000
FXUS63 KDLH 300947
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
347 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

VERY EARLY THIS MORNING LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA. COLD
FRONT WAS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...FROM ABOUT KBDE
THROUGH KDTL. THE FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PASS OVER MOST OF THE MN AREA THIS
MORNING AND THEN ACROSS WI THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WERE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD OVERNIGHT BUT MOST ARE ENDED. DID KEEP
SOME SHOWERS GOING IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE MOISTURE IS
DEEPER AND WHERE BEST LIFT WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE IS.
ELSEWHERE...BUFR SOUNDS INDICATE ATMOSPHERIC DRYING BEHIND THE
FRONT...SO THERE WILL BE SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURE ARE STARTING OUT
QUITE WARM TODAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...SO EVEN WITH WITH COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...HITTING THE UPPER 20S/MID 30S SHOULDN/T BE A PROBLEM WITH
THE SUN/S HELP.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR OVERNIGHT...THEN ON SUNDAY
THE WEAK SFC HIGH WILL STILL BE OVER THE REGION WHILE LOW PRESSURE
TAKE SHAPE IN THE WEST. WITH ONSHORE WINDS FROM DULUTH AND ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PROVIDE SOME RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS. WITH 8H TEMPS FROM -7 TO -9C THE DELTA T WILL BE
MARGINAL...BUT SOME ADDED LIFT WITH THE TERRAIN MAY SQUEEZE OUT
SOME PRECIPITATION.



.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

THIS WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START
TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE REGION. HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON POPS GIVEN
THE LATEST TREND TO SLOW THINGS DOWN A BIT. WILL HANG ON TO THE
HIGHEST POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...AS EASTERLY WINDS BRING A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT/LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO THAT AREA. THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL INCREASE
A BIT ON MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES IN THE HIGH PLAINS. STRONG
WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE MID RANGE
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. THE CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL LIKELY DECREASE A BIT ON TUESDAY...BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
REAL TOUGH TIME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WEEKS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE GFS IS A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER AND
HAVE TRENDED OUR FORECAST IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF/GEM/UK WITH LOW
PRESSURE REACHING WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WITH SUCH
DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF QPF...HAVING A HARD TIME PUTTING CONFIDENCE
IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT...BUT DUE TO THE PROLONGED NATURE
OF THE SNOW THIS WEEK...BELIEVE SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND
REACH NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ONLY
VERY SMALL POPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AND ONLY
SPOTTY. TEMPS WILL COOL CONSIDERABLY LATER IN THE WEEK WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM FRI NOV 29 2013

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION BEING AT
HIB/INL WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z AS A
WEAK SFC LOW RIDES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  16  30  23 /  10  10  20  40
INL  27  10  25  18 /  10  10  10  40
BRD  33  15  29  22 /  10   0  20  50
HYR  34  16  30  21 /  10  10  10  30
ASX  35  21  31  24 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF