Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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440
FXUS63 KAPX 190812
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
312 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

...Some clouds today and not quite as warm...

High impact weather potential...none.

500mb ridge axis will move east from the eastern Dakotas to the
western lakes thru tonight, amplifying somewhat as it does so. At
the surface, low pressure is departing across Quebec. A trailing
cold front is north of Superior. A stratus deck extends either side
of this front, and is encroaching on central/northern Superior.
However, this cloud deck has been deteriorating somewhat as it moves
south.

Today...couple of sources of clouds today, though the stratus
to the north is the primary concern. Patchy mid and high clouds are
found in the broad warm advection zone, from ND to WI and building
into MI. No one in northern MI will have the crystal-clear skies of
yesterday. But the thickest clouds, those with the biggest potential
impacts on temps, will try to encroach from the north. How big a
push will they make? Probably less than earlier expected; holes
within the broader cloud deck have growing during the overnight
hours.

Areas of lower clouds will definitely make eastern upper MI by, or
just after, sunrise. PLN/APN will at least get grazed by this cloud
cover at times. But overall, we`re looking at a forecast a bit less
cloudy that the inherited one. Still enough cloud cover to somewhat
limit temps in northern sections, where highs will be "only` around
40f (normal high at the Sault is 27f). Upper 40s to around 50f will
be seen in southern areas. These do not seriously threaten record
highs.

Tonight...high pressure will slide se-ward across southern Hudson
and James Bays. This will amp up return flow in the plains states,
but not so much here...not yet. An fgen-related band of mid/upper-
level moisture will only make slow eastward progress across northern
MI. The MBL area will be partly cloudy to perhaps mostly clear at
times; the rest of northern MI will partly to at times mostly
cloudy. May be enough breaks for a touch of fog to form as temps
fall back to dew point levels, but don`t expect this to be a major
problem. Min temps will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

...Widespread rain Monday night...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal, but given all the recent
snowmelt will have to monitor river levels with widespread rain
Monday night into Tuesday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Axis of anomalous upper ridge will push
eastward across northern Michigan on Monday with concurrent strong
WAA in the low levels. With southeast boundary layer winds, PWATs
will only slowly increase through the first half of the day. Ahead
of a potent shortwave and cold front approaching from the west
Monday evening, strong southerly flow will bring a rapid influx of
moisture into the Upper Great Lakes with PWATs likely climbing above
1 inch. This is 3 to 5 standard deviations above the mean for late
February and would be only the second instance of a PWAT >= 1 inch
recorded by KAPX in February. That being said, the system will be
pretty fast-moving, and most model guidance suggests just over a
half inch of QPF across eastern Upper and Tip of the Mitt where the
strongest forcing will be found nearest to the shortwave. Further
south, decent frontogenetic forcing will accompany the cold front,
but resultant QPF looks to be closer to a quarter inch. The front
also will not result in a big drop in temperature, as WAA quickly
ramps up again Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Primary Forecast Concerns...A quarter to half inch or so of QPF on
top of nearly saturated ground from all the recent snow melt could
lead to efficient runoff and substantial rises on area small streams
and rivers. Timing of the rain is muddled a bit by some differences
between the models, but it looks like it will hold off until after
00Z Tuesday and mostly exit the area by late Tuesday morning. A
rumble of thunder or two not completely out of the question across
our south Monday night given a little elevated instability. Another
complicating factor with this system will be the impact that low
level temperatures across far eastern Upper have on possible ptypes
as the precip arrives Monday evening. GFS forecast soundings are
warmer than the NAM and support just rain, whereas the NAM and some
SREF members show the possibility of a bit of freezing rain and/or
sleet given a big warm nose aloft. Surface temperatures will
actually be rising overnight, so any threat for wintry precip across
eastern Upper will end around midnight with no significant impacts
anticipated. Highs Monday will range from the upper 30s north to low
50s south, and on Tuesday low 40s north to mid 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...Potentially significant system may
bring wintry precipitation and gusty winds to the region Friday into
Saturday.

Dry weather returns for Tuesday night, but a fast moving clipper-
type system will brush northern Michigan Wednesday
afternoon/evening. While the GFS keeps most of the precip over
eastern Upper, the 19.00Z ECMWF shifted a little bit further south,
bringing impacts farther into northern Lower like the CMC. Will just
be rain to start, but a cold front dropping south across the area
Wednesday night will allow for a transition to snow overnight.

Focus then shifts to a potentially strong storm system to close out
the week as a strong mid level wave of energy surges through the
Southwest on Thursday, causing rapid cyclogenesis over the Southern
Plains. Strong WAA out ahead of this negatively tilted system will
bring widespread precipitation to the Upper Great Lakes Friday into
Saturday before it eventually lifts out of the region by late
Saturday. As is to be expected this far out, there are the usual
timing, track, and strength uncertainties...but the writing is on
the wall for a potentially significant system to impact our area.
However, exactly what its impacts will be (snow? wintry mix? rain?
wind?) remain to be seen. Regardless, temperatures will definitely
be noticeably colder heading into next weekend, and that will likely
set the stage for our next chance of more widespread snow from this
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1038 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

...Possible stratus issues on Sunday...

Cold front stretches across Ontario, slowly sagging down toward
the northern lakes region dragging widespread stratus toward the
northern Great Lakes. Front will just glance the northern part of
the state late tonight into Sunday with shallow colder air and
possible stratus working into parts of northern lower Michigan and
impacting mainly PLN/APN. But, forecast confidence remains on the
lower side for stratus getting this far south of the bridge.
However, given persistent signals in guidance and satellite
trends, have trended PLN/APN terminal forecasts to a period of
MVFR cigs on Sunday. MBL and TVC should remain VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

Low pressure will depart Quebec, while high pressure gradually
moves se toward James Bay tonight. Our winds will remain
relatively light for this period, mainly w to nw today and
variable tonight. Se winds will increase Monday behind the high,
and some small craft advisories could enter the picture then or
Monday night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...TBA
MARINE...JZ



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