Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KAPX 301100
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
700 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY/ENDING IN DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SOMEWHAT
WAVY COLD FRONT FROM NORTHWEST QUEBEC...ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A
1007MB FRONTAL WAVE WAS LOCATED...AND BACK INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/
SOUTH DAKOTA.  SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR
LOW ACROSS FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. WELL
DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY CENTER IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER SPINNING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND PUSHING A LEFTOVER
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR/ UPPER
MICHIGAN AND INTO LAKE MICHIGAN.  AWAY FROM THIS PRECIP/CLOUD BAND
SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SAVE
FOR AN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

1-2MB/3H PRESSURE RISES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE THE COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY ALONG WITH
A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE AND SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT.  ALMOST
LOOKS LIKE FRONT WILL SPLIT INTO TWO PIECES...ONE THAT DRAGS ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTACHED TO THE PASSING SURFACE WAVE...WITH
A SECOND BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT THAT MAY NOT DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AS A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION THROUGH TONIGHT.

TODAY...EXPECT RAIN BAND SLOWLY MIGRATING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TO
PUSH INTO FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AND PROBABLY SLOWLY PIVOT AROUND WITH TIME WHICH
WILL MOSTLY KEEP IT WEST OF I-75 THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE BODILY
MOVING EAST AS 700MB TROUGH AXIS CROSSES LOWER MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE...HEATING AHEAD OF THIS RAIN BAND EXPECTED TO GENERATE A
BIT OF INSTABILITY (UPWARDS OF 500J/KG MLCAPE).  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A "DIURNAL EXPANSION" OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE EASTWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES (WITH
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER).  EXPECT MORE CLOUDS/RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY
(HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S)...WITH HIGHS 70-75 ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER.

TONIGHT...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT EARLY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN
QUICKLY WEST OF US-131 EARLY ON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  IR/FOG IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD DEAL OF POST-
COLD FRONT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/WESTERN UPPER/NORTHERN
ONTARIO...THAT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME
PATCHY DRIZZLE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: BEEN GONE FOR OVER A
WEEK...AND THE LARGE SCALE NOAM PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE (THAN
AGAIN...WHY WOULD IT?). MOST PROMINENT FEATURES REMAIN RECORD
SETTING WESTERN HEAT DOME/RIDGE...WITH ELONGATED TROUGHING REMAINING
STEADFAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LATTER...AND SIMPLY
LOOKS TO REMAIN SO FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WHILE OVERHEAD FLOW
REGIME REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES REINFORCE
TROUGHING...BACKGROUND PATTERN WILL REMAIN A DRY ONE...WITH ALL DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRAPPED WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST. SO...PERHAPS MORE SIMPLY PUT...JUST MORE OF THE SAME OLD
SAME OLD INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: REALLY...NOT A WHOLE LOT. MAIN
EMPHASIS ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGHOUT AND VERY SMALL RAIN CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY.

DETAILS: WEDNESDAY REMAINS THE MOST NEBULOUS PERIOD OF THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST...WITH JUST ENOUGH LINGERING TROUGHING/MOISTURE TO
PERHAPS KICK OFF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DROPPING
DOWN BACKSIDE OF SLOWLY DEPARTING TROUGH LOOKS TO OFFER LITTLE...IF
ANY...DEEP LAYER SUPPORT. GUIDANCE DERIVED SOUNDINGS/CROSS SECTION
MOISTURE ANALYSIS DEFINITELY HAS THE LOOKS OF PLENTY OF MORNING
STCU/STRATUS...PERHAPS NEGATING ANY APPRECIABLE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY. SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED SHOWER WORDING WON`T HURT THINGS
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER NORTHEAST LOWER...BUT
DEFINITELY MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. ELONGATED AND SLOW
MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT DRY AND
INCREASINGLY CLEAR WEATHER. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN WILL HELP
MODIFY A RATHER UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS...BUT STILL EXPECT
DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

REALLY...JUST MORE OF THE SAME. SURFACE HIGH AND ITS MID LEVEL
LIKENESS GIVES WAY TO NEXT APPROACHING WAVE LATER FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS ONE...MUCH LIKE MOST OF ITS RECENT
PREDECESSORS...APPEARS LARGELY MOISTURE STARVED. ANTICIPATED
CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD ONLY FURTHER INTERFERE
WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION THIS FAR NORTH. WHILE CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE AN ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR TWO LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING...PROBS OF SUCH SIMPLY MUCH TOO LOW FOR A SPECIFIC
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES
THEREAFTER...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ONE PLEASANT HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

TIMING UNCERTAINTIES ARE MANY WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE MORE ROBUST AND
MOISTURE RICH WAVE SET TO ARRIVE SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIMPLE
CHANCE SHOWER/STORM WORDING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SUFFICE
FOR NOW...WAITING FOR BETTER INTRA AND INTER MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR
MORE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL RESOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

RAIN MAY BRING SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VARY ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS TODAY
DEPENDING ON LOCATION RELATIVE TO PASSING SURFACE LOW.  WINDS ON
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.  EASTERLY WINDS ON WHITEFISH BAY WILL ALSO
BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION WITHIN LAKE HURON NEARSHORE ZONES (AUGMENTED BY
LAKE BREEZE COMPONENT) THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...HEADLINE CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
MARINE...JPB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.