599
FXUS61 KBUF 010714
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
314 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in with fair and dry weather returning
tonight through at least Friday morning. Meanwhile, temperatures
will remain solidly above normal for the foreseeable future.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
There`s a potential for widely scattered showers east of Lake
Ontario (20% chance) with the passage of a weak secondary frontal
boundary overnight. Otherwise, lots of low level moisture and a
light flow aloft will maintain quite a bit of cloud cover across the
region tonight. There also will be patchy fog both with the low
moisture, and perhaps a bit more dense fog in any areas which clear
out and have radiational fog develop. Lows will be in the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

Clearing Wednesday morning...as a progressive mid level
shortwave ridge and associated weak sfc high will cross our
forecast area. The fair dry weather on Wednesday will be
accompanied by max temps that will range from the mid 60s across
the Eastern Lake Ontario region to the low and mid 70s over the
western counties.

A compact shortwave will pass by to our north Wednesday night. This
will drive a moisture starved cold front through our region. While
there will be slgt to low chc pops near and east of Lake Ontario...
the passage will be marked by nothing more than patchy clouds and
subtle wind shift to mark the occasion.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging developing over the central Great Lakes
Thursday will amplify over the eastern CONUS on Friday. This
will allow dry weather through most of Friday afternoon before
an area of showers approaches from the west. Northwest flow
Thursday keeping lake areas cooler in the lower to mid 60s,
perhaps even a few degrees cooler along the immediate Lake
Ontario shoreline. The warmest readings Thursday will be inland
with readings reaching into the lower 70s.

Warm advection develops Friday as the flow turns southerly with
the upper ridge parked over the area and a surface high centers
off the Mid Atlantic coast. There will be increasing mid and
upper cloud cover during the afternoon which may temper high
temperatures a bit, but most readings should get into the 70s
with some lower 80s for normally warmer interior sections of the
Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes. Deepening moisture and
the slow approach of the cold front will start to gradually
bring in chances for showers starting late Friday across far
western New York. However, given the strong mid/upper ridge over
the eastern CONUS ahead of a low which is closing off and
lifting well northwest of the area into Minnesota and Canada,
feel that the cold front may be even slower to enter the region
than models suggest, which could delay precipitation chances
until Friday night. There is the potential for elevated rumbles
of thunder Friday night with nocturnal moisture transport and
low level jet forcing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A vertically stack low pressure system located over NW Ontario
Canada will slowly drag a cold through the eastern Great Lakes. Due
to the slow progression of this front, and then a potential
secondary front have kept low end PoPs across much the the forecast
area into Sunday. We should see a fairly widespread area of rain
Saturday move from west to east, which then gives way to chances for
showers into Sunday. Brief surface high pressure builds into the
Great Lakes Sunday night, causing any lingering showers to gradually
deplete from west to east.

Dry weather looks to persist through much of Monday but yet again
another warm frontal boundary will begin to approach from the
southwest. This will introduce a chance of shower either late Monday
night or during the day Tuesday. Still some timing issues to work
out but have once again added chance PoPs reflecting the front
nearing and entering the region.

Overall, temperatures will continue to remain above average through
the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some lingering IFR cigs east of Lake Ontario overnight, but
otherwise cigs have lifted or scattered across Western NY.
However, this clearing has allowed radiation fog to develop in the
Genesee Valley, impacting the ROC terminal. Low confidence in
handling this fog which may mix out some with the passage of the
weak frontal boundary, or it may not.

Otherwise, satellite imagery shows an another area of low
moisture and IFR cigs developing across southern Ontario
province and Lake Ontario. This will expand overnight, lowering
cigs and possibly resulting in some fog as well. Fog may be
with the large area of low moisture, or radiation fog.

On Wednesday...IFR to MVFR cigs in the morning will give way to VFR
weather regionwide.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.
Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible
thunderstorms.
Sunday...Morning showers otherwise mainly VFR weather.

&&

.MARINE...
A quiet week is expected on the lower Great Lakes as the pressure
gradients remains weak. Winds will generally remain 15 knots or
less.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH
NEAR TERM...Apffel/EAJ/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Apffel/EAJ/RSH
MARINE...Apffel/TMA