Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 261232
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
632 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

REMOVED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AS IT
HAS ENDED. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

A SFC LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER IOWA AT 08Z WITH A TROF EXTENDING
NEWD INTO NW WI. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WAS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WITH
SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS PCPN WAS OCCURRING IN THE H7 FGEN
AXIS THAT WAS WELL ADVERTISED YESTERDAY. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD
END BY 16Z AS THE FGEN WEAKENS AND THERE ARE ICE CRYSTALS IN THE
CLOUDS. THE PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
NW WI AS A MID LEVEL TROF IS NEARBY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE IOWA SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN WI AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES INTO IOWA. THESE
FEATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A BIT DEEPER MOISTURE OVER NW WI TO
GENERATE SOME ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW. HIGHEST QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
BE OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE FA. THIS IS WHERE A H7 FGEN AXIS WILL
BE ALIGNED OVERNIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER NW WI.

ON SATURDAY...THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FA. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE REST OF THE FA. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NW WI AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN THE BASE OF THE TROF AND SOME
WEAKENING FGEN. ANOTHER INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN EDGE
OF NW WI. THE HIGH WILL COVER THE FA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A VERY WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER AND COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THIS COULD BRING A DUSTING OF
SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE COLD NW FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER COULD RESULT IN VERY LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IN NW WISCONSIN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A VERY STRONG CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FROM
WESTERN CANADA TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL DOMINATE
THE WEATHER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. THE NORTHLAND
CAN EXPECT A STRETCH OF COLD WEATHER AND LIGHT NW TO WNW WINDS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NW WISCONSIN...BUT ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE VERY MINIMAL DUE TO THE RELATIVELY COLD
AND DRY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER
THAN NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MIGHT MODERATE WEDNESDAY...BUT
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THERE WERE WIDESPREAD MVFR OVC CIGS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...AND POCKETS OF IFR CIGS. THE
LOCATIONS WITH IFR CIGS SHOULD SEE LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS
MORNING. THE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERING/CLEARING TO VFR AT KINL LATER
TONIGHT...BUT MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER. THE KHYR AREA WILL IFR
CIGS/VSBYS REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHEN A BAND OF SNOW MOVES INTO
NW WISCONSIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  16  21   8 /  10  10  10  20
INL  23   4  15  -3 /  10  10  10  30
BRD  28  15  20  10 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  32  22  25   8 /  40  60  40   0
ASX  32  23  25  12 /  30  60  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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