Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 131712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
112 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Issued at 919 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Mostly sunny skies are evident to start the day across the
majority of northern Michigan with a bit of high cloud across
northern Lake Michigan...beginning to stream into far northwest
Lower. Lingering low clouds/fog near PLN continue to diminish as
diurnal processes take over.

Only noteworthy change to the inherited forecast thus far has
been to add mention of a lake breeze driven small threat for an
isolated shower/storm across sections of northeast Lower this
afternoon (mainly Presque Isle, Alpena, and Montmorency counties
away from Lake Huron) as latest hi-res guidance trends suggest a
few showers/storms bubbling up. The remainder of the forecast
looks good, including inherited PoPs across interior sections of
eastern Upper.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...Relative quiet weather to wrap-up the weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential...minimal. Low end chance for a
non-severe thunderstorm across eastern upper Michigan this

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Overnight surface analysis reveals
broad high pressure and a cool-ish airmass across the western
Great Lakes and Midwest region. Stalled front sags down through
Ontario where there is some showers/spotty thunderstorms through
central Ontario. Yet another compact short wave noted upstream
over the Dakotas with an attending weak surface low over South
Dakota along with showers/thunderstorms through that region.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Convection chances in eastern upper
Michigan this afternoon.

Surface high pressure will slide overhead today and just off to
the east tonight...resulting in overall quiet weather for the
region. That said...with slightly cooler air aloft heading north
through the U.P...moisture/ instability progs and forecast
soundings suggest the development of a narrow axis of conditional
instability through the inland eastern and central U.P. this much as 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE an no cap per NAM12
soundings which is probably overdone but the signal is there.
Combined with weak boundary flow and the typical lake
breeze/convergence axis that develops through that region in light
wind regimes...a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm seems
reasonable through inland eastern upper this afternoon.

Convection and afternoon diurnal CU fade quickly heading into
tonight. May see some cloud cover begin to sneak into the region
late as the upstream short wave inches toward the region. But
otherwise quiet weather and seasonal low temperatures anticipated.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Cutoff upper level low evident on water vapor imagery spinning its
wheels over the Dakotas will head slowly east reaching northern
Michigan Monday afternoon into Monday night. This is expected to
lead to scattered showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms (a few
hundred j/kg of mixed layer cape). Tuesday then looks rain free for
the most part as a weak surface high builds in. Temperatures right
around climo values.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Energy coming off the Pacific Northwest coast will dig a low
amplitude trough out across the northern Great Lakes. This system
will bring periodic chances for showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms (the best chances appear to be in the Wednesday night
into Thursday time frame). Temperatures will be near climo for the
most part except for Wednesday when it`s expected to be a few
degrees above.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Aside from a bit of patchy fog expected to develop across
northern Michigan tonight, VFR conditions are anticipated through
the TAF period as this afternoon`s lake breezes wane this evening
with winds becoming light/variable. Increasing mid cloud expected
overnight ahead of a weak area of low pressure set to cross the
region Monday-Tuesday.


Issued at 314 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Light winds/waves anticipated through Monday. Some afternoon
showers/isolated thunderstorms may develop across inland eastern
upper Michigan...which might impact the Saint Marys River system
and shower/thunderstorm chances return to the region for Monday.
But otherwise...relatively quiet weather anticipated for the start
of the week.




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