Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 231450
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1050 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING
FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...SEEN IN WV IMAGERY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AT 14Z...WILL SPARK A FEW MORE SHOWERS
OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS FOUND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS DISCUSSION...BUT AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON...THE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN TIER WHILE ENDING
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY.

OTHERWISE...A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIFT AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL
KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE...WITH ANY BREAKS OF SUN SIMPLY
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS WHICH WILL LEAD TO FURTHER CLOUD
COVER. H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT SEASONABLE TEMPS
THOUGH WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY FORECAST TO REACH THE MID
70S.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE ON
OUR WEATHER MAP WILL NOW BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY STILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING EARLY TONIGHT OTHERWISE CLOUD COVER WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN ALLOW AREAS OF FOG
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
TO START THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND COOLING AT NIGHT
EXPECT FOG TO FORM BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS. FOG WILL BE LIKELY NOT ONLY IN THE
TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND A SATURATED LOW LEVEL
COULD BRING PATCHES OF FOG.

ON TUESDAY A POTENT SHORTWAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CREST THE BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY TO NEAR JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY. DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REACHING OUR AREA WITH LIKELY JUST A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN CLOUDS TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A WIND FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT TO LIMIT THE EXTENT OF FOG...WITH POSSIBLY JUST THE SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN SEEING FOG.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
FROM OUR REGION SUNDAY MORNING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FEATURE A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BOOST 850 HPA TEMPERATURES UPWARDS TO 17-18C BY TUESDAY.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WILL RISES INTO THE LOWER
80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND CLOSE THE PERIOD IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND ALLOW FOR A MORE ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AS THERE
WILL BE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AS
AN EXPECTED TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY BE NEAR THE EAST COASTLINE AND
LIKELY SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM AIRMASSES.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE NEAR NORMAL...AND
NOT AS WARM AS THE PRECEDING DAYS AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER 850 HPA TEMPERATURES BRING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL
KEEP IFR TO MVFR CIGS IN PLACE INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...BUT ENOUGH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MIXING WILL ERODE THIS CLOUD COVER AND PROMOTE A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL BE RAIN FREE THIS AFTERNOON...A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FINGER LAKES
REGION AND SOUTHERN TIER. THERE MAY EVEN BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IN THESE AREAS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF
FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE
LAKES WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN END OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN/RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...LEVAN/RSH
MARINE...LEVAN/RSH







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