Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 241510
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND NEAR RECORD MILD TEMPERATURES
TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...WITH STRONG WINDS AND A RETURN TO
COLDER TEMPERATURES THEN FOLLOWING FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 10 AM...THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO RECEDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND EVEN A
FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE FOUND FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION...WHICH IS NOW SITUATED WITHIN THE BURGEONING WARM SECTOR OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...EXPECT THE STEADIER SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW LEVEL JET/SLUG OF WARM
ADVECTIVE FORCING SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY...
UNSEASONABLY MILD...AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. WHILE A FEW ADDITIONAL SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE OVERALL BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...THESE SHOULD BE WORTH NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME LOWER-END CHANCE POPS WITH THE BULK OF THE TIME EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE SHOULD AT LEAST CHALLENGE RECORD HIGHS. THE
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN MANY AREAS...THOUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE A BIT
COOLER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THERE.
THE WARMEST READINGS OF ALL WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL BOOST FROM DOWNSLOPE FLOW
EFFECTS SHOULD PUSH READINGS TO AROUND 60F. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
ARE 59 AT BUFFALO (1964)...58 AT ROCHESTER (1982) AND 55 AT
WATERTOWN 55 (1964)...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD AT LEAST BE CLOSELY
APPROACHED IF NOT TIED OR BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT ONLY POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS NORTHEAST
OF THE LAKES...BUT MAY EVEN PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING ACROSS LAKE HURON OVERNIGHT AND REACH WESTERN QUEBEC BY
CHRISTMAS MORNING. THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS REMAIN ON THE FASTER
SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE WHILE THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST. THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT A LITTLE
SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN...BUT PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS
SLOW OR AS INTENSE AS THE NAM. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS
LOW WILL ENTER WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...THEN SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSE TO THE DEFINITION OF
BOMBOGENESIS...WITH 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS APPROACHING 24 MB. A
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
A SIMILAR TRACK AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF STRONG ASCENT WITHIN THE
DPVA REGION ON ITS EASTERN FLANK.

RAINFALL...
WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL ADVANCE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AHEAD OF THE
UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
RISE TO OVER AN INCH. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION COMBINED WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAIN
FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS A SHARP DRY SLOT CROSSES THE REGION. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY DAYBREAK CHRISTMAS
MORNING AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ARRIVES.

SEVERE POTENTIAL...
THERE IS GROWING CONCERN FOR A LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WHICH MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AS A NARROW WINDOW OF FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. IF A CONVECTIVE LINE DOES IN FACT
DEVELOP...THE INTENSE WIND FIELDS EXISTING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BRING THE RISK FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO POTENTIALLY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS...WHICH COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE SWATH OF
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE.

WIND POTENTIAL...
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO DOWN THE MIDDLE OF OUR
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT NORTHEAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. A LOOK AT THE CIPS ANALOG PAGE FROM SAINT
LOUIS UNIVERSITY PULLS UP SEVERAL NOTABLE HIGH WIND EVENTS FROM THE
PAST...INCLUDING AN EVENT FROM JANUARY OF 2008 AND DECEMBER OF 2008
WHICH BOTH PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN SEVERE
WEATHER NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING AN INTRUSION OF STRATOSPHERIC AIR WITH THE DYNAMIC
TROPOPAUSE FOLDING DOWN TO AROUND 500 MB WITHIN THE MID LEVEL DRY
SLOT...INDICATING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR DEEP MIXING. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CHANNEL OF
STRONGEST WINDS MOVING OVER LAKE ERIE AND CROSSING THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...LAKE ONTARIO...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

LIKEWISE...THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE 1.5 PV SFC WILL LOWER TO AS
LOW AS 850 MB...BUT THE CORE WILL STAY JUST TO THE WEST ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GENERAL LOBE OF THIS FOLD WILL
CROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z CHRISTMAS EVE
THOUGH...MAKING THIS THE TIME OF HIGHEST RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

THE NAM REMAINS STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...WITH JUST OVER 70 KNOTS A FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
DECK WHILE GFS WINDS ARE IN THE 55-60 KNOT RANGE AT THAT LEVEL...
BUT EVEN THE WEAKER GFS/ECMWF WIND FIELDS ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SCHEMES ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF WARNING CRITERIA GUSTS.

GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...ANALOG SUPPORT...AND PATTERN
RECOGNITION...A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE LAKE
ERIE SHORE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER AND
ALSO IN JEFFERSON COUNTY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. GUSTS UP TO 65
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND 60 MPH NORTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE FILLED IN WITH A WIND
ADVISORY WHERE GUSTS OF 50-55 MPH ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR FASTER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST...STARTING
IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

OTHERWISE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO CROSS THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
REMAIN QUITE MILD...SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
TO MIX IN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH NO ACCUMULATION. ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN THERE THERE MAY BE A COATING
TO AN INCH OF SLUSH FROM MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT ANY REMAINING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL END AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS STRIPPED AWAY. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT EXIT. FRIDAY WILL THEN BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME SUNSHINE...
AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS AS 850 MB
TEMPS RECOVER TO AROUND +2C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SATURDAY A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT IS QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AGAIN...SO ANY PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE
RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY NIGHT MODERATE COLD ADVECTION MAY
SUPPORT SOME VERY LIMITED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF
BOTH LAKES.

SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE PATTERN...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING WIDE SWINGS
IN RANGES OF POSSIBILITY FROM RUN TO RUN. THE GFS IS MOST BENIGN...
WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY WITH A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND WEAK LAKE EFFECT. THE ECMWF BRINGS A SLOWER
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON MONDAY...WHICH IS A FULL DAY LATER THAN ITS SOLUTION FROM
YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST GO WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND
CONSISTENCY IS SEEN. IT DOES APPEAR TO TURN COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR...OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE
BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 15Z...THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO RECEDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOUND FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WHICH IS NOW SITUATED WITHIN
THE BURGEONING WARM SECTOR OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...EXPECT THE STEADIER SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW
LEVEL JET/SLUG OF WARM ADVECTIVE FORCING SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA...
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN FOLLOWING FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. FOR THE MOST PART CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR...
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF LINGERING MVFR/IFR WITHIN THE SHOWERS AND ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING BETWEEN 03-06Z
WITH BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50
KNOTS. REMOVED LLWS FROM THE TAFS AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
ARRIVE RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITHOUT ANY LAG TIME AT THE
SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS/POSSIBLE MVFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODEST SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY AS A SIGNIFICANT LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND LIFT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARD JAMES BAY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT PLOWING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY GALES
THEN FOLLOWING ON BOTH LAKES LATER TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION HELPS TO MIX STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE
SURFACE.

WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER
CHRISTMAS DAY AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS ACROSS QUEBEC
AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES RELAXING BELOW
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE
GALES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
     THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ007.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ004>006-
     008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY
         FOR LOZ042-062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM
         EST THURSDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH/TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH






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