000
FXUS63 KDLH 230817
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
317 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

A QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS THE REGION IS UNDER THE
STABLE POST FRONTAL REGIME WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SFC T/TD SPREADS HAVE LOWERED ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVER SEN CWA AND NEAR KAIT. ADDITIONAL AREAL COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS CONSIDERING THE FCST SFC COND
PRESS DEFICITS. ALOFT A NW FLOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVERHEAD AS A MID
LVL RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKIES. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUD
COVER ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER NW FLOW ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD AND ERN WISC ZONES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

TODAY...SFC HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AS MID LVL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE. LIGHT SYNOPTIC WIND WILL
ALLOW MESOSCALE FORCING TO DOMINATE DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING SO WE
SHOULD SEE A LAKE BREEZE IN PLAY TODAY. THIS IS INDICATED WITHIN THE
HIGHER RES MDL OUTPUT...ESPECIALLY THE 3KM DLH WRF. XSECTS DERIVED
FROM BUFKIT SUGGEST A LAYER OF SCT CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE 5K
TO 7K FT LAYER...POSSIBLY BROKEN AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
ERN PARTS OF THE CWA INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY BASED ON LOWER 925 TEMPS AND LOWER
MIXING LAYER DEPTH.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO ERN EDGE OF THE CWA BY EARLY
MORNING. MAX RAD COOLING POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR OVER ERN WISC ZONES
AND ARROWHEAD WHERE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

TOMORROW...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALTHOUGH MID LVL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED OVER THE NRN PLAINS...MDLS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
TREK EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN/IA BY THE LATE AFTN. A LLJ WILL
DEVELOP FROM ERN NEB INTO SWRN MN UNDERNEATH A MID LVL CAP.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY AFTN
AND SHIFTING TOWARDS SWRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...A FEW STORMS MAY WANDER
INTO THE BRD LAKES REGION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGING. STABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM INCREASES
MUCAPE VALUES TO 1000J/KG BY 12Z FRIDAY TOWARD THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION...BUT THE ECMWF ONLY HAS AROUND 400 J/KG. STABILITY WILL DROP
FURTHER FRIDAY AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
SIXTIES. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE RATHER WEAK AS
WELL. WE WILL CARRY JUST LOW POPS FOR NOW.

THE FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO A STRONGER UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE
FROM SOUTHERN SK FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY 12Z
SUNDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...THEN IT SHOULD DRY OUT BY MONDAY.

EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES FRIDAY TO WARM A FEW
DEGREES SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL THEN DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID SEVENTIES
SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  50  76  58 /   0   0   0  30
INL  76  45  78  57 /   0   0   0  30
BRD  79  55  79  63 /   0  10  20  40
HYR  77  45  79  59 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  74  46  77  56 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING/MELDE