Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 241708
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
108 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Updated the forecast earlier for lower dew points and subsequent
humidities. Especially low values will be found away from a gusty
southeast cooling effect off Lake Huron. Generally along and west
of Interstate 75 will be the driest this afternoon. Otherwise,
high pressure in Ontario will provide another beautiful nrn
Michigan day. Only some occasional high level cirrus drifting in
from the west, and some lower cloud scraping areas around
Whitefish Point. Expected high temperatures still look good with
warm readings in the 60s in much of NW lower, and cooler 40s/50s
in NE lower/eastern upper due to that SE wind.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...Mild, dry weather continues...

High Impact Weather Potential: Watching another possible round of
low relative humidity for parts of northern lower Michigan this
afternoon.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Fast zonal upper level flow continues
across the area on south side of deep mid level closed low
pinwheeling into northwest Quebec. Passing cold front of yesterday
now stalling out to our south, the western extent of which is
already showing signs of returning north across the Northern Plains
under intensifying waa regime ahead of Intermountain West wave. Band
of light rain/snow showers well north of this front into the
northwest Lakes. Otherwise, just another quiet night across the
north woods, with plenty of mid and upper level clouds across the
northern reaches of the area.

Some changes expected to start to take place today and tonight as
surface high to our north slides off to the southeast, all-the-while
low pressure pushes across the Plains into the northern Mississippi
Valley by later tonight. Southeast flow will gradually gain steam
across our area between these systems. Stationary front over the
lower Lakes makes little progress north today, while making a much
more definitive northward push as a warm front just to our west.
That changes tonight as the front races north across our area in
response to that low pushing into northern Minnesota.

Primary forecast concerns: Temperature and cloud trends through
tonight. How low relative humidity plummets again this afternoon
across parts of northern lower.

Details: Not a whole lot going on this morning, with well elevated
waa regime bringing some thicker high and mid level overcast across
the northern half of the area. Moisture at one point looked just
deep enough to produce a flurry/sprinkle near Whitefish Point,
although simple upstream radar extrapolation suggests any precip
will now push across Lake Superior. Still appears clouds will mix
out later this morning and afternoon, resulting in at least partly
cloudy skies to the north. Much more sun expected across the south
half of the area through the day. As mentioned, southeast flow
steadily increases, resulting in a rather robust temperature
gradient. Lake Huron air conditioning will be on full throttle
across eastern upper and northeast lower Michigan, keeping highs in
those areas in the 40s and 50s. Much warmer for northwest lower
Michigan, with excellent downslope enhancement pushing temperatures
well into the 60s south of M-68 and along/west of interstate 75.
This once again raises some fire weather concerns with dearth of low
level moisture and increased mixing combining to tank relative
humidity values to near critical levels in those same areas this
afternoon. Winds will also be a touch stronger than the last few
days. Will continue to highlight these concerns in our latest fire
weather forecast products.

Winds slowly turn more southerly overnight as the front bows north
through the region. Airmass, however, remains a dry one, with all
deep layer theta-e advection, mid level wave support, and forcing
from low level jet removed to our northwest. Clouds will be on the
increase as higher level saturation develops, but think area does
remain dry through the overnight. Maintenance of winds will
definitely keep it a much milder night, with lows largely in the
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...Increasing shower chances...

Energy evident on water vapor imagery just off the Pacific Northwest
coast will move across the Rockies then into the Plains over the
next couple of days. This system will eventually swing through the
Great Lakes during the midweek period. This is expected to bring
showery weather to the region as early as late Tuesday across
northwest zones and across much of the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday (all the way into Thursday). There is even a small chance
for a few thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. It will be warm through
this period with highs ranging from the upper 50s north to the lower
and perhaps middle 70s southeast. Lows in the middle 40s to middle
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...More showers Thursday and again this weekend...

The western system will take its time clearing the area Thursday
with a cold front finally moving across the region. This will result
in additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. Cooler
behind the front with weak high pressure building in Friday. The dry
weather looks short lived as another system emerges out of the
Plains and likely brings more showery weather to the region over the
upcoming weekend. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees
below late April averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...VFR...

High pressure extending from Ontario into Quebec, combined with a
warm front that will lift into the region tonight, will resulting
in a strengthening pressure gradient and gusty SE winds over the
TAF period. This increased wind will also bring about LLWS issues
tonight. No precipitation will occur, but we will see an influx of
higher level clouds from the west tonight, and increasing lower
level VFR CIGS from the SE on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Southeast flow expected to strengthen today and tonight,
the result of an tightening pressure gradient between retreating
high pressure and organizing low pressure advancing through the
Northern Plains. Despite increasing over-water stability, winds look
strong enough to produce small craft advisory conditions,
particularly through and either side of the Straits. Southeast flow
also produces excellent enhancement up through the St. Marys river
and Whitefish Bay. Gusty southeast winds continue through Tuesday
morning, decreasing some in speed as they veer a touch more
southerly Tuesday afternoon and night.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ341-342.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Tuesday
     for LMZ323-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...MSB


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