Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 261748
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
148 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1111 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Areas of fog and reduced visibility will continue to impact much
of eastern upper Michigan, as well as coastal areas of far nrn
lower Michigan, further into this afternoon. Some areas haven`t
even seen a dent made into dense fog/quarter mile visibility,
such as Mackinac Island, which has been submersed in poor
visibility for roughly 17 straight hours! Conditions are expected
to improve some through afternoon, but those closest to the Great
Lakes will see the worst of conditions. The warmer and more moist
air traveling in gusty southeast to east wind flow has been very
efficiently cooled down to form this fog. Ah spring!

Elsewhere, clouds have thinned out enough for temperatures to
warm into the 60s most areas, well on the way toward another warm
day in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Showers have also been able to
fire off ahead of an incoming shortwave that crosses SW lower
Michigan, and in conjunction with a swath of slightly steeper mid
level lapse rates. These will bring some light QPF to those areas
around Saginaw Bay over the next couple of hours.

Heading into the afternoon, eyes are focused across western
portions of the CWA. There is decent agreement on the next wave
to lift into this region (so difficult to discern on satellite),
and fire off additional showers which are expected to cross the
region into early evening. MLCAPES expected in the 500-700 J/kg or
so. Rumbles of thunder are a decent bet, but severe weather is
certainly not expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...Low stratus/fog continues downwind
of Lake Huron. Increasing shower/thunderstorm chances today and
tonight.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Elongated area of low pressure extends
from Eastern Iowa thru Missouri into the Southern Plains early this
morning. Vast majority of precip associated with this system remains
NW of this line...with the only precip impacting our area attm
limited to Eastern Upper Michigan along the far NE edge of deeper
moisture. Rest of our CWA remains mostly cloudy at this hour...with
plenty of low stratus/fog still streaming off of Lake Huron and into
portions of Eastern Upper and far NE Lower Michigan under the
direction of SE low level flow. Temps remain relatively mild at this
hour...ranging from the 40s downstream of Lake Huron to the Lower
60s along the Lake Michigan shoreline thanks in part to downslope
flow.

Low pressure will continue to lift NE thru Wisconsin today and into
Eastern Upper Michigan and Eastern Lake Superior tonight. This
trajectory will keep our CWA along the eastern edge of deep moisture
and lift associated with this system. Some weak instability will
develop across our CWA this afternoon and tonight ahead of this
system...with MUCAPES holding below 1000 J/kg thru the entire
period. Some speed and directional shear will be available to
organize convection. However...moisture will be lacking a bit...with
surface dwpts only in the 50s throughout the day. Certainly expect
some embedded thunder today...but expect any storms that do develop
to remain below severe limits. POPs will very slowly increase from
west to east across our CWA today and tonight as the deeper moisture
edges closer...with highest POPs in the west of course.

Should be another mild day today...with afternoon highs ranging from
the Upper 50s in Eastern Upper Michigan as low stratus/fog continue
to stream into this area thru much of today...to the low to mid 70s
across much of Northern Lower Michigan away from Lake Huron. Low
temps tonight will range from the upper 40s in Eastern Upper
Michigan to the 50s across all of Northern Lower Michigan.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

...More rain showers expected...

Low pressure finally moves across the region and drags a cold front
across the area by afternoon. This will likely lead to more showers
and perhaps thunderstorms. Instability isn`t over impressive with ML
Capes of only a few hundred J/KG across eastern zones early in the
afternoon just ahead of the front. Rainfall amounts should be on the
order of a tenth to a quarter of an inch with locally up to half an
inch possible. Much cooler air behind the front for Thursday night
into Friday. Another disturbance moving up from the south looks like
it will skirt the southern half of the forecast area with a chance
for showers Friday night. Models continue to struggle with this
system so confidence of any rain is on the low side.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

...Continued unsettled with cooler temperatures...

Chilly pattern overall with another slow moving low pressure system
likely bringing showers to the region for much of the period. The
only day that looks rain free at this point is Saturday as high
pressure temporarily moves over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Morning fog and stratus affecting portions of northeast Lower
Michigan including APN have since diminished across land, but
continue to affect locations just offshore. With an east-southeast
wind, there`s a chance that this could briefly waffle back on
shore at various times this afternoon. Otherwise, a band of
showers is currently moving onshore from Lake Michigan, which is
expected to progress eastward over the next 3-4 hours. Affected
early this afternoon will be MBL/TVC/PLN...with APN not seeing the
threat for light rain showers until late afternoon/early evening.

Additional showers and a few rumbles of thunder are possible
across all TAF sites over tonight into Thursday morning along
with increasing LLWS.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

SCA conditions will continue for all of our nearshore areas today
and into this evening as S/SE winds continue to gust to 15 to 25
kts. Winds will diminish tonight...but will likely strengthen again
to SCA criteria on Thursday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms
will increase from west to east across our nearshore areas today and
tonight as low pressure lifts thru Wisconsin and into Eastern Lake
Superior. Low stratus and fog will continue to impact our Lake Huron
nearshore areas through much of today.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MJG
MARINE...MLR


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