESE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LAKE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN PARTS OF EASTERN
UPPER AND NE LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...BEFORE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS MORE NE OVERNIGHT DRAGGING DRIER AIR DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: INITIAL HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN BEGINS TO RELAX SOME HEADING THROUGH MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH
BACKGROUND PATTERN OF WESTERN RIDGING/EASTERN TROUGHING REMAINS.
THERMAL GRADIENT SHIFTS NORTH IN THE PROCESS...NOT ONLY ALLOWING
SOME TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION...BUT SETTING THE STAGE FOR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FINALLY ADVANCE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTH WOODS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TEMPERATURE/CLOUD TRENDS
THROUGHOUT AND ASSESSING ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL WITH ABOVE
MENTIONED SYSTEM.

DETAILS: CURRENT RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL BE A
SLOW ONE TO YIELD...ESSENTIALLY LOCKING IN OVERHEAD HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RESULT SHOULD BE A DRY AND MODERATING ONE
FOR US...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 20S AND WEDNESDAY A
GOOD 5 OR MORE DEGREES WARMER. AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL HAVE PLENTY TO
SAY JUST HOW COLD WE GET TUESDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING TUESDAY
MORNING CLOUDS TO THIN OUT AS DRYING DEEPENS AND LAKE HURON
PROCESSES ARE LOST. CLOUDS LOOK TO BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS INITIAL STAGES OF TOP-DOWN SATURATION BEGIN WELL
AHEAD OF NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THAT LEAVES A GOOD 6+ HOURS OF
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MONDAY EVENING. GOTTA THINK
COLDER IS THE WAY TO GO (SEE THIS PAST NIGHT!)...AND WILL TREND
TOWARD THE COLDER END OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. THIS
AGAIN DROPS SOME OF THE TRADITIONAL ICE BOX LOCALES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW THE GOOSE EGG.

FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A SHOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVES AS SOON AS
LATER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS PAIR OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES RACE
TOWARD THE AREA. DRY LOW LEVELS LIKELY TO BE HARD TO OVERCOME
INITIALLY...BUT STILL THINK SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WAA PROCESSES/DEEP
LAYER DYNAMICS INCREASE STEADILY OVERNIGHT...MAXING OUT LATE NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NOT AN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM...BUT QUICK
TAP OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES UP NEAR HALF AN INCH)
COINCIDENT WITH ARRIVAL OF PEAK DYNAMICS SHOULD DO THE TRICK TO BRING
A ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO ALL. LIMITED DURATION AND OVERALL
LACK OFF STRONGER DYNAMICS/DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ACT TO KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS IN CHECK. THINKING A GENERAL 1-3/2-4 IS TO BE
EXPECTED. TIMING IS PROBLEMATIC...CENTERING ITSELF ON THE MORNING
COMMUTE FOR GREATEST IMPACTS. BECAUSE OF SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS SYSTEM THROUGH OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

AS THURSDAY`S ALBERTA CLIPPER CONTINUES TO EXIT STAGE RIGHT...CHILLY
850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MOVE IN TO THE AREA (FALLING TO
ROUGHLY -14C TO -19C ACROSS THE CWA). THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT TO DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST LES ZONES OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY BEFORE A QUICK REDUCTION IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE (850MB -
700MB RH FALLING TO LESS THAN 40%) ARRIVES BY 12Z FRIDAY ESSENTIALLY
LIMITING MUCH OF ANY FALLING PRECIP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY TO JUST
FLURRIES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST APPROACHES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION...A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST PART OF
THE AREA.

QUITE CHILLY AIR HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SPILL INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK WITH DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -24C TO -28C. WHILE THIS WOULD LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS...THIS COLD SIGNAL HAS SHOWN UP AT
THIS TIMEFRAME OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AND WINDS UP
VERIFYING NOT NEARLY TO THE DEGREE SHOWN. SO WHILE IT`S STILL
POSSIBLE...NOT EXPECTING IT TO VERIFY TO THE DEGREE OF COLD THAT
IS BEING ADVERTISED AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

OCNL -SHSN NEAR APN THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN MI FROM THE NE...SEPARATING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY FROM THE INTENSE LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST. LIGHT LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW HAS
BEEN PUSHING SOME -SHSN OFF OF LAKE HURON INTO APN. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BEFORE BACKING WINDS AND DRYING ELIMINATE
ANY -SHSN. STILL...OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
APN THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR...WITH A THICKER MID CLOUD DECK
TONIGHT THAT WILL THIN SUBSTANTIALLY TUESDAY.

LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT...BACKING TOWARD THE NORTH TUESDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...JAZ