Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 180527
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
127 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...CONTINUING DRY AND RATHER
COMFORTABLE MID-AUGUST CONDITIONS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...ANOTHER NIGHT OF VARIABLE CLOUDS AND FOG POTENTIAL...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL...PATCHY REDUCED VISIBILITIES
IN FOG TONIGHT ESPECIALLY EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: 1022MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON SATURDAY HAS
STALLED ALONG THE MICHIGAN/INDIANA/OHIO BORDER WITH A SMALL FRONTAL
WAVE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.  BETTER ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT WAS MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
AXIS OF DRIER AIR WAS SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER TODAY STARTING TO
BREAK UP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR IN
NORTHWEST LOWER...BUT CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE TIP
OF THE MITT AND NORTHEAST LOWER.

SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE EAST TONIGHT TOWARD WESTERN
QUEBEC WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVING IN ALOFT.  INCREASING
WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO WISCONSIN WILL INCREASE THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT ON THE OTHER SIDE OF LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL
FOG TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS FROM CLOUD COVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND LIMITED MIXING LIKELY TO HAVE A IMPACT ON
OVERNIGHT SKY CONDITION.  WHILE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SUSPECT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH ONSET OF COOLING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  MEANWHILE...SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AT MID AFTERNOON...AND AS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING THIS SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY
FOR CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES TO BE BREACHED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO 40S-LOWER 50S.  SO THE THREAT FOR FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THERE ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOW...PERHAPS SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO
CENTER ON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP
SPINNING ITS WHEELS OVER MONTANA. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO AND STALL OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LEADING TO RATHER
UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING TO SAY THE LEAST.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE MONTANA SYSTEM IS SHOWN TO FINALLY
MAKE SOME PROGRESS TOWARD THE REGION BEFORE STALLING OUT. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEPENING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF POPS A LITTLE TO LINE UP WITH FASTER
GUIDANCE (ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE MONDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST MONDAY NIGHT). LITTLE INSTABILITY IN
EVIDENCE SO WILL ONLY INCLUDE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (NO THUNDER).
HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. LOWS IN THE MILDER MIDDLE 50S TO
AROUND 60.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAIN SHOWERS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS (AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND
1.75 INCHES). THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY
THE LACK OF SURFACE HEATING DUE TO DEEP CLOUD COVER. STILL ONLY
EXPECT A VERY SLOW EXIT TO THE EAST OF THIS SOLUTION SO WILL LINGER
POPS INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY FOR SURE
WITH WARM AIR ALOFT BUT WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES TO GO ALONG WITH
PERIODIC SHOWERS. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMMED TEMPERATURES BY A DEGREE
OR TWO WHICH WILL MAKE FOR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE READINGS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S DURING THE DAY AND THE MUGGY MIDDLE
50S TO LOWER 60S AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...AS UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE ON THE RISE DUE TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING.
ALL BETS ARE OFF NEXT WEEKEND UNFORTUNATELY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY. SO WILL HAVE TO GO WITH MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN
SATURDAY AND FRONTAL DRIVEN SUNDAY. FAIRLY WARM WITH HIGHS OF WELL
INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MILD UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

EXPECT LOW STRATUS...FOG AND THUS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING ACROSS FAR NRN AND NE LWR MICHIGAN
(PLN AND APN) THANKS TO RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING TRAPPED
BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS...BUT MAINLY
VFR CIGS...WILL PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF NW LWR MICHIGAN (TVC AND MBL)
DRIVEN BY OUR NEXT SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE NRN PLAINS. EXPECT MOST PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z.
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME EASTERLY BELOW 10
KTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...THOUGH BACKGROUND LARGE SCALE
FLOW WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO
MIDWEEK.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JPB





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