Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 190314
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1014 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

The clouds are slowly closing the hole that was opened up during
the afternoon, but the westward extent of the clouds has been
slowly moving eastward to the Lake Michigan shore of NW Lower. The
moisture is moving up from the south and with the strong
inversion, will be trapped in the boundary layer.

Temperatures aren`t expected to go anywhere tonight as well with
this southerly flow, so will expect that the temperatures will
slowly fall to around freezing and probably flatline once they get
there.

UPDATE Issued at 626 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Messed with the sky forecast, and have things cloudier for the
evening as the hole that opened up in the afternoon, closes up and
fog begins to form for the night. Depending on the trends later
tonight, a fog advisory may not be out of the question. However,
another SPS about the slippery roads for later tonight and tomorrow
will come out as the the back roads that still have snow and ice
on the freeze up, again.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

...Messy driving conditions again for the morning commute...

High Impact Weather Potential...No weather but ice covered roads
will continue to be a problem overnight into Thursday morning.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Surface high is centered over the Ohio
Valley. The high will move into the Mid-Atlantic states Thursday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Warmer and semi-moist air moving over
the northern MI snowpack continues to generate fog and low clouds
trapped under 1kft inversion. Current sat pix show back edge of
clouds just west of Lake Michigan. A few breaks over MI but solid
for the most part.

Main roads continue to improve during the day...but will refreeze at
night. That and more fog Thursday morning could cause some problems
for the morning commute.

Thursday morning fog to start the day with larger breaks in the
clouds. High just about overhead with rising upper level heights.
Big question for tomorrow is whether moisture trapped below
inversion thru the day. High temps (around 40F) reflect some
sunshine...could be higher if we clear out totally. Forecasted high
temps are 5 to 10 degrees below record for the day tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday and Saturday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

...Above normal daytime temperatures continue...

High Impact Weather Potential...Watching the potential for another
brief period of scattered freezing rain showers across far
southwestern areas early Friday morning.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Focus to end the work week into the first half of
the weekend will revolve around a weak upper-level cutoff low,
currently over the Rockies, that is expected to eject toward the
central plains tonight into Thursday. Ridging ahead of the upper-
level low and associated surface reflection will keep the area
precipitation-free through at least early Thursday night; however,
scattered rain shower chances increase Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Main forecast concerns/challenges revolve
around rain chances Friday-Friday night (potentially a bit of
freezing rain early Friday morning?) and any additional fog
potential this week as temps/dew points continue to remain above
normal.

Generally quiet weather is expected to prevail for Thursday night as
ridging aloft only begins to break down very late Thursday night
into Friday with the approach of weak low pressure from the
southwest.  Wouldn`t be shocked to see areas of fog/low clouds
become trapped under a lowering subsidence inversion once again
Thursday night as daytime temperatures leading to snow melt allows
for increased low-level moisture. However, there is little in the
way of guidance consistency with respect to the boundary layer
conditions, so confidence is diminished somewhat.

Our next system begins to approach the area very late Thursday night
into the day Friday as low pressure tracks through the central
plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. As mentioned by the prior
shift, guidance continues to really struggle with the overall
evolution of this anomalously warm pattern...ultimately resulting in
less confidence than desired. While it looks like most of the precip
will fall during the daylight hours Friday as rain, there is at
least a small concern that the leading edge of scattered shower
activity works its way into far southwestern areas prior to sunrise
(with 25-31 deg F temps) as another period of freezing rain. If that
solution were to occur, it certainly doesn`t look like a long period
of frozen precip as daytime temps warm to the a couple degrees on
either side of 40.

Another round of scattered rain showers is possible on Saturday,
although at this point, the expectation is for much of the day to
remain precip-free with temperatures warming in the low 40s again -
some 20 degrees above normal for the third week of January.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Well above normal temperatures will continue through the extended
period. Pattern remains nebulous, with a few systems in or near the
region through the week. Lots of uncertainty right now, so will
leave the consensus, generally low chance PoPs through early in the
week, as we look to remain on the northern fringes of systems as
they pass to our south. Better chances for rain, and perhaps a
wintry mix, will come with a mid-week system. Looks like we could
see the return of some colder air later in the week behind this
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 626 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Main issue this evening, is the hole in the cloud cover closing up
and producing low CIGS. It looks like it is beginning over N Lower
MBL, TVC, and PLN which had all briefly cleared, have clouded back
over with IFR category CIGs, which are expected to continue. The
only uncertainty is the fog product on the satellite image showing
some erosion on the western periphery of the cloud deck over N
Lake Michigan. Although the last few frames are showing a some of
the moisture filing back in. Otherwise, will expect that over the
next hour or so, they clear skies over APN will fill back in.
Models are adamant that the moisture moves east and the sky clears
Thursday morning. That may happen, but not before the fog moves
back in as the moisture in the boundary layer remains over the
snow pack, and with temperatures falling below freezing again
tonight.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Small Craft Advisories continue through around midnight. Gusty
southwest winds continue through the evening. High pressure moves
in for Thursday...so expect light southerly winds and morning fog
along the nearshores. The light wind continues into Friday.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Thursday for LHZ345-346.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...KJF
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...KJF


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