Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 190610
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
210 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT...THEN BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING A
CHILLY MORNING...FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL. THEN AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP
NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
ON THE LAKE. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT WITH THE 00Z BUF
SOUNDING SHOWING AN INVERSION DEVELOPING AT AROUND 900MB. CLOUDS
WILL SHIFT...HOWEVER...AS WINDS ALOFT VEER FROM NORTH TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TO MOVE ONTO
LAND OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE HRRR DEPICTS. THESE SUBTLETIES
MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY TRICKY.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
WILL LARGELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FROST IN AREAS THAT CLEAR AND THE COOLEST OF VALLEYS. IN THESE
LOCATIONS...EXPECT INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
30S...WITH LOWER 40S MORE COMMONPLACE ALONG THE LAKE SHORES...AND
WHERE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TIER...AND
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM KIAG AND KROC. FOR THE
LATTER...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WILL REDUCE CIGS TO BETWEEN 800 AND
2500 FT AT TIMES...BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SRN TIER. SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR BOTH KELZ AND KJHW.

AS WE PUSH PAST SUNRISE...FRIDAY WILL BE A PROBLEM FREE DAY FOR
AVIATORS AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ANY CLOUD COVER AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRESENT THE
RISK FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WILL MENTION THIS LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD FOR THE FAR WESTERN SITES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER CANADIAN WATERS OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS WILL PRODUCE WAVES THAT WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SFC WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE FOR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WINDS AND
WAVES REMAINING WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL FRESHEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
START TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...WITH THE HIGHEST
WAVES BEING CONCENTRATED IN CANADIAN WATERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/JM
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH







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