Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 281914
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
314 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SURGE SHOT OF VERY WARM
AIR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ALTHOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AIR TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGER LOWER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANY
LINGER MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BUT UNDER 15
KNOTS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE LAKES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL ONSHORE BREEZES DEVELOPING.

A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA



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