Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 061121
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
621 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL GROW
STEADILY COLDER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGING MORE SNOW ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH SOME SUBTLE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. EXPECT THIS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH A RELATIVE PEAK IN LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION. ACROSS
WESTERN NY A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND
IN MOST AREAS WITH PLENTY OF SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION.

A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SNOW WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE A LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON MAINLY OFF LAKE ONTARIO. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
REMAIN AROUND 7K FEET THROUGH 18Z. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ALIGN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 12Z-18Z...DIRECTING MOST OF THE SNOW INTO
JEFFERSON COUNTY. THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
SSEO...NCAR 3KM WRF ENSEMBLE...AND CANADIAN GEM ALL SHOW A 3-6 HOUR
WINDOW FOR LIMITED LAKE SNOW ACROSS THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION FROM
12Z-18Z. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES IN THIS AREA...WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY NORTH OF WATERTOWN. BY THIS AFTERNOON
INVERSION HEIGHTS QUICKLY LOWER TO BELOW 5K FEET WITH LAKE EFFECT
DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A FEW
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE...BUT VERY MEAGER INSTABILITY
SHOULD PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL END ALTOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WARM.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS
AND MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN NY TO THE FINGER
LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 30S ON THE HILLS. CENTRAL NY
SHOULD ECLIPSE 40.

ANY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL END
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT WITH ONGOING WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE RETREATS TO NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND
LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG
HILL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY... A SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER. LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THERE SHOULD BE MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE. THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY
MAKE SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AS
NORTHEAST/EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE FALLS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...ALONG WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR SOME WEAKLY FORCED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY NIGHT... THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN AN
ENCROACHING STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN
THE MIDDLE WE WILL SEE SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC KEEPING A DRY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY DRY... WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 ACROSS WESTERN NY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER (IN THE MID 20S) CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE
NORTH COUNTRY.

BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE STALLED ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND TRACKING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE
MAIN IMPACT OF THIS COASTAL STORM ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE TO KEEP THE
BEST UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL REMAIN BACK IN THE COOLER AIRMASS WITH
DISORGANIZED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA AS MOISTURE / FORCING
REMAINS LIMITED. FOR MONDAY...BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE ACROSS
WESTERN NY (WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY) DUE TO THE PROXIMITY TO THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INITIALLY...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE... WITH A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION... BUT PARTIAL
THICKNESSES SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW DESPITE MARGINAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY LATER MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WHEN PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL
SNOW DUE TO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES... VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION RATES
TO LIMIT DYNAMICAL COOLING AND SOLAR INSOLATION EVEN THROUGH THE
CLOUDS. MONDAY NIGHT... LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...
WITH THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FROM A COATING TO AN INCH IN
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND LAKE PLAINS TO ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. DETAILS BECOME MORE
MURKY TUESDAY AS SNOWFALL WILL DEPEND ON TRACKS OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
PIVOTING AROUND THE STALLED MEAN TROUGH AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE
COASTAL LOW. HAVE CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE POPS... WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S
DURING THE DAY AND 20S AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK INCREASING LIKELY THAT TWO MAIN PUSHES OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EXTENDED WITH
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF LONG-
LASTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAINLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL STORM AND
MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
THE FIRST SURGE OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES. BACK TRAJECTORIES ON THIS
AIRMASS... WHICH GLOBAL MODELS ARE GROWING INCREASING CONFIDENT ON
ITS TIMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOW IT ORIGINATES FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. THE GFS/EC/GEM AND
THEIR ENSEMBLES SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20C ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NY. THIS WILL PROMOTE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
WILL PROMOTE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES LIKELY
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
GFS/EC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD BRINGING THIS COLDER PUSH
OF ARCTIC AIR... WHICH MODEL BACK TRAJECTORIES SHOW ORIGINATES NEAR
SIBERIA AND EVOLVES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS VIA CROSS-POLAR FLOW IN
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. SHOULD 00Z GFS/EC CONSENSUS FORECAST
850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -30C MATERIALIZED BY SATURDAY... THIS
AIRMASS WOULD LIKELY CHALLENGE DAILY RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO AND LOWS BELOW ZERO.
WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE IN
THIS COLD AIRMASS... THE DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE GIVEN THIS EVENT
IS STILL A WEEK AWAY. HOWEVER... THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT BELOW TO
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
FEBRUARY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS MAINLY EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES MAY BRING
MVFR CIGS NEAR KBUF THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
AREAS OF MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BRING SPOTTY IFR THIS MORNING INCLUDING KART. THIS SNOW WILL WEAKEN
TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VSBY RETURNING
TO MAINLY VFR. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
LINGER.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL WITH CLOUDS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLIES ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ONE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK


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