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000
FXUS63 KAPX 032358 AAA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WILL ALLOW ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 7 PM WITH RADAR
RETURNS QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS FIRST WIND SHIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS IS LEADING TO MODEST LLEVEL DRYING
THAT SHOULD HELP BRING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO AN END /TEMPS ALOFT
ARE BEGINNING TO FALL AS WELL...WITH SNOW TAKING BACK OVER AS THE
DOMINANT PTYPE/.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

OVERVIEW: PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NRN ONTARIO WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND WILL SWING THROUGH
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ALOFT...STRONG UPPER JET NOSES
FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW CROSSING UPPER MICHIGAN. LAST BATCH OF SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT COUNTIES. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA...MID LEVELS (LARGELY ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL) HAVE BEEN STEADILY
DRYING OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH EARLIER SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SOME FAIRLY HEAVY FZDZ ACROSS MOST OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
PARTICULARLY HEAVY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT ICING IS OCCURRING.

THIS EVENING...SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BRINGING AN END TO THE STEADY SNOWFALL UP THAT
WAY. CURRENT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH 7 PM...WHICH SEEMS GOOD FOR
NOW. ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-
MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT HEADING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SUGGESTING FZDZ SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE GET INTO THE
EVENING. INHERITED ADVISORY FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN ALSO RUNS
UNTIL 7 PM...AND GIVEN THE FZDZ I HAVE NO INTENTION OF CANCELLING
IT EARLY EVEN THOUGH THE SNOWFALL HAS MOSTLY ENDED. QUESTION
IS...WILL IT NEED EXTENDED BEYOND 7 PM? PROVIDED FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT WE SHOULD BE GOOD...WITH THE HEAVIER FZDZ
ENDING RIGHT AROUND THAT TIME. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO FURTHER
ASSESS THE ADVISORY CLOSER TO 7 PM.

THEN...UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO
FOLLOW GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (BOTTOMING OUT AT -24C AT 850 MB ON
WEDNESDAY). THINK WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BRIEF BATCH OF SNOW SWING
THROUGH THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT (AS IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM NEAR
DULUTH RIGHT NOW) FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THAT -24C H8 AIR MAKES
INROADS INTO THE REGION. BUT...LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS/A FAIRLY
DRY INCOMING AIRMASS AND GREAT LAKES ICE COVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

SO...WHO`S READY FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD WEATHER? ANYONE? ANYONE?
WE DIDN`T THINK SO. SADLY THE WEATHER DOESN`T REALLY CARE WHAT WE
WANT...AND INDEED LOOKS TO FLEX ITS MUSCLE TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK
AS YET ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER TROUGHING SETS IN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE PROVIDING US
TODAY`S SNOW. HOWEVER...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO DROP IN
ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...HOLDING FIRM INTO MUCH
OF THURSDAY BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL RETREAT INTO FRIDAY AS WE AWAIT
OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE WORKING TOWARD THE AREA.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH AN INCREASING ISSUE
OF WIND CHILL VALUES TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WE REALLY CRANK
UP THE FLOW. BROAD WEST/NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY COMBINED WITH H8 TEMPS DIVING TOWARD -25C (YUCK!) AND
AT LEAST A SPOKE OR TWO OF "BETTER" MOISTURE WORKING THROUGH THE
AREA SHOULD DELIVER AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS. THOSE OF COURSE WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BOTH BY ICE COVER AND
THE VERY COLD NATURE OF THE AIRMASS...BUT NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD
BE OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWERS. TIME OF YEAR WITH LAND-BASED CAPE OF 25-
30 J/KG AND WEAKISH BULK SHEAR AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD FAVOR DIFFUSE
BANDING BUT WITH A CELLULAR NATURE BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POOL. NO
DOUBT ABOUT IT - TEMPS WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS EASTERN AREA...BUT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AT TIMES PUSHING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO
THE -15F RANGE OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER SUB-ZERO NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH BUBBLE HIGH DEVELOPMENT OVER ONTARIO AND LIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FAVORING ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTING CLOSER TO
THE LAKE MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR COAST. THAT IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE
CAN MANAGE ENOUGH INLAND COLD TO DRIVE WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...AND GIVEN OUR HISTORY THIS WINTER...REALLY BELIEVE WE
MAY. IF WE DON`T DECOUPLE...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR RIDING OVERHEAD INTO THURSDAY SHOULD MANAGE TO
GIVE US SOME SUNSHINE MIXED IN WITH MOSTLY NONSENSE LAKE
CLOUDS/FLURRIES...BEFORE "WARM" ADVECTION KICKS INTO GEAR VIA
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOOKING QUITE
WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD AS WE MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOT FLOW
JUST OFF THE DECK...WITH ACTUAL TEMPS HEADING UPWARD BUT WIND CHILL
VALUES STILL ON THE QUITE COLD SIDE. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP IN THAT RETURN FLOW LATER FRIDAY...BUT ONLY AFTER WE
SATURATE QUITE THE DEPTH OF DRY AIR AT THE ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

WEAKLY AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS NEARING 40 DEGREES ON
TUESDAY. SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME WEAK WAA MAY
BRING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND NUISANCE CLOUDS...BUT NO
REAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING TO FINISH
OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS OVERNIGHT...

SUMMARY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR
IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS.

RESTRICTIONS: GENERALLY MVFR ATTM AT THE TERMINALS WITH NO CURRENT
REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS EVENING.  TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...A
FLARE UP OF SHSN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD
FRONT...LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS...WITH CIGS REMAINING MVFR. EXPECT CIGS TO INCREASE
TO VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING AT APN-PLN...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AT MBL-TVC WITH SOME LAKE
INDUCED FLURRIES/SHSN.

WINDS:  WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12G20KTS
OVERNIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY VEERING NORTHWESTERLY AND CONTINUING
12G20KTS FOR THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.

LLWS:  WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT FOR A TIME BEFORE MIXING
TO THE SURFACE AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND WILL THUS CONTINUE
MENTION OF LLWS OF 30KTS NEAR 1.5KFT FOR A TIME THIS EVENING AT
TVC-PLN-APN...BEFORE THIS ENDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ARNOTT
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...ARNOTT