Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KBUF 230543
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
143 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY. ONLY A SHOWER OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR SITES EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

THE MAIN PROBLEM OVERNIGHT WILL BE DETERMINING WHERE AND WHEN LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIFTED BY
A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOW BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...ONE LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WITH
THESE GENERALLY BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE
ON OUR WEATHER MAP WILL NOW BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...ONE LAST SPOKE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE EXITING OUT OF NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY SUSTAIN JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LESSEN AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...AND LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
JUST EAST OF THE REGION...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL HELP RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN  MOST LOCATIONS
TO THE LOWERS 80S IN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN THE NICE STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO THE ECMWF PROJECTING MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS
A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SLOWER MOVING UPPER TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH FASTER LESS
AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THUS THE GFS SURFACE REFLECTION SHOWS A
STRONGER SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS LEFT BEHIND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY
FALLING BACK EVEN MORE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS A COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...AND A BIT COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEALTH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION... WITH SOME IFR STRATUS
OR FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS.

ON SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL THIN/BURN
OFF. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE BRIEFLY
IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...LEVAN/RSH
MARINE...LEVAN







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.