Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 260344
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. A MORE POTENT
SYSTEM WILL POTENTIALLY BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH
AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH ONLY
A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS A FLURRIES
FARTHER INLAND TOWARDS THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR. INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA ADVANCING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH CLEARING TO BRING SUBZERO READINGS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS WESTERN/CNTRL NEW YORK. WHILE THIS WILL
SERVE TO BRING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ACROSS PA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NONETHELESS...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE...HAVE LEFT A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE TIME
BEING. ONCE AGAIN...TEMPERATURE SWINGS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
POSITIVELY-TILTED 500MB TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COMPACT SURFACE LOW RACES OFF THE EAST COAST.
LINGERING SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG
WITH NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. WEAK
SYNOPTIC LIFT WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT VORT MAX OR LOW LEVEL JET AND IN
THE PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 5KFT WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS LIMITED TO ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH FOCUSES MAINLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTY WITH READING HOLDING NEAR ZERO SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO
LAKE CLOUDS. WHILE APPARENT TEMPS WILL PUSH TOWARD THE NEGATIVE
TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WINDS AROUND 5 KTS PREVENT MUCH OF
A WIND CHILL IMPACT.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
CENTERING JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE BACKING WINDS
TO WESTERLY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT. A LOWERING
CAPPING INVERSION FROM AROUND 5KFT DOWN TO 3KFT SHOULD KEEP THE
SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LIMITED TO 1-3 INCHES. IF A MORE ORGANIZED
SINGLE BAND WERE TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THEN A LOW END LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ABOVE FREEZING AND LOWS IN MANY SPOTS
FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT. THIS PERSISTENT COLD WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY CLOSE OUT FEBRUARY 2015 AS ONE OF IF NOT THE COLDEST MONTH
IN THE RECORDED HISTORY OF OUR CLIMATE SITES WHICH COVERS 144 YEARS
IN BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AND 65 YEARS IN WATERTOWN. MORE DETAILS IN
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE OLD IDIOM GOES...MARCH IS LOOKING TO COME IN LIKE A LION WITH
A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY WILL BRING A MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NEW YORK. THIS MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING A LIKELY PROBABILITY OF
SNOW TO WESTERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LIKELY SNOW PROBABILITIES
SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE AND EMBEDDED
VIGOROUS VORT MAX CROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
LATENT HEATING OF THE SNOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ONLY SLIPPING A FEW
DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY FOR SNOW
TOTALS...GFS/ECMWF MODEL QPF SHOW AROUND A HALF INCH OF LIQUID.
DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES.

A PACIFIC BASED SURFACE HIGH AND SHALLOW 500MB RIDGE LOOKS TO SHIFT
ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS
AND CROSSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
LATER TUESDAY WITH THE STRENGTH OF A PRESSING ARCTIC HIGH NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES IMPACTING EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THE NORTHERN EDGE
GETS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THIS HIGH AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE
LIMITED TO NEAR THE NY/PA STATE LINE WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW
MUCH OF A ARCTIC HIGH AT ALL THEREFORE ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SURGE
NORTH ACROSS ALL OF NEW YORK INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS EVEN SHOWS A
BIT OF A WARM NOSE WORKING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIER THAT COULD BRING
A CHANCE A MIXED WINTRY PRECIP. EITHER WAY 12Z RUNS ARE COLDER THAN
THE 00Z RUNS SO SNOW HAS BEEN CONSERVED AS THE FORECAST WEATHER
TYPE. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOKS EDGE CLOSER TOWARD NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LES THAT AFFECTED AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLIER THIS EVENING
HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED...WITH THE REMNANTS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MVFR CIGS
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE LAKE WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THESE
MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK INTO VFR RANGE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE
MID/HIGH CLOUD WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM WILL LARGELY PASS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING PERHAPS A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TIER BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL EVENTUALLY VEER NORTHEASTERLY BY EARLY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL FRESHEN TO AROUND 15KTS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE LAKES BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AREA SETTLES OVER THE LAKES BY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
CLIMATE...THOMAS






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