650
FXUS63 KDLH 260544
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1244 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorms tonight through Thursday. Highest
  rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are forecast south of a line
  from Brainerd, MN to Moose Lake to Mercer, WI.

- A couple opportunities for severe thunderstorms Saturday and
  Sunday.

- Hot and muggy weather is likely over the weekend. Heat
  Advisories may be needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Light to moderate rain will continue over much of the Northland
tonight. Rain will advance northeastward and gradually taper
off tonight. The highest rain totals this afternoon through
tonight of 1 to 3 inches will be generally east of a line from
near Hinckley to Ashland. A warm front will surge northward.
Precipitation rates and instability will gradually increase
tonight over Sawyer and Price counties and a few thunderstorms
are possible. There is a 15 to 25 percent chance of minor
flooding tonight and early Thursday morning east of a line from
Siren to Ashland.

Another shortwave trough will lift northeastward into the
region for Thursday setting the stage for another round of
showers and storms. The greatest risk of rain and storms will be
focused south of a line from Brainerd, MN to Duluth to Hurley,
WI. A few storms are not out of the question during the
afternoon and evening hours. The heaviest rainfall will be east
of a line from Hayward to Hurley, WI where a 15 to 25 percent
risk of minor flooding exists Thursday.

Previous discussion for Friday through early next week below...

Quick break on Friday, then storms and heat over the weekend:

We should finally get a cold front to kick out the low pressure
Thursday night, which will lead to a dry and quiet Friday with
pretty seasonable temperatures.

Going into Saturday, deep and broad ridging over the southern
states will start to move northeast with some southwesterly
flow. With this, we`ll get plenty of warm air advection, causing
temperatures to soar into the 80s. We`re looking at a Saturday
and Sunday with wet bulb globe temps rising to close to 80 and a
moderate Heat Risk for some places. Heat Advisories may be
needed.

Along with the heat comes the potential for some strong to
severe thunderstorms. First, on Saturday, we may have an upper-
level short wave passing through with some low-end favorable 0-6
km 30-45 kt shear and MUCAPE up to or a bit over 1000 J/kg in
the early afternoon, quickly rising potentially to the 3000+
J/kg range into the early evening. It remains to be seen how
well all ingredients will arrange themselves. While instability
may increase into the evening, shear may decrease, keeping storm
mode and hazards in question. Some storms could persist into
Saturday night, then going into Sunday, with more diurnal
heating and potential for another shortwave with a cold front,
we could have yet another round of storms develop in the
afternoon/evening. Right now this looks like a high CAPE / low
shear setup, but only marginally low shear. So again, plenty of
uncertainty for hazards and coverage, but ingredients are
looking to be in place for at least some severe storms.

Next week:

After Sunday`s fun with the heat and storms, it`s looking like
we`ll find ourselves in a west/northwest flow pattern with
ridging re-developing out to the west. There could be some
embedded shortwaves that could bring the occasional shower/storm
chance, but generally it`s looking like temperatures will
settle to slightly above average with largely quiet weather for
a few days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A break from precipitation for the most part until mid-morning,
but expect low clouds to be on the increase from south to north
along with some MVFR fog. At BRD/HYR, expect ongoing MVFR
conditions to persist with ceilings falling to IFR at times
through the period. More of a gradual decline in ceilings at
DLH/HIB as clouds slowly spread back north through the day along
with another round of light to moderate rain which will mainly
affect HYR and clipping BRD/DLH starting around mid-morning.
Expect some breezy conditions with east to northeast winds
gusting to 15-20 kt at times through the period. Around 40-50%
probabilities for more MVFR visibilities redeveloping after rain
passes Thursday evening as fog redevelops, especially at
DLH/HYR with some moisture enhancement from Lake Superior.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 417 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Persistent northeast winds over western Lake Superior today and
Thursday will result in gradually building wave heights in the
southwest arm of the lake. Waves of 3 to 5 feet are forecast
from late Thursday morning into Thursday evening. Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed. Light rain will persist over
the waters and could lead to the development of fog tonight.
Rain and a few thunderstorms are possible along the South Shore
and the North Shore from Silver Bay to Duluth Thursday.
Northeast winds will gradually weaken Thursday night and Friday.
A few storms are possible again Saturday and Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Huyck/JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...Huyck