Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 221049
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
649 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will taper off from west to east today and temperatures will
remain fairly steady as a cold front crosses the region. High
pressure will help bring dry and warmer conditions on Tuesday into
Wednesday before the next round of unsettled weather arrives by
Wednesday evening, as a slow moving low pressure system tracks from
the Ohio valley towards the Great Lakes. Showers associated with
this system will affect the forecast area through the second half of
the week, while temperatures will remain near average.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A broken line of showers continues to gradually make its way across
western New York early this morning, the last vestiges of
precipitation preceding a cold frontal boundary that is currently
advancing across Lake Erie, while to the east, the last showers
associated with the pre-frontal trough are clearing out of the area.
Expect this last round of shower activity to gradually cross the
forecast area during the day, while current temperatures will change
little across far western New York, as daytime heating will be
offset by cold air advection behind the front. Temperatures across
the eastern half of the forecast area will have an opportunity to
climb into the mid 60s before the cooler air arrives late in the day.

The last of the post-frontal cloudiness should scatter out this
afternoon across western New York, skies should clear out this
evening across the North Country as post-frontal subsidence and
associated drying makes its way across the area. This, along with a
narrow area of high pressure moving overhead will make for a quiet
night across the region, with temperatures falling into the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be centered over New York Tuesday morning and is
forecast to drift/expand into New England through the next 24-36
hours. This should bring dry weather into Wednesday morning while
being supported with low amplitude ridging building over the
Northeast states so have backed off/delayed arrival of POPs for
Wednesday afternoon. Skies will be partly cloudy while the surface
high keeps any precipitation shielded to our northwest and
southeast. Temps warm above normal into the low to mid 70s on
Tuesday and Wednesday benefiting from warm air advection under
southerly flow. Overnight temps Tuesday night will remain mild also
due to southerly flow and warm advection aloft with lows only
slipping into the 50s.

Chance POPs are in place for Wednesday afternoon increasing to likely
Wednesday night into Thursday as a surface/700mb low is shown by
models slowly lifting across the Ohio Valley or southwest Ontario
depending on your model of choice. The combination of mid-upper
forcing from a deep trough, mid-low level moisture transport and a
low level jet and occluded front should result in fairly widespread
rain showers shifting across western and central NY ahead of the
low. There is also a possibility of a few elevated thunderstorms
Thursday as the core of the mid-level low pivots near western NY.
The low looks to transfer its center from near the eastern Great
Lakes to off the southern New England coast Thursday night as the
trough becomes negatively tilted. Chance POPs are in place behind
this low with some lingering wrap around moisture Thursday night.
Temperature-wise, readings should remain just above average
Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s slipping back into
the low to mid 50s Wednesday night. Cooler temps are expected
Thursday just shy of climo due to the extensive cloud cover and
associated precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The newly positioned coastal low will shift north into the Gulf of
Maine on Friday. Wrap around moisture and west to northwest upslope
flow off the lakes will keep chance POPs in play across western and
central New York. Slight to low chance POPs are forecast for Friday
night and Saturday as 00z models generally show our forecast area
between storm systems albeit with some timing differences with the
arrival of the next system. 00z EC and GEM models then show the next
system could bring in rain Saturday night or Sunday morning. The
system is forecast to then spread some rain showers north and east
across western and central NY through Sunday where mid-range chance
POPs have been included.

In regards to temperatures...the mercury will average close to
normal for Friday under weak cool advection and chances of showers
with max temps mainly in the mid 60s. Warmer air is then expected to
arrive for the weekend when highs will be upper 60s to lower 70s
with mid 70s possible is spots on Sunday. Low temps will remain
mild, only dipping into the low to mid 50s each night as dewpoints
do not slip below 50.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers continue to cross western NY early this morning in advance
of a cold frontal boundary currently crossing Lake Erie. MVFR
conditions will accompany the showers, with improvement to VFR later
this morning with the passage of the cold front and the arrival of a
drier, post-frontal airmass.

One exception will be in the higher terrain of the Southern Tier,
where IFR conditions will be found through around 13Z, after which
cigs should improve and eventually scatter out this afternoon, as a
substantial dry slot moves across the area behind the cold front.
The frontal passage will be accompanied by veering westerly winds
that will gust 25-30 kts this afternoon across the western half of
the forecast area. Winds should diminish tonight as an area of high
pressure moves overhead, with widespread VFR conditions expected
overnight.


Outlook...

Tuesday and Tuesday Night...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow across the lakes this morning will give way to
freshening southwesterly flow this afternoon as a cold front crosses
the region. The flow will build waves to 2-4 feet on the east end of
Lake Erie, but the choppy conditions will be short-lived, as high
pressure moves over the lakes tonight. Otherwise, tranquil
conditions will prevail on the lakes at least through the middle of
the week, as the high pressure is supplanted by a broad area of low
pressure that will maintain a weak pressure gradient across the
region.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD


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