Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 311529
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1129 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1129 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STRATUS IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN IN NORTHERN LOWER MI (NEAR/SOUTH
OF M-68). THINGS WILL GO QUICKLY FROM THIS POINT. HOWEVER...STRATUS
DECK REMAINS PRETTY SOLID OVER THE STRAITS AND EASTERN
UPPER...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF BREAKS NEAR WHITEFISH BAY. WILL
TAKE TIL 1-2PM TO ERODE CLOUD COVER UP THERE. HAVE SUPPRESSED MAX
TEMPS JUST A TOUCH MORE MORE. EVENTUAL MAX TEMPS 10-15F ABOVE
CURRENT READINGS LOOK QUITE REACHABLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STRATUS/FOG IS RATHER EXPANSIVE ACROSS NORTHERN MI. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE PARTS OF THE LEELANAU/BENZIE COASTLINE...AND THE NE LOWER MI
COAST SOUTH OF ROGERS (THOUGH STRATUS IS EXPANDING INTO APN).
GIVEN TRENDS HERE AND UPSTREAM YESTERDAY...HAVE GONE WITH MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN NORTHERN MI THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATING
STRATUS WILL BREAK DOWN IN A BIG WAY TOWARD MIDDAY. THIS SLOWER
CLEARING TREND ALSO SUPPORTS LOWERING MAX TEMPS 1-2F IN MOST OF
NORTHERN MI.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SOUTHWARD THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. 500 MB TROUGH HAS
PUSHED EAST OF MICHIGAN AS A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA ATTM...BUT AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS
ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS WINDS BECOME CALM/LIGHT AND TEMP/DWPT
SPREADS SHRINK.

EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL AGAIN GRADUALLY EXPAND
BELOW THE NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THRU EARLY
MORNING. ONCE DIURNAL MIXING BEGINS AFTER SUNRISE...FOG AND LOW
STRATUS SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE...WITH
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WEAK WAA
WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT JUST EAST OF
MICHIGAN. WAA COMBINED WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE AND WINDS BECOME CALM...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP.
EXPECT A MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS AS LOW TEMPS ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: NONE

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE: THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOONS MIDWEEK
(WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY)

(9/1)TUESDAY...THE 500 MB RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LOOKS A
BIT FLAT THROUGH THE DAY AS WEAK 500 MB TROUGHING MOVES OVER THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH A WEAK FRONT/SFC TROUGH
THAT LOOKS TO TRY AND KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD ONLY AFFECT E UPPER AS THE
SYSTEM GETS STRETCHED OUT OVERNIGHT, AND A NEW 500 MB SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BY 12Z/WED.

(9/2)WEDNESDAY...THE DAY SHOULD START OUT DRY AS THE WITH THE
RIDGING HELPING TO KEEP A LID ON ANY CONVECTION UNTIL THE AFTERNOON,
WHEN THE MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S HIGHS BEGIN
TO BREAK THE CAP OVER THE INLAND AREAS. WILL EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE SINGLE CELL CONVECTION AROUND THE INTERIOR OF THE UPPER AND LOWER
MICHIGAN, ALTHOUGH WOULD EXPECT THAT N LOWER HAS THE BETTER SHOT AT
CONVECTION WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

THURSDAY, AND MAYBE EVEN
FRIDAY, LOOK LIKE A NEAR COPY OF WEDNESDAY AS THE 500 MB RIDGE
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS AND MID
80S HIGHS. ACTUALLY, WITH THE PATTERN THE WAY IT IS, A SLOW MOVING
500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SUNDAY IS THE
QUESTION MARK FOR THE EXTENDED, AS THE TIMING FROM THE MODELS SHOWS
THE GFS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS IN DURING THE DAY,
WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS THEM OFF UNTIL MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA
PUT FORTH FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS DIURNAL
MIXING COMMENCES AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR AND PERSISTING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HR TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW AT AROUND 10 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO OUR SE. AREAS FOG WILL AGAIN IMPACT THE
NEARSHORE AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA
CRITERIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SW WINDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER
PUSHES FURTHER SE AWAY FROM MICHIGAN.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
MARINE...MLR



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