262
FXUS63 KAPX 070622
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
222 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clearing trend with seasonable temperatures today.

- Cool tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s.

- Dry trend carries into Tuesday before next rain chances return
  Tuesday evening through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Cold frontal boundary and embedded weak surface low pressure
currently exiting to the south and east into the lower Great Lakes,
leading to cooler air building into the region from northwest to
southeast. In the wake of the front, broad surface high pressure
intrudes from the northwest, which will lead to a decrease in
lingering low level moisture (and thus, clouds) across the region as
mixing commences through the day today. Anticipating all of northern
Michigan will be partly to mostly sunny by the afternoon. Not as
warm or humid today... quite seasonable temperatures, perhaps a
touch below normal. Highs generally range from 70-75 across the
eastern Yoop and 75-80 across much of northern lower... with the
lone exception being some lower 70s across northwest lower as
onshore NNW flow (sustained 5-10mph, some 15mph+ gusts)
materializes. With surface high pressure passing through tonight,
expecting a very cool night to give those air conditioners a break
tonight... as lows tumble into the mid-to-upper 40s (notorious cool
spots) to the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Departing high pressure contributes another dry day to the region
before myriad smaller rain chances build into the region amid a
quicker zonal flow. Quick moving shortwave will pass through later
Tuesday, with surface reflection drawing a warm front back northward
Tuesday evening. The wave looks to slow considerably as it passes
through the upper Great Lakes, with northward progression of the
warm front likely failing to advance much past I-96 downstate. As
such, anticipating our window for rain to be rather limited at this
juncture, with just some minor shower and thunder chances Tuesday
night and into Wednesday (better chance probably Wednesday as we
would have more favorable instability). Troughing departs to close
out the work week, before another area of troughing builds into the
region this upcoming weekend. Uncertainty remains with the
progression and favorability of this particular troughing feature,
which, conceptually should only amount to another stretch of minor
rain chances... more updates to come as better data is had.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 139 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

MVFR to IFR cigs cover the area, with IFR south and MVFR north.
These clouds (and embedded DZ) will be stubborn to depart, but
should start to exit after sunrise. Once they finally erode, VFR
and quiet conditions prevail for Monday.

Light northerly winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JZ