Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 241440
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1040 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL
THEN SHIFT EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM THE MIDWEST TOWARD NEW YORK STATE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A FINE
THOUGH SEASONABLY COOL LATE APRIL DAY ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. 850 MB TEMPS RUNNING IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE BY MID TO
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTHERN SHORELINES OF BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO WILL SEE READINGS CONFINED TO THE 40S GIVEN THE
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT THAT RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND THE MID-HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S ACROSS WNY BUT LESS CLOUD COVER AND LIGHTER
WINDS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HELP TEMPS COOL INTO THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WE SHOULD SEE A DRY START TO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER WE WILL LIKELY BE SEEING
SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW APPROACH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO CENTERS AS THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF THE LOW
WILL WELL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER A NORTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN MAINTAINING
A NORTHERN SURFACE CIRCULATION THAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT...LINGERING LONGEST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW TRACK WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS HIGHER THAN ELSEWHERE. NONETHELESS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO  RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
MOST AREAS. THERE IS A EVEN SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS TEMPERATURES
THERE WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOOK FOR A CLEARING/DRYING TREND TO START SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO NEW ENGLAND AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN
FROM THE MIDWEST. LINGERING COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BRING BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ABOVE-MENTIONED RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE
THE RESULT OF A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WHILE THIS
FEATURE WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL AN EXTENDED BOUT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS...THE RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE SHOULD KEEP WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DRY AT LEAST
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARDS AS THE BROAD LOW MEANDERS ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE ACCOMPANYING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE CONTINUE TO BE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT`S
PROGRESSION INTO OUR AREA...WITH THE GFS AS USUAL BEING THE FASTER
OF THE MEMBERS AND THE ECMWF/GEM ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH THE
FORECAST TILTING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SPEED. NEVERTHELESS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL
AND WET WEATHER DEVELOP BY TUESDAY EVENING AT THE LATEST AND THIS
WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE BULK OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS LOW
DRIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THEN
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP BUILD WAVES
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN LAKE SHORES ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE...
CONDITIONS MAY STILL APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COOL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP
INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE INLAND FROM THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SAME WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER GUSTS FOUND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
WHILE THE RH VALUES WILL MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA AREAWIDE...OUR WINDS
WILL BE BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY...
AND FUELS SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY MOIST AREAWIDE WITH A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN WITHIN THE PAST 48 HOURS. FINE
FUEL MOISTURES ARE RUNNING LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...BUT 1000 HOUR
FUELS ARE OVER 20 PERCENT. BASED ON ALL OF THIS...WE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO FULLY MEET ALL RED FLAG CRITERIA TODAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...JJR/SMITH







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