Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 162349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
749 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Cold front has stalled across the SE part of our CWA this
afternoon...holding along a line between HTL and OSC. A few light
showers linger along and south of this line...with the back edge of
the low cloud shield just to the north. Temps have warmed a few
degrees thru the 60s in a power play between weak CAA and increasing
sunshine this afternoon.

In the meantime...low pressure continues to develop to the lee of
the Rockies...with an associated warm front beginning to lift
northward thru the Mid Mississippi Valley toward the Western Great
Lakes region. This warm front will plow northward into the Southern
Great Lakes overnight and thru Michigan on Monday. Back edge of the
low cloud shield will just reach our southern CWA border early this
evening before lifting back northward later this evening and
overnight in advance of that warm front. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop along and in advance of this front...beginning in our
SW CWA by around 06Z and spreading across the rest of our CWA by
12Z. MUCAPES increase to near 1000 J/kg by afternoon as good 850 mb
theta E ridging lifts into the region with the warm front. Wind
fields strengthen as well...but area of greatest shear will develop
late tonight/early Monday morning ahead of the warm front before a
significant increase in instability and theta E occurs. Certainly
expect thunder to develop...but potential for severe is very iffy
attm given key ingredients do not seem to coincide. This notion is
in agreement with SPC Day 1 outlook for general thunder across our

Temps will remain quite unseasonably mild over the next 24 hours or
so. Low temps tonight will range from the upper 40s in Eastern Upper
Michigan to the upper 50s across our far southern CWA where WAA
begins sooner overnight. High temps on Monday will range from the
mid 60s in Eastern Upper Michigan to the lower 70s in our southern
CWA despite widespread precip development and plenty of cloudy cover.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Synoptic pattern: Topsy turvy fall weather pattern the next several
days as fast moving Pacific flow brings western trough eastward into
the Great Lakes.  An area of low pressure will push into Lake
Superior Monday night, helping to drag a cold front into the western
lakes.  This front will sweep through northern Michigan on Tuesday.

Tightening pressure gradient Monday night as surface low deepens to
sub 990mb heading into eastern Lake Superior.  Still plenty of
question marks on the evolution of precipitation during this
timeframe, tied to exact track of surface low/upper level energy.
Deepest moisture and forcing focused from far northwest lower into
eastern upper closer to the warm front, and this is where the
highest rain chances will reside.  Still a low end potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms during the evening, with elevated
instability north of the warm front over upper Michigan.  Also have
concerns for potential supercell development in the warm sector,
tied to whether we can develop stronger surface based updrafts in
strongly sheared environment.  Certainly something to watch, as
large hail and damaging winds (even tornadoes?) would be a

No doubt southwest winds will become quite gusty area-wide Monday
night into Tuesday morning, with a corridor of 50kt+ H10-H8 winds up
the spine of Lake Michigan.  May get near wind advisory criteria in
some areas later Monday night into Tuesday morning (especially
coastal locations on Lake Michigan where 40+ mph gusts are possible)
and will highlight the winds in the HWO and our weather graphics.
Unusually mild temperatures continue, with some areas possibly
remaining in the 60s for overnight lows on Monday night.  Not a lot
of moisture with the front itself and probably just a few showers -
especially over northern areas.

Quieter and a bit cooler on Wednesday, although the much cooler air
will not work into the area until later in the week.  Winds
remaining on the gusty side from the northwest, at 15 to 25 mph.


Extended Forecast: (Thursday through Sunday)...Short wave trough
slowly crossing the nation`s midsection will be moving into the
Great Lakes region later Thursday...evolution of this trough heading
into the weekend is in question with regard to whether the trough
splits with a substantial piece of energy left over in the southern
branch over the southeastern states/Gulf of Mexico.  Extended period
may start out dry...potential for Ohio Valley cyclogenesis Thursday
may bring some deformation precipitation on its backside into
Michigan.  But that too is overall forecast for the
end of the week will mostly consist of various periods (e.g., Friday
and Sunday) of low chance PoPs until guidance can show better
agreement on latching onto a particular feature.  Temperatures
expected to be near to below normal through the period.



.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 749 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

...Deteriorating conditions again...

Dry air had leaked through the TAF sites through the day behind a
cold front that is now lingering around M-55. Temp/Dew Point
spreads were quite minimal down there where there was less mixing
today. Am expecting fog/stratus to be an issue at MBL into the
evening. The front will lift back north as a warm front, bringing
stratus/fog and periods of rain/drizzle to all TAF sites later
tonight and into Monday night. Conditions expected to improve at
TVC/MBL later Monday afternoon and evening, and less at PLN/APN.

Gonna have to deal with LLWS a couple of times over the TAF
period. The first will be Monday morning into a portion of Monday
afternoon, before redeveloping again Monday evening.


Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016

A warm front will lift through Michigan late tonight and Monday. The
associated deepening low pressure will track just west of our area
late Monday night...dragging a cold front thru Michigan on Tuesday.
Winds and waves will build to SCA criteria late tonight as the warm
front arrives...and will remain at SCA criteria Monday...Monday
night and thru much of Tuesday as this complex system impacts
Michigan. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will also impact our
area beginning late tonight and continuing thru Tuesday morning.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 AM Monday to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for



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