Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 211449
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1049 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THEN YESTERDAY DESPITE SOME CLOUD COVER.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TONIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY REACHING
WESTERN NEW YORK BY DAYBREAK. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY SPREADING THESE RAIN SHOWERS
EASTWARD...WITH COOLER AIR FOLLOWING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ARCHED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST COASTLINE...WHILE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH.

A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR ALOFT...WITH THE 12Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING SUGGESTING HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE LAKES WHERE LAKE
BREEZES WILL MAINTAIN SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS YESTERDAY...INCLUDING
THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND THE THOUSAND ISLANDS AREA. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY STREAM ACROSS
THE REGION...WHICH WILL FILTER SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE LAKES WHERE A COOL AND STABLE
BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP...THOUGH INLAND SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GENTLY BREEZE. A FEW SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM...ALONG
WITH LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH A BIT EARLIER ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY CLOSER TO LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY TOWARDS DAYBREAK TOWARDS FAR WNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. A
GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE
BETTER COVERAGE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. FRONTAL MOVEMENT
LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THE LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO A HALF INCH
OR LESS. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK WITH ANY THUNDER THREAT
VERY LOW.

THE MAIN SLUG OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PULL STEADILY OFF TO
THE EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DIMINISHING TREND TO THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AS ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PIVOTS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH PASSAGE OF MAIN MID LEVEL
WAVE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL RESULT IN A RENEWED THREAT OF SHOWERS
AREA-WIDE WILL TARGET FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR BETTER COVERAGE TUESDAY NIGHT. CRITICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
WOULD SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY OF A MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
LOCATIONS TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CONTINUED LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION EAST OF THE REGION WILL
USHER IN DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THEREFORE TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COLDER SIDE
OF THE TYPICAL MID APRIL SPECTRUM DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS BARELY REACHING 50. THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA PRECIPITATION FREE. DIURNALLY ENHANCED DAYTIME
CU/STRATO CU ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE IN LIGHT OF THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL BUILD A RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ALL 20/12Z MODEL PACKAGES ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT THE GREAT LAKES RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST
COAST ON FRIDAY BEING REPLACED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TROUGHINESS
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATE WEEK RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING BACK
UP TO NEAR LATE APRIL NORMALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE WESTERN TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTERS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IN A
SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT WE WILL SEE ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS. A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW WILL
HELP BOOST TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LEADING BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP MID OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE 40S ACROSS
WESTERN NY BUT THE WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL NOT QUITE REACH THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE LOWS WILL STILL DIP INTO THE 30S.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
BUT A LITTLE COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY A NOW SLOWER MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF
COOL AIR WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER NEXT WEEKEND. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP REINFORCING COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
MAY DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND HILLTOPS WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF TONIGHT WITH
CLOUDS CONFINED TO THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
TODAY...MAY OCCASIONALLY TOP 10 KNOTS...THEN WEAKEN SOME THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHILE SLIGHTLY BACKING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE.
WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WITH MVFR
EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON THE LAKES TODAY WITH WINDS GENTLE AND
WAVES MINIMAL. AS INLAND AREAS WARM WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKES TUESDAY
AND BEHIND THIS FEATURE WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH WAVES. SCA
MAY BE NEEDED ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS





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