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000
FXUS63 KAPX 060313
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1013 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY AND THURSDAY...PROVIDING A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH LATER FRIDAY...
YIELDING A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW...BEFORE DRY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

OUTSIDE OF SOME VERY THIN CIRRUS NEAR/S OF M-55...SKIES ARE
ESSENTIALLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN MI. SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES
TO TRY TO POKE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NE. MEANWHILE...A TOUCH OF
LAKE-INDUCED TROFFING RUNS DOWN THE SPINE OF LAKE MI. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO IS TIGHTEST OVER NW LOWER MI. THAT HAS
PREVENTED TOTAL DECOUPLING THERE...AT LEAST IN PLACES (MBL/
CAD/HTL/CVX). STRAITS AREA IS ALSO MAINTAINING A HINT OF AN EAST
BREEZE. ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE CALM OR LAND-BREEZE DOMINATED...AND
TEMPS ARE ALREADY COOOOOOLD (APN -8F...PLN -7...OSC -4...EVEN TVC
IS -2). THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT...BUT
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SUBSTANTIAL RECOUPLING.

THE MIN TEMP FORECAST IS THUS QUITE PROBLEMATIC...WITH
CONSIDERABLE LOCAL VARIANCES (ACB OF ALL PLACES IS STILL HANGING
AT 11F). PLACES SHELTERED FROM AN E TO SE WIND WILL BE VERY
COLD...AND WILL BE LOWERING TEMPS IN MORE PLACES THAN I WILL BE
RAISING THEM. (TVC IN PARTICULAR NEEDS TO BE LOWERED TO AROUND
-10F.)

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

CERTAINLY TOOK LONG ENOUGH...BUT MOST OF THE LAKE-EFFECT CLOUD
COVER INTO NE LOWER MI IS FINALLY GONE. STILL SOME STRATOCU
REMNANTS NEAR OSC...AND WOULD NOT PRECLUDE A FEW PATCHES REFORMING
FURTHER NORTH...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT HUNG ON ALL DAY TODAY.
WE DO HAVE SOME CIRRUS TO THE SOUTH...MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF
M-55. WILL WATCH HOW TEMPS BEHAVE...BUT NO CHANGES TO THOSE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT FOR MOST...

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1039 MB HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO
SHOW SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.
THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CLOUDS (IF ANY)
AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

BELIEVE IT OR NOT WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH LOW CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE
HURON ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS DESPITE VERY DRY AIR
IN PLACE WITH MEAN 900-700 MB RH LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. AM STILL
FULLY ANTICIPATING THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS
OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WANES AND THE DRIER AIR WINS OUT.
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO FURTHER EXTEND THE CLOUDS ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS DECOUPLING THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN. LOW LEVEL WINDS DO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ABOUT
20 KNOTS BY 06Z THEN AROUND 25 KNOTS BY 12Z THU BUT WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON WINDS AT THE SURFACE. DESPITE THIS HAVE LOWERED MINS DOWN
INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN
LOWER AND NEAR 10 BELOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND ZERO TO 5 BELOW
ACROSS COASTAL LOCATIONS. MOST OF THE DROP EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
THEN TEMPS MAY TEND TO STEADY OFF AFTER THAT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

OVERVIEW: CROSS POLAR TROUGHINESS OF COURSE STILL THE NAME OF THE
GAME TO START THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH ANCHORING TROUGHS (AND
COLDEST AIR) ALONG 50W (FAR NE CANADA) AND 120E (EASTERN ASIA).
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC ALTHOUGH WITH SUBTLE TROUGHINESS
JUST EAST OF THE DATE LINE LEADING INTO DOWNSTREAM SUBTLE RIDGING
OVER WESTERN NOAM THEN FEEDING INTO AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER TROUGHING
IN NE CANADA. SO...A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
MILDER PACIFIC AIR ATTEMPTING TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE LOWER 48
STATES. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME OF THAT "WARMER" AIR TO SPREAD
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND EDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS ALTHOUGH COLD AIR NEVER GETS TO FAR DISPLACED NORTH...HOVERING
ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF CANADA AND THREATENING TO SLIP BACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES LATER THIS WEEKEND. NEXT WEEK...RECENT MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST UPPER TROUGHING AND CORE OF COLD AIR OVER
EASTERN ASIA GETS DISPLACED TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT...ONCE AGAIN
FORCING SHARP RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN NOAM BY MIDWEEK AND ONCE AGAIN
DISLODGING ARCTIC AIR SOUTH. THE REALLY COLD STUFF DOESN/T GET THIS
FAR SOUTH (IT IS EARLY MARCH AFTER ALL) BUT GUIDANCE TRENDS RIGHT NOW
DO SUGGEST WE DROP BACK OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME
PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

UPSHOT FOR THE EXTENDED...CERTAINLY NOT A PATTERN CONDUCIVE TO ANY
BIG WEATHER MAKERS WITH JUST A COUPLE "DRIER" NRN STREAM SYSTEMS
LOOKING TO MOVE THROUGH. TEMPS TREND TO AT OR EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK DOWN NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING WHILE
MAINTAINING CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE. SO STILL EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL DEFINITELY WARM UP
TOMORROW AS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW PULLS SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER
LOW-MID LEVEL AIR INTO THE NRN LAKES WITH H8 TEMPS PUSHING -3C BY
AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH WE WILL NOT MIX TO ANYWHERE NEAR THAT LEVEL).
BUT WE SHOULD EASILY GET INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S (AND PERHAPS
WARMER) WITH GOOD SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY JUDGING BY TODAYS TEMPERATURE
REBOUND AND PEAK SOLAR READINGS TOPPING 800 W/M2 TODAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH STILL
LOOKING TO SKIRT THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AND ACROSS ONTARIO ON
FRIDAY. BAGGY SFC TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE GETS
PUSHED THROUGH THE NRN LAKES/ONTARIO REGION WITH THE TROUGH. BUT AS
HAS BEEN DISCUSSED...MAIN FORCING SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH...AND THERE
IS SIMPLY NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK ON TO BEGIN WITH. SO...CHANCY
POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW STARTING IN THE FAR NW PART OF THE CWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY STILL LOOKS
APPROPRIATE AT THIS POINT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE NRN PART OF THE CWA.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
DRAGGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE STATE AND H8 TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS. NOT AS COLD AS WE/VE BEEN BUT LOWER TO MID 20S
CERTAINLY...BUT ALSO WITH ANOTHER DAY OF DECENT SUNSHINE THANKS TO
ASSOCIATED WEDGE OF DRY AIR WORKING THROUGH THE REGION AND FROZEN
GREAT LAKES.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ONE MORE NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE/CLIPPER-ISH
SYSTEM LOOKING TO SLIP THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL SOME FORECAST TIMING/PLACEMENT DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE
EURO/GFS SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. EITHER WAY...IT/S NOT MUCH OF A
SYSTEM TO WORRY MUCH ABOUT WITH AGAIN LIMITED MOISTURE AND BEST
FORCING SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH. HAVE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE
FAR NRN PART OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND EXPANDING DOWN THROUGH NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. AGAIN...NOT
A BIG DEAL BUT LATER ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING/ETC WILL LIKELY BE MADE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES PERSIST FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CHANGE IN
REGARD TO THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS. THERE IS
SOME LOOSE AGREEMENT/SUGGESTION OF A BETTER ORGANIZED SYSTEM
POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE REGION ANYWHERE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BUT AGAIN...LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE INCLUDED SNOW CHANCES ON TUESDAY
WHICH APPEARS THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT THIS POINT. BUT EXPECT
CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST WED MAR 5 2014

VFR.

IT TOOK ALL DAY...BUT AT 23Z APN FINALLY MANAGED TO SCT OUT THEIR
EXTREMELY STUBBORN MVFR DECK. DON/T EXPECT IT TO RETURN...AS
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY CUT OFF THE BEST FETCH OFF
OF LAKE HURON. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE WILL MOVE AWAY...WITH
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR ENTERING THE
REGION. AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF CIRRUS AND...NEAR APN...A FEW TUFTS
OF STRATOCU.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...S TO SSE BREEZE ON THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...ADAM
AVIATION...JZ