Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 171903

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
303 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...Breezy and warmer on Wednesday...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Great Lakes remain locked between strong
high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley and strong low pressure
centered over James Bay. Tight low level pressure gradient between
the two is producing gusty SW winds across Michigan. Temps have
warmed into the 60s as expected thanks to strengthening low level
WAA. Only some scattered cirrus is drifting over our CWA attm.

Upstream surface ridge axis will slide over our CWA this evening...
pushing east of our area overnight. Further strengthening of low
level flow and WAA on the backside of the surface ridge axis will
increase wind speeds on Wednesday as well as boost temps into the
mid to upper 60s on Wednesday. Otherwise...dry wx and mainly
clear skies will continue thru Wednesday.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

...Remaining on the mild side...

A moisture starved cold front will move through northern Michigan
late Wednesday night. This front will do little except for to limit
high temperatures to the upper 50s to middle 60s Thursday, which is
a few degrees cooler than Wednesday but also still a few degrees
above average for the third week of October. One thing to watch
though is the possible formation of over lake instability induced
clouds late Wednesday night into early Thursday (it`s a close call
on this one). Ridging at the surface and aloft then builds in during
the day Thursday into Friday. This will lead to warmer temperatures
once again Friday with highs ranging from the middle 60s north to
the lower 70s south. Winds will remain in the breezy category due to
a respectable surface pressure gradient. This wind should keep lows
at night in the upper 30s to middle 40s.


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

High pressure will remain over the region through the first part of
the weekend, before an approaching cold front moves into the region
possibly as early as Sunday. This will bring the next shot of
precipitation, with a clipper system set to move in quickly behind
the front. This clipper will provide a reinforcing shot of cold air,
increasing the amplitude of troughing from the Great Lakes
eastward. This will usher in the first real cold airmass of the
season towards the middle of next week. May see snow sneaking into
the extended with tomorrow`s issuance.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 101 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Subsidence and dry air thru the column will maintain VFR
conditions thru the 24 hour TAF forecast period for all Northern
Lower Michigan TAF sites. Westerly surface winds gusting to 15 to
20 kts will diminish to less than 10 kts tonight as low levels
decouple...but will again strengthen on Wednesday and shift to the
S/SW with gusts of 15 to 25 kts expected.


Issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria tonight into
early Wednesday as low level pressure gradient remains rather tight
between high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley and low pressure
centered over James Bay. Conditions may reach gale warning criteria
across our Lake Michigan nearshore areas by midday Wednesday as the
low level gradient further tightens on the backside of a departing
ridge axis. Overall dry wx is expected to continue for all of our
nearshore areas thru the workweek.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-
     GALE WARNING from noon Wednesday to midnight EDT Wednesday night
     for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ321.


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