Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 221926
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
326 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY
EVENING.

TONIGHT...CLEARING SKIES...PLENTY OF DRY AIR...AND LIGHTENING
WINDS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUING TO LOOK LIKE THEY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID 30S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST OR A FREEZE IN
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES TONIGHT...FOR
WHICH FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS
OUTLINED BELOW.

A DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP MAXIMIZE LATE
MAY INSOLATION AND WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 6C...SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S...ALBEIT 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF
THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER AIR TEMPERATURES NORTHWARD
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT SUCH THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE A RISK FOR
ANY FROST FOR MOST AREAS. ONLY THE COLDEST VALLEYS OF THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER MAY HAVE PATCHES OF FROST.

SUNDAY WILL START COOL AND CLEAR...BUT SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS WARM FRONT WILL NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER FAR WNY SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
ALL AREAS WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. GREATEST QPF WILL BE NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A GENERAL HALF INCH OR MORE
OF RAIN MAY FALL WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. BASIN-WIDE ACROSS THE CWA
MOST AREAS WILL HAVE LIGHTER AMOUNTS GENERALLY A TENTH OR TWO.

IN ADDITION TO WARMTH BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY...WE WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO SEE AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. AIR TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S...COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL
BRING A TOUCH OF HUMIDITY. GREATER HUMIDITY COME WITHIN THE EXTENDED
TIME PERIOD THOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BERMUDA HIGH PARKED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL GUARANTEE THAT
THIS WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID PERIOD...AS A CONTINUAL FEED OF AIR
OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL
ALSO MEAN THAT OUR AIRMASS WILL INHERENTLY BE MORE UNSTABLE...
PARTICULARLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES THOUGH...CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO RELY LARGELY
ON LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OR OROGRAPHICS TO INITIATE.

THAT BEING SAID...HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE RAINFREE...
SO WILL ONLY USE 30-40 CHC POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S GIVING US A
TASTE OF STICKY SUMMER HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECT
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH BASED ABOVE 4K FEET
BECOMING CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS/ATTENDANT MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

AFTER THAT...LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND RELATIVELY MINIMAL WAVES ARE
THEN EXPECTED DURINF THE WEEKEND AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
DRIFTS FROM THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A POSITION JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ005>008-012-013-019>021-085.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ001>004-010-011-014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA



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