Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 281453
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1053 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE PERIODICALLY BRINGING THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY ALONG WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...RATHER BROAD/DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
NONETHELESS...AS THIS LOW PUSHES EASTWARD IT WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG
WITH SOME WEAK TO MODEST LIFT ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY.

FOR OUR REGION...ALL OF THIS WILL MAINFEST ITSELF IN THE FORM OF
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG
WITH THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...WHICH WILL LIE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE LOW AND WHERE
MOISTURE AND AVAILABLE FORCING WILL BE GREATEST...AND STILL APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS...PROGRESSIVELY DRIER
AIR WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHARPLY DECREASING TO SLIGHT
CHANCE AND LOWER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY...AND TO NOTHING
AT ALL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INCREASING CLOUDS/
PRECIP AND COOL NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS
CONFINED TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WITH COOLER READINGS THAN THESE AGAIN FOUND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THE MUCH
SUNNIER CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS SMALL
PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO RIPPLE BY ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER AND A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS WILL SERVE TO CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LINGERING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL YIELD A SLIGHTLY
WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN WESTERN NEW
YORK TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LATEST 00Z MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH QUICKLY SHIFTING A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED VORT MAX WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NORTHERN PA WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON
FRIDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT
A LIKELY PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS EXTENDING NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE NORTH COUNTY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH. EVEN IF A FEW RADAR RETURNS DO SHOW UP
NORTH OF A BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER LINE... DRY AIR IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WOULD MOSTLY ONLY ALLOW SPRINKLES ALONG THE NY THRUWAY
WITH THE BEST QPF ALONG THE PA STATE LINE.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVING
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE MORE SHOWERS BECOME
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FROM THIS SECOND
SYSTEM LOOKS TO REACH INTO THE NORTH COUNTY THIS TIME WITH A
GRADIENT RANGING FROM LOW CHANCE POPS AT WATERTOWN RISING TO LIKELY
POPS IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE L/M 50S
WITH A CHANCE AT 60 IN THE NORTH COUNTY WHERE CLEARER SKIES WILL BE
FOUND. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES SATURDAY WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH TO
60 OR BETTER FOR MOST EVERYONE EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
SHORES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL WITH U30S TO
L40S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE OHIO VALLEY MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
ITS AXIS TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE RESULT WILL BE SEVERAL
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL VALUES RIGHT
INTO MONDAY. GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF QUESTIONS IN TERMS OF
INTENSITY/COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH.

00Z GUIDANCE BUILDS A BROAD AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEADS TO MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS MID TO LATE WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES PIVOT
AROUND THE TROUGH IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
THEN LOOK TO WARM BACK TOWARDS NORMAL MID WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO ONLY SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT WITH NO THREAT FOR
FROST/FREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...RATHER BROAD/DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
AS THIS LOW PUSHES EASTWARD...IT WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH SOME
WEAK TO MODEST LIFT ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. FOR OUR REGION...ALL
OF THIS WILL MAINFEST ITSELF IN THE FORM OF INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SHOWERS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THESE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. IN TERMS OF
FLIGHT CONDITIONS...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TONIGHT...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR RANGE ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AS MOISTURE DEEPENS SOMEWHAT. THIS
WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/POSSIBLE MVFR
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
RETREAT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKES. RESULTING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN
UP TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...GENERATING WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. WAVE WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA
AGAIN ON FRIDAY...REPEATING THE PROCESS WITH SIMILAR RESULTS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/WOOD
NEAR TERM...JJR/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...CHURCH/SMITH
AVIATION...JJR/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD


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