Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 141713

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1213 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Issued at 1001 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Southwesterly boundary layer flow has aided pushing early morning
lake induced clouds/flurries from central Lake Michigan into the Tip
of the Mitt. Opted to remove PoPs from the forecast across that area
as any flurries were very limited due to an impressive slot of low
level dry air centered around 900 mb per APX`s 12z sounding. Slowed
decreasing cloud cover trends just a tick across portions of that
area as well...including northern Emmet, northwest Cheboygan and
into southern Mackinac County through the midday hours before any
lingering weak ascent and pockets of synoptic moisture associated
with the surface trough sliding through southern Ontario/northern
Michigan continues to shift east.

Still expecting as flow veers northwesterly this afternoon that a
few light snow showers off of Lake Superior will prevail for
sections of Chippewa County, although most recent hi-res guidance
has waned on the overall coverage of that as well. Will go ahead and
keep low end PoPs in the fcst for the afternoon-early evening
downwind of Lake Superior. Otherwise, not too bad of a day shaping
up across the remainder of the CWA with thinning cloud cover and
temperatures climbing into the middle and even upper 20s in spots
for highs.


.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

...Nuisance light snow showers in spots...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Split flow pattern remains across the western
CONUS with a cutoff low sliding down into the Baja Peninsula, a feature
that will pay us a visit early next week with possible freezing rain
issues. Flow recombines over the eastern CONUS with broad ridging
through the SE states and troughing through the Great Lakes into
New England. Broad beefy area of high pressure (1044 MB) is over
the Great Lakes this morning, but with a weak-ish surface-upper
level trough moving through Canada. Modest isentropic ascent with
this feature is pushing a batch of lower-mid level cloud cover
through the Great Lakes and producing a fair amount elevated radar
returns on regional radar plots with very little reaching the
ground. Radar returns get a little stronger across the straits
with some hints of modest lake enhancement and probably a little
light snow showers ongoing up that way.

Primary Forecast Concerns...minor lake effect snows.

Weak isentropic ascent will slide east of the region this morning
with little fanfare, followed by cloud cover gradually thinning
through the afternoon hours. However, still have to account for
minor lake effect possibilities today and even through tonight.
Southwesterly boundary layer flow this morning/weak ascent and a
smattering of synoptic moisture will no doubt result in some lake
effect snow showers along the Lake Michigan shoreline up across
the straits and into eastern upper Michigan. Have increased PoPs
just a bit and added minor accumulations for the above mentioned
areas. Boundary layer flow veers back northwesterly again tonight
tapping a longer fetch across Lake Superior and likely pushing
some lake snows back into eastern upper Michigan. Again, have
nudged up PoPs and added minor accumulations for that area.

For everyone else, not a bad day overall with thinning cloud cover
and temperatures "warming" into the lower to middle 20s. Another
cold night with temps in the single digits to the the teens.


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Sunday night)
Issued at 323 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

...Quiet weather through the weekend into early next week...

The pattern over the next week will continue to feature a slow
retreat of the arctic air Sunday with warming aloft for much if not
all of next week. Meanwhile, low pressure moving up from the south
early in the week is unfortunately expected to lead to freezing rain
issues from late Monday into early Tuesday as well as possibly a
little snow on the front end and rain during the day on Tuesday.
The main forecast concerns revolve around how fast it will warm up
over the next few days as well as the details of the system early
next week.

Sunday into Sunday night...High pressure in control with continued
slow warming aloft will continue to decrease over lake instability.
In addition, drier air will lead to increasing sunshine with only a
slight hint of a very shallow low level inversion remaining. Highs
in the upper 20s to around30. Lows in the teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...Freezing rain potential Monday
night into Tuesday.

Extended models remain in fairly good agreement that low pressure
tracks by just to our west across Lake Michigan eventually drawing
up much milder air northward into northern Michigan. Model
soundings show precipitation starting out as a little snow or
mixed rain and snow Monday afternoon. Surface temperatures still
look cold enough for freezing rain Monday night into early Tuesday
as warmer air aloft increases while surface temperatures slowly
inch toward freezing. Right now it generally looks like around a
tenth of an inch of ice accumulation (while the higher terrain may
see upwards of a couple tenths of an inch). Precipitation is then
expected to become all rain by later Tuesday morning as surface
temperatures continue to warm into the middle 30s to the lower 40s
by afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...Extended models are not in the greatest
agreement. Generally speaking, a nearly zonal flow aloft for
Wednesday and Thursday is expected to result in precipitation free
and unseasonably mild conditions. Meanwhile, with have low chance
pops for Friday from another possible area of low pressure tracking
by to our west. This is per the GFS while the ECMWF remains dry so
there is plenty of uncertainty on that one. High temperatures of
well into the 30s to the middle 40s. Lows only in the upper 20s to
middle 30s (which is actually a few degrees above normal daytime
highs for the second half of January).


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

Primarily VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the
forecast period as surface high pressure dominates northern
Michigan`s sensible weather through the remainder of the weekend.
Lake Superior induced clouds may scrape PLN this evening as winds
veer northwesterly, perhaps resulting in a period of high end MVFR.
Winds continue to remain on the light side...sustained at or below 10
kts through the day Sunday.


Issued at 323 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2017

A slight increase in westerly winds today push winds/waves into
small craft advisory criteria on Whitefish Bay through early
evening. Otherwise, winds and waves will remain below headline
criteria through tonight. Winds start to increase later Sunday and
Sunday night with marine headlines possible.


LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 9 PM EST this evening for LSZ321.


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