Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 300633
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
133 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOWERS...IT WILL ALSO USHER NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL DROP THROUGH OUT THE DAY...WITH
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
FRIGID AIR WILL THEN SUPPORT DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES FOR
PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW FOR ALL OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...AND GENESEE VALLEY SOUTH TO
ALLEGANY COUNTY. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE WEATHER OFFICE
WITH KBUF RADAR SHOWING VERY LIGHT RETURNS NORTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE SHIFTING TOWARD WESTERN
NEW YORK. HIGHER DBZ RETURNS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
WITH THE LATEST RADAR SCANS WHICH SHOULD REFLECT MAINLY SNOW WITH
SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL MIXED IN SO HAVE HELD ONTO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THERE. NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW COLD
ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL LOWER THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE TO THE
SURFACE BY 12Z SO EXPECTING ANY LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THAT
TIME TO TURN BACK TO SNOW. ANOTHER RISK TO MENTION IS THAT ANY
SLUSH CURRENTLY LEFT ON ROADS...PARKING LOTS AND SIDEWALKS THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY FREEZE UP AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL.

THE BACK EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK HAS SHIFTED EAST TO CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW FILLING IN BEHIND
AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE VCNTY OF AN INCH
OR TWO...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS COMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ALSO EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

NOTABLY COLDER AIR WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING LOW ON FRIDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL
STEADILY DROP THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING READINGS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND BY SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT WITHIN THE DEEPENING COLD AIR WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE.
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. DESPITE THE COLD AIR...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW AROUND 5K FEET...AND THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF
UPSTREAM LAKE CONNECTION WILL PREVENT ANYTHING MORE ORGANIZED.
EXPECT SPOTTY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND AN INCH FROM MONROE
COUNTY INTO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FROM
UPSTREAM LAKE HURON MOISTURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE FROM THE THIN
SPOTS ON LAKE ERIE...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH JUST A
SPOTTY DUSTING.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW
ZERO FARTHER INLAND. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GET MUCH COLDER WITH
NO OFF-LAKE FLOW AND SOME POSSIBLE CLEARING LATE. EXPECTED LOWS OF
15 TO 20 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THERE WILL STILL BE A
BREEZE ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND THIS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF ADVISORY CRITERIA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH A LESSER CHANCE OF
ADVISORY WIND CHILLS ELSEWHERE. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND HAVING AGREEMENT THAT THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE WIND
CHILL FORECAST...HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY ANY LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD END BY MIDDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
CRESTS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. WARM ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. AFTER A COLD
START TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW 20S BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY...BUT STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIRMASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING A RE-ENFORCING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A QUICK BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH MAY ALSO PICK
UP SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LIMITED OPEN WATER ON
LAKE ERIE...AND ALSO FROM UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE LAKES. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS. ON SUNDAY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST...WITH LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH SOME VERY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. A FRESH BATCH OF
COLDER AIR WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS IN MOST AREAS WITH
SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY STILL ABOUNDS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND OF
KEEPING A WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO
MOVE OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...ALTHOUGH A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT AND STRONGER SURFACE LOW IS NOTED IN THE 12Z
ECMWF. THE CANADIAN GEM WHICH HAD BEEN HANGING ONTO THE SYSTEM OVER
THE PAST FEW RUNS HAS ABANDONED IT WITH THE 12Z RUN...TAKING A MUCH
WEAKER LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. A LOOK THROUGH THE INDIVIDUAL 12Z
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A MAJORITY SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL
GFS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL RUNS WITH A MUCH STRONGER AND
FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION. WITH THE ONGOING ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY AND
THE FACT THAT THE ENERGY WHICH WILL PRODUCE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
OVER ALASKA...THERE WILL PROBABLY STILL BE SOME FUTURE MODEL CHANGES
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK. EVEN THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW...AND COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE MAINTAINED MID RANGE CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF COLD
AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY POSSIBLY NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN MANY AREAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
MAY DROP BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS AND POSSIBLY COLDER THAN 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR.

OTHERWISE A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS STRONGER
SOLUTION VERIFIES IT WOULD BRIEFLY BRING A PUSH OF MILDER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE BY THURSDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY THURSDAY
AS FLOW APPEARS TO ALIGN BETTER AT THAT TIME THAN EARLIER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN NY THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NY
WITH VSBYS RANGING FROM 1-3SM. MEANWHILE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
LINGERING LOW CIGS AND SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE
IS ONGOING. COLDER AIR MOVING IN THIS MORNING SHOULD CHANGE ANY FZDZ
BACK TO SNOW BY 10-12Z.

AFTER DAYBREAK...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VSBYS TO LESS THAN 2
MILES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY....AREAS OF MVFR IN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT...WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ004>008-012-019-020-085.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010-011-013-014-021.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH/SMITH
MARINE...RSH








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