Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 290621
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
121 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...SOME LIGHT SNOW...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SHALLOW MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL WARMING
FROM YESTERDAY IS SHUNTING OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS TROUGH HAS TWO
EMBEDDED AND WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOWS. ONE IS
CROSSING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE OTHER IS CROSSING INTO
FAR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG DEEP LAYER WAA IS ALREADY
OCCURRING OVERHEAD WITH 50-60KT LLJ..AS WELL AS A POCKET OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A DOUBLE JET STRUCTURE ALOFT...AND RADAR
HINTS AT SOME FGEN ALOFT. THIS FORCING IS TRYING HARD TO SATURATE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THUS FAR...WE STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY SUB 750MB
LAYER...AND ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOWS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REACH GROUND
(ALTHOUGH EXPANDING). THE BETTER ECHOES WERE LIFTING INTO EASTERN
UPPER...WHILE ANOTHER POCKET OF SNOW IS LIFTING OUT OF NE LOWER
(ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE) TOWARD SW LOWER
MICHIGAN.

FURTHER NORTH...MUCH COLDER AIR IS SEEN BACK BEHIND THE NRN SFC
LOW...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THERE`S A LOT
GOING ON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW RIGHT NOW...BUT IT`S
TRYING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

ALL OF THE FORCING DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE NRN
MICHIGAN THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH SOME BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRYING TO BE LIFTED UP INTO THE REGION. SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. ALL OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL EXIT THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER...AS THE SFC LOWS
ARRIVE. A TERTIARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT THEN RACES SE IN STRONG FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP FORCE THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR THROUGH US DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS ALSO TIGHTENS UP THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY..AND THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS OF LOW LEVEL FGEN.
REALLY QUITE THE MESSY FORCING/PATTERN OUT THERE...AND SNOWS WILL BE
BASICALLY DEVELOPING OVERHEAD FOR THIS "EVENT". UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHILE WATCHING RADAR THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BUT FEELING IS THAT THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MAY BE A TAD
TOO HIGH AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THE POCKET OF SNOW SHOULD EXPAND
AND LIFT TOWARD NE LOWER...WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOWS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG SFC TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN SFC LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE POSSIBLE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FGEN IS LIKELY
TO BRING A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THAT COLD FRONT...INTO THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

AM THINKING OF A GENERAL 1-2" WITH PORTIONS OF NE LOWER POSSIBLY
SEEING 3"...AND MORE TRACE MOUNTS CLOSER TO THE MANISTEE AREA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HEADING INTO TONIGHT...NNW WINDS INCREASE
AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE...DOWNWIND OF LESS ICE COVERAGE AND GREATER INSTABILITY.
H8 TEMPERATURES CRASH INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND WHILE MOISTURE
WILL BE MORE SCANT THAN ANYTHING...LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT/MINIMAL.
INVERSION HEIGHTS AVERAGING 4000-4500 FEET...COLDER THAN OPTIMAL
TEMPS AND AND A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER. THIS TO LEAD TO MAYBE
AND INCH ACROSS THE GTV BAY...A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS FOR GREATER FETCH AND LESS ICE
COVER. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ALSO LIKELY SCRAPING ROGERS CITY/ALPENA
AREAS WHERE THERE IS MORE OPEN WATER.

CURRENT MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATER THIS MORNING NORTH...AND
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN LOWER. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST OF NOAM WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WORKING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BECOMING
A CUTOFF FEATURE IN THE SW CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG
WAVE TROUGHINESS REMAINS THE DOMINANT PATTERN DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM ALREADY PRODUCING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED RETURNS
RUNNING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW BEING REPORTED AT ISQ. VERY LITTLE HAPPENING BACK THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS EXCEPT SOME LIGHT PRECIP NEAR THE SFC LOW. FURTHER
UPSTREAM...ANOTHER WAVE NOTED PUSHING INTO THE NRN PLAINS/ROCKIES
AND EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH THE SRN SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
ENERGY...ELONGATED SFC LOW AND AXIS OF DECENT QG ASCENT EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DECENT "FLARE-UP" OF PRECIP ESSENTIALLY
OVER THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT. BUT AS MENTIONED...
CERTAINLY NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS A
LITTLE DISCONCERTING. BUT...GIVING THE PHASING AND DECENT
DYNAMICS...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAITH THAT WE SEE A PERIOD OF
EXPANDING SNOWFALL LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT A BIG DEAL...BUT WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS AND
A WETTER SNOW...LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD MAKE FOR SLICKER ROAD
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY. SYSTEM CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION/GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AS -12C TO -16
CO H8 AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION...EXCEPT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY
SUBSTANTIAL LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS.

FRIDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. BUT...WITH TEMPS AT THE INVERSION
NEAR -20C...LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY DESPITE THE DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH
OF THE MINOR VARIETY. CERTAINLY COLDER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE TEENS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WAIT...NOT FINISHED YET. ONE
MORE QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK-ISH SFC LOW IS SLATED TO
ZIP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MIGHT BE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM. BUT BIGGER IMPACT WILL COME FROM ENHANCED LAKE
SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BATCH OF
DEEPER MOISTURE/WEAK FORCING PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BUT
AGAIN...NOT AN IMPRESSIVE SNOW MAKER BY ANY STRETCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

THE FIRST OF TWO WEEKEND SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH ANY WEAKLY-FORCED LIGHT SHOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA COMING TO AN END DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE SECOND (AND EVEN MORE MOISTURE-STARVED) WEAK WAVE LOOKS SET TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY...PERHAPS ONLY REINFORCING COLD TEMPERATURES AND
RENEWING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEST COAST ENERGY TO EJECT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PERHAPS RESULTING IN
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SEEMINGLY...
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM WAVES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY SUPPRESSED
TO OUR SOUTH...BUT THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CHANCE THAT A BIT OF
SYNOPTIC PRECIP COULD PUSH INTO PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RIPPLE OR TWO IN
THE FLOW COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME WITH MAINLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 112 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST...

TWO SFC LOW PRESSURES WILL BRING DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOWS TO THE
AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO LOWS WILL INTERACT WITH ONE
ANOTHER...BUT THE LATEST THINKING IS FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH LOW
SNOWFALL RATES LESS THAN A HALF INCH PER HOUR. THE BETTER SNOWS
ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR APN BETWEEN 12-18Z. STILL 2
INCHES THERE...AND MAYBE 1 INCH ACROSS NW LOWER. OPTED TO LEAVE
ONGOING FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CIG HEIGHTS. TREND IS FOR DELAYING
THE IFR/MVFR.

THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AN MAY PROVIDE A
BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS. THEN...LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS STAY GUSTY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NW LOWER. MAYBE AN INCH ACROSS TVC WITH HALF INCH
MBL/APN...LESS THAN THAT AT PLN. TYPICAL MVFR CIGS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...SMD



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