Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KAPX 252336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
736 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

...Increasing shower chances tonight...

High pressure will continue to provide dry conditions thru this
afternoon, but with the high sliding southeast overnight clouds
will increase from the northwest to southeast with increased
chances for showers and possibly an embedded thunderstorm late
tonight closer to daybreak Wednesday.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Trough of low pressure will skirt the northern Great Lakes Wed,
with the frontal boundary sagging south across the forecast area.
But with a somewhat progressive flow, the boundary will continue
to push south by Thur morning as yet another ridge of high
pressure builds in from the northwest. This will then return dry
conditions to the region thru Fri with temps becoming more
seasonal in the mid/upr 70s to near 80 away from the Lakes. Weak
pressure gradient may allow light lake breeze development, and
subsequently cool areas adjacent.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...

Ensembles are in good agreement with ridging building across the
Western CONUS, which will keep the Great Lakes region in a quasi-
northwest flow thru the weekend into early next week.
Unfortunately this also means weak lobes of vorticity can easily
dive southeast and bring a chance for showers and possibly a
thunderstorms. Presently operational solutions indicate dry
weather sticking around through Sat; however, the latest GFS does
suggest a weak vort trying to slide across the Northern Great
Lakes Sat and could bring a brief chance for showers. But have
presently discounted this scenario and maintained a dry forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 736 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

LLWS tonight. MVFR cigs reaching PLN Wednesday afternoon.

High pressure over far southern Ontario will move east, allowing a
weak cold front to cross northern MI Wednesday night.
Shower/thunderstorm activity will increase ahead of the front,
with a few showers poking in late tonight, and a better chance on
Wednesday. Lower cigs will arrive in the vicinity of the front,
the PLN the 1st to see MVFR cigs later on Wednesday.

S to sw winds, somewhat gusty on Wednesday. LLWS tonight, with
strong s to sw winds just off the surface.


Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Light winds this morning will give way to increasing southerly
flow later today and particularly a cold front
presses into the region from the west. Small craft advisory
winds/waves are likely to develop tonight...particularly on Lake
Michigan and Whitefish Bay and continue into Wednesday.
Winds/waves will gradually diminish through the day Wednesday and
Wednesday night.


LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-


MARINE...BA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.