Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 040553
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
153 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND THEN ALONG
THE EAST COAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC HAS ITS SIGHTS SET ON NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS LED TO
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EAST TO THE ADIRONDACKS.
MEANWHILE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...SOME CIRRUS BLOW-OFF
FROM CONVECTION OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SHROUD THE SKIES THROUGH
THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. THE CIRRUS WILL DETER THE VALLEY FOG
FROM BECOMING THICK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...ALTHOUGH AS THE
CIRRUS THINS BY DAYBREAK...THAT FOG MAY BECOME BRIEFLY DENSE.

AFTER DAYBREAK...THE SOUTHERN TIER FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN QUEBEC.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
NEAR A CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT A
LITTLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER
WITH  TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S...BUT WELL BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

EXPECT SOME TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE CURRENTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  OVERHEAD
HOWEVER...A CONTINUED DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSE
ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION.

EVENTUALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MARK AN INITIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
HINTING A RETURN TO LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS...HARDLY FALL THOUGH.
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO FOCUS ON THIS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY THAT MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
BEFORE ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS FEATURED A LOW
MOVING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KBUF /EX THE 06Z GFS/. WILL IGNORE
THESE AS THEY SEEM UNREALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN.  NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS
IN LIGHT FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...WHILE MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE SRN TIER
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER 09Z. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WATERTOWN WILL HOVER BETWEEN 2 AND 3SM IN FOG UNTIL THE LEADING
EDGE OF A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES THROUGH AFTER ABOUT 08Z.

AS FOR THE UPCOMING DAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES...
ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL THEN BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION FOR THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FLAT CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOR SAILORS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/RSH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/RSH


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