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000
FXUS63 KAPX 082351
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
751 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA
TODAY WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT AND PULL A TRAILING
WEAK DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE CONTINUED SMALL CHANCES FOR ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS.
THEN...TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME GOOD SUNSHINE AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

...COOLER TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...

IMPACTS: NONE.

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...997 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. APX AND SURROUNDING RADARS SHOWED JUST A FEW SHOWERS
SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS
REVOLVE AROUND POPS...SKY COVER AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT JUST CLEARED OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES OVER THE LAST HOUR WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST.
MEANWHILE...THE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO DIG ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. A COUPLE OF WEAK BUT MOISTURE
STARVED DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME TONIGHT. THE COVERAGE LOOKS MINIMAL THOUGH
SO WILL JUST GO AHEAD AND WORD THE FORECAST AS ISOLATED SHOWERS
BECAUSE ANY ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANY TIME AND SHOULD BE
LIGHT/NOT CONTAIN MUCH ACTUAL RAINFALL. TOUGH CALL ON CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPS TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VAST AND MOSTLY IN
TACT CLOUD SHIELD STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF ONTARIO BUT
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WILL BANK ON CLOUDS HANGING
IN FOR THE MOST PART WHICH WOULD TEMPER TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
OFF TO MUCH. STILL EXPECTING LOWS IN THE CHILLY MIDDLE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER THAN
NORMAL AIR FOR NEXT WEEK.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH SHARP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US INTO ALASKA. SHORTWAVES OF
SIGNIFICANCE OVER MONTANA AND IOWA. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
QUEBEC WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH MICHIGAN AND INTO
MO/KS.

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA DROPS INTO TROUGH
HOLDING IT OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TROUGH THEN
SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST WHILE RIDGING AXIS OVERHEAD BY FRIDAY BUT IT ALSO
CONTINUES EAST. SHORTWAVE/JET ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA THEN
DEVELOPS TROUGHING ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY.

NEAR TERM (WEDNESDAY): TROUGH AXIS DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH REGION
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND PASSAGE OF
MID LEVEL FRONT WILL BRING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS. BEST CHANCES LOOK
EARLY ON WITH DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...IF CLOUDS DECREASE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AREAS...THEN COULD GET SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE
SO EXPECT MAINLY SHOWERS.

MID RANGE (WEDS NIGHT THRU FRIDAY):  HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE
SURFACE WITH RIDGING ALOFT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SKIES CLEAR OUT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH MOVES IN OVERHEAD. CONCERN IS THAT TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT IN DECOUPLED ATMOS. WILL DROP TEMPS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
BASED ON DECOUPLING AND COLD START TO THE EVENING...SAME FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LATE ARRIVAL OF SURFACE FRONT.

REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY): SURFACE
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS THROUGH CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION AS WELL...SO
UNSETTLED AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL HOLD OVER ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU THE
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN PERSISTENT/DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY
AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THRU THE DAY. W/NW WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR A MAJORITY OF ZONES.
LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS HIGHER PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347>349.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...AS