Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 240818
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
318 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...NOTHING CHANGES REGARDING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN
WITH RIDGING WEST AND TROUGHING EAST. STRONG AND DEEPENING SFC LOW
PRESSURE WAS SEEN DIVING SE FROM NRN ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF A 120KT UPPER JET. DEEP
LAYER WAA WAS MOVING IN OVERHEAD WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM OUR 00Z APX DRY SOUNDING SHOWING 0.09"
PWAT....ALTHOUGH WE DO SEE 0.25" UPSTREAM ACROSS NRN MN AND MOVING
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/WI...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES NOW
SPREADING ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. TWO BULLS-EYES OF FORCING WERE
SEEN...ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA CENTERED TO OUR WEST NEAR
MSP...AND ANOTHER ASSOCIATED MORE DYNAMICALLY WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO. THESE TWO WERE STILL DETACHED FROM EACH
OTHER...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER -DIVQ. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...THERE IS NOT SO MUCH PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAA IN THE DRIER AIR...BUT FURTHER NORTH...AND IN THE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER -DIVQ/BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION...THERE WERE SOME LIGHT
SNOWS BREAKING OUT. ALSO OF DEFINITE NOTE...STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW
(65KT LLJ MOVING INTO WI/UPPER MICHIGAN) IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS ALREADY SWEEPING INTO THE REGION. FINALLY...ALL ICE IS SEEN
ACROSS NRN LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE MANITOU ISLANDS NORTH...AND ICE
BREAK OFF FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR RACING EASTWARD TOWARD AREAS
SOUTH OF THERE (STORY ON APX WEBPAGE). THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT IS
DRAPED WEST OF THE SFC LOW...ACROSS MANITOBA.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS ARRIVES ROUGHLY AROUND 12Z...WHILE THE
TWO POCKETS OF LIFT AIDING THE DEEP LAYER -DIVQ MERGE THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHILE LEFT FRONT QUAD UPPER DIVERGENCE AIDS LIFT. WINDS
ARE STILL GUSTY THROUGH MORNING...30-35 MPH (HIGHER LAKE MI
COAST)...WHILE MOISTURE INCREASES TO A 0.20" TO 0.25" PWAT. THIS
BEST MOISTURE JOINS THE BEST FORCING WHICH IS 11-17Z. THIS OCCURS
WHILE THE DGZ IS GETTING POUNDED SOUTH OF TVC. ICE COVER/FETCH
LIMITING THE OVERALL LAKE ENHANCEMENT...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
OPEN AREAS THROUGH BREAKING UP OF THE ICE DUE TO STRONG WINDS.
INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE ONLY UP THROUGH 900MB OR SO...AND SOME OF THE
FORCING MAY BE LOST TO SATURATING THE ATMOSPHERE...DUE TO THE DRY
INITIAL DRY CONDITIONS. CAN FORESEE LIGHT SNOWS BREAKING OUT SOON
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...THEN SPREADING SOUTH INTO NW LOWER MAINLY
AFTER SCHOOL BUS TIME...BUT THE MORNING COMMUTE AFTER SCHOOL WILL
LIKELY GET HIT BY THE INCREASINGLY POORER CONDITIONS. STRONG WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE PRODUCING BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW HOWEVER...PRIOR TO
THE SNOWS. SNOWS WILL MOST LIKELY BE GREATEST ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF TVC WITH MORE OPEN WATER AND FORCING MAXIMIZED IN THE DGZ.
THERE WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON...MORE SO EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER IN THE BETTER
REMNANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE. ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SPILL
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITH LAKE SUPERIOR FROZEN
OVER...LITTLE SNOW UP THERE WITH INCREASINGLY SMALLER FLAKE SIZES.
BETTER TOTALS MAYBE TVC SOUTH IN NW FLOW AND SOME OPEN WATER AND
ESPECIALLY FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS EVENING...WITH A SECONDARY VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ARRIVING...AND THE DGZ POSSIBLY GETTING HIT WITH THE BETTER
LIFT. AN INCREASINGLY DRIER NEAR SFC LAYER DOESN`T BODE WELL
HOWEVER. AN INTERESTING TO THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT
SECONDARY WAVE THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BE A SURPRISE ADDITIONAL
NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1-2" OF SNOW. RIGHT NOW...THIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NRN LOWER...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS IT DOESN`T QUITE FIT
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. CERTAINLY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

OVERALL...CURRENT SNOWFALL MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH TODAY...DUE TO ICE
COVER AND LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS. MORE OF A WSW FLOW...AFFECTING LESS
OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS WELL. HOWEVER...AN AVERAGE OF 2-3" SEEMS OK UP
THERE...MAINLY CONSIDERING THE LATER START TO THE SNOW UP THERE
(THROUGH DAYBREAK TOTAL)...AND LOW PWATS.

ACROSS NRN LOWER...SIMILAR STORY WITH THE LATER START TO THE SNOW
LIMITING THE THROUGH DAYBREAK TOTALS...WHICH SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THE
NAM HAS A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE STORY...BRINGING IN SIMILAR TOTALS
ACROSS FAR NW...AND MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS TVC SOUTH...WHERE 3-4"
LOOKS DECENT. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NE LOWER....AWAY
FROM LAKES...AROUND AN INCH.

TONIGHT...MINIMAL AMOUNTS ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...WITH MAYBE A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH OFFSETTING LESS MOISTURE ACROSS TVC/SOUTH. OF COURSE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FRONTOGENESIS.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE 10-20F RANGE FOR MOST...LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

...BRUTALLY COLD AIR TO START...
...MORE TOLERABLE...BUT PERHAPS MORE ACTIVE...TO END...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NEXT ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND POTENTIAL
WIND CHILL CONCERNS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST HINTS OF
A DECENT SNOW EVENT TO START MARCH.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: SPRAWLING POLAR ORIGINATED
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE REGION THE MID
AND END PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK AS ACTIVE CLIPPER WAVE TRAIN IS LOST.
ARCTIC COLD AIR DRAINAGE REMAINS UNABATED (FOR NOW)...ONCE AGAIN
SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PATTERN
LOOKS TO GO THROUGH SOME CHANGES HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
MARCH...WITH TROUGH DEEPENING FOCUSED MUCH FURTHER WEST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY...
WITH BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. ABOVE...COUPLED WITH RETREATING SURFACE
HIGH...SHOULD AT LEAST ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH SOMETHING
WITHIN THE REALM OF NORMAL. UNFORTUNATELY...ARCTIC GYRE AND NORTHERN
STREAM INFLUENCES LOOK CLOSE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE KINDA WARMING
MOST PEOPLE ARE PROBABLY LOOKING FORWARD TO RIGHT ABOUT NOW. ABOVE
SCENARIO DOES AT LEAST SET UP THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE ACTIVE AND
MOIST WEATHER PATTERN FOR US...ESPECIALLY AS GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH EJECTING WAVES FROM UPSTREAM TROUGHING.
HOWEVER...SAID NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES WILL STRONGLY DICTATE JUST
HOW FAR NORTH BETTER PRECIP POTENTIAL CAN MAKE IT. WITH THAT
SAID...NOW MULTI-MONTH TRENDS DEFINITELY SUPPORT RATHER AGGRESSIVE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES...WITH A PROPENSITY OF THESE TO OUTPACE
THEIR SOUTHERN STREAM PARTNERS...LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY STREAM
INTERACTION AND A RESULTANT WEAKER AND SOUTH DISPLACED STORM
OUTCOME. PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIODS. ADDRESSING START OF MARCH SNOW CHANCES.

DETAILS: JUST PLAIN COLD (GO FIGURE) WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS NORTH
FLOW CONTINUES ON FRONT SIDE OF PLAINS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
AIRMASS DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS COLD AS ITS PREDECESSORS...BUT GOING
TO BE VERY COLD NONE-THE-LESS WITH THERMAL PROGS ONCE AGAIN
SUPPORTING HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS SETS THE STAGE ONCE AGAIN FOR AN EXTRAORDINARY COLD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WIDESPREAD TEENS BELOW ZERO LOOK LIKE A SURE BET ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS. THOUGHT ABOUT GOING COLDER GIVEN RECENT HISTORY...
BUT WITH PROGGED 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS (RIGHT ON
THE CUSP FOR FULL DECOUPLING) AND SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER
ISSUES...THOUGHT BETTER OF IT FOR NOW. REALLY DOESN`T MATTER...AS
ANY LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL CONSIDERABLY COLDER. OVERNIGHT
LOWS THURSDAY JUST A COUPLE DEGREES LESS EXTREME...BUT STILL SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR MOST. THAT...THOUGH...SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT IT
FOR THE EXTREME COLD...AT LEAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. GOOD
RIDDANCE...AT LEAST FOR NOW.

FAR LESS IMPACTFUL WEATHER MIDWEEK CENTERS ON LINGERING LIGHT LAKE
SNOWS IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW AREAS. AIRMASS WILL BE AN
EXCEEDINGLY DRY ONE...AND WITH LOW INVERSIONS...A NON-EXISTENT
DGZ...AND WHAT SHOULD BE REJUVENATING ICE COVER...WOULD EXPECT WHAT
DOES FALL TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE (ALTHOUGH TALCUM-POWDER LIKE
SNOW WILL BE EFFECTIVE AT LOCALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES).

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

TEMPERATURES STEP UP THE RECOVERY PROCESS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS (GET THIS) REACHING BACK INTO THE 20S
SATURDAY RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NOW...BEFORE GETTING TOO
EXCITED...NORMAL HIGHS BY THEN RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THIS "WARMING" MAY COME AT A
PRICE...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LITTLE DOUBT THE START OF
THE LONG RANGE WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. CONFIDENCE TAKES A BEATING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE START
OF NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH SOME HINTS DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
ENOUGH STREAM INTERACTION WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO BRING LOW
PRESSURE UP THOUGH THE LOWER LAKES...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SNOW
TO MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. 12Z ECMWF EASILY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS SCENARIO...BRINGING A RATHER LONG DURATION
LIGHT/MODERATE SNOW EVENT STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT...LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. JUST NOT BUYING THIS AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO
JUST YET AS PROXIMITY OF NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCES/SIMPLE NOW
LONG STANDING HISTORY/AND A HEALTHY SNOW PACK DOWN THROUGH THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY ALL SUGGEST THE VERY GOOD POSSIBILITY OF A MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH/LESS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IMPACTFUL EVENT (SEE GEM AND
PLENTY OF ENSEMBLES). CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH WILL BE UTILIZED
FOR NOW...AT LEAST MENTIONING SOME SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. NOT READY AT ALL HOWEVER TO INCLUDE A SPECIFIC MENTION IN
OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS. STILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK
OUT ALL THE DETAILS AND LET WHAT WILL BE CHANGING GUIDANCE PROGS
SETTLE DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

-SN/BLSN WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. -SN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
TOWARD MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING...RESULTING IN BLSN
AS WELL FOR TUE MORNING. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TUE
MORNING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON
AS SNOW BECOMES LESS WIDESPREAD.

S TO SW WINDS TONIGHT...VEERING W TO NW TUE AFTERNOON. LLWS
TONIGHT...WITH STRONG SW WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ008-
     015.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ016-
     017-019>022-025>027-031>033.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JAZ


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