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000
FXUS61 KBUF 150609
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
209 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY FINISH PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG THE
FRONT CHANGING TO WET SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AND
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. SEVERAL BATCHES OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE CWA ARE NOW IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING TO OUR
NORTHEAST...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF ONE OF THESE HAVING JUST CLEARED
NIAGARA COUNTY...AND THE OTHER NOW LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
IN THEIR WAKE...RELATIVELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF STEADIER RAIN BEGINS
PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER ABOUT 08Z. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF TO THE REAR OF THE SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
...THOUGH THESE SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF ALL RAIN THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY WILL MAKE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION MORE WINTER-LIKE THAN THE
TASTE OF SUMMER WE JUST EXPERIENCED. A 24-HR TEMPERATURE DROP CLOSE
TO 40F WILL OCCUR. COUPLED WITH THE LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SNOW
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A WET 1-3 INCHES OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER...AS WELL AS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS...LARGE WET SNOWFLAKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AND COULD
ACCUMULATE A QUICK HALF INCH OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST ON
THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR WITH MORE
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE EXTREMES OF EARLY THIS WEEK...THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH QUITE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTER THIS...A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GGEM/ECMWF/GFS ARE
A BIT FASTER WITH A CLIPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO CROSS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GGEM IS A MOIST OUTLIER...BUT MOST
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE POPS.

AFTER THIS...A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHICH WILL
BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FREQUENT WEAK SYSTEMS WHICH MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AT THIS TIMEFRAME IS LOW...WITH FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AND
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. SEVERAL BATCHES OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE CWA ARE NOW IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING TO OUR
NORTHEAST...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF ONE OF THESE HAVING JUST CLEARED
NIAGARA COUNTY...AND THE OTHER NOW LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
IN THEIR WAKE...RELATIVELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF STEADIER RAIN BEGINS
PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER ABOUT 08Z. THIS SHOULD
REMAIN ALL RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 10 OR 11Z...AFTER WHICH TIME COOLING
OF THE COLUMN WILL BEGIN TO INDUCE A MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS
EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. IN TERMS OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS...EXPECT
IFR TO MVFR TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW AREAS OF LOW VFR
STILL MIXED IN EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OF TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND FORCE RAIN TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW. EXPECT LOWER VSBYS TO DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW...WITH CIGS GENERALLY
RUNNING IFR TO MVFR.

EXPECT THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SOME SCATTERED LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW VSBYS TO
RETURN BACK TO VFR...THOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL RETURN TO LAKE ONTARIO DURING TUESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK ON THE TUG
HILL...HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO MELT...WITH
WATER RUNNING OFF THE TUG HILL THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALLER CREEKS
FED BY THE TUG HILL AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL
CONTINUE TO FLOW NEAR BANKFULL DURING THIS PERIOD. TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE BOTH CREEKS AND MAIN STEM RIVERS
TO RISE.

THE BLACK RIVER IS ALREADY AT FLOOD STAGE AT WATERTOWN. SNOW
MELT WILL PUSH THIS GRADUALLY HIGHER...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES
LIKELY FOLLOWING RAINS ON TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS IS LIKELY
TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE BLACK RIVER FROM LOWVILLE TO
WATERTOWN. THE RIVER IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...PROBABLY UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR/THOMAS
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL/THOMAS