Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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301
FXUS61 KBUF 151857
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
257 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sweep across the area late this afternoon and
early evening with a band of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Winds will become gusty along and behind the front, especially
for areas northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario. This front will
usher in much cooler temperatures for Monday with a few lake
effect rain showers. High pressure will then bring a return to
dry weather Tuesday through the end of the week with
temperatures warming to above normal again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure beginning to wind up over southern Ontario will track
into southern Quebec this evening. A strong cold front trailing
this low currently pushing through western Lake Erie and
western Ohio will plow quickly across the area through early
this evening, generally in the 4 pm to 9 pm time frame.

Strong forcing along the front will support a narrow line of showers
and isolated embedded thunderstorms. While instability is meager,
the strong forcing and strong wind fields aloft will bring very
gusty gusty winds along the cold front. There is a chance of
this line producing localized damaging winds. Upstream
observations are currently showing a narrow corridor of wind
gusts of 45 to 55 knots.

Winds will steadily diminish behind the passage of the cold front as
the stronger winds aloft move off and the pressure gradient relaxes.
A dry slot behind the cold front will bring a quick end to the rain
from west to east during the evening.

Increasing wrap around moisture and over-lake instability will
bring lake effect clouds and scattered showers overnight as flow
becomes westerly and then northwesterly. There will also be some
contribution from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay as well. Temperatures
will drop into the 40s by Monday morning.

Narrow bands of lake effect rain showers will continue southeast of
the lakes on Monday. The peak of the shower activity will be Monday
morning. The activity will then wind down Monday afternoon as high
pressure, subsidence and drier air build into the region. Cold air
advection will keep highs only in the lower 50s at lower elevations,
with mid to upper 40s across higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure across the Ohio valley will begin to build northeast
across the CWA Monday Night. This will bring dry weather through the
period.

Temperature-wise, Monday night will be coolest with temperatures in
the low to mid 30s across the interior sections. Climatologically
the growing season has ended across Wyoming, Cattaraugus, Allegany,
Jefferson and Lewis counties where the most widespread frost is
expected. Elsewhere, away from the lakes patchy frost is included in
the forecast but will have to monitor the need for any Frost
headlines if it looks widespread enough.  Warm air advection quickly
begins again on Tuesday with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s and
into the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday. Overnight lows show a
similar warming trend with temps Tuesday night mainly in the 40s and
milder Wednesday night into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak trough passes across southern Ontario early Thursday but its
the high pressure centered across the Tennessee Valley and mid-
Atlantic states will dominate throughout this period and keep the
region dry.

The warming trend that begins midweek continues into the weekend
with temperatures well above normal. Highs temperatures in the
upper 60s to around 70 on Thursday will warm to the low to mid 70s
by Saturday...values some 10 to 15 degrees above norm.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR and dry weather will prevail through mid afternoon. A
strong cold front will then sweep east across the area during the
late afternoon and early evening, producing a brief period of gusty
rain showers and associated MVFR conditions. There may be just
enough instability for an isolated thunderstorm as well. It will
become windy today with gusts of 25 to 30 knots becoming common from
late morning through mid afternoon. Winds will increase further
along and just behind the front, with gusts of over 40 knots
possible for a brief time northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario during
the late afternoon and early evening.

Tonight winds will quickly diminish and become northwest. Areas of
MVFR CIGS and scattered lake effect rain showers will develop as
much cooler air moves into the region.

Outlook...

Monday...Areas of MVFR with a chance -SHRA SE of the lakes.
Tuesday through Friday...VFR except for local IFR in river
valley fog each late night and early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will deepen further as it moves into southern Quebec
this evening. A strong trailing cold front will sweep across the
eastern Great Lakes through early evening. Winds will increase to
gale force on both Lakes Erie and Ontario this afternoon and evening
along and just behind the cold front. Sustained winds will increase
to around 35 knots on both lakes, although these gale force winds
will likely only last for a few hours. This will generate
significant wave height of up to 11 feet on Lake Erie and 13 feet on
Lake Ontario for a brief time.

Winds will then become northwest and slowly diminish late tonight
and Monday morning. Another period of stronger southwest winds will
develop Tuesday, though not as strong as today. This will likely
bring a round of Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lakes Erie and
Ontario.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A strong cold front will cross the lower Great lakes through
early evening. Southwest winds will increase ahead of the front,
then become west and increase further to gale force by late
afternoon and early evening, bringing significant wave action to
the entire New York shorelines of Lake Erie and Ontario. Winds
will then become northwest and quickly diminish Monday morning.

The Lake Ontario level is several feet lower than late spring,
and is about a foot above normal for the month of October. The
lower lake level reduces the risk of flooding along the
lakeshore even on windy days. However, the lakeshore is still
very fragile and unstable in many areas following the heavy
erosion from earlier this year. A Lakeshore Flood Warning
remains in effect for the entire Lake Ontario shoreline, with
the potential for more significant shoreline erosion and
associated damage.

Significant water rises are also expected at the northeast end
of Lake Erie from late afternoon through early this evening.
This combined with significant wave action will result in water
washing over route 5 near Hamburg. With this in mind, a
Lakeshore Flood Warning has been issued.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lakeshore Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Monday for NYZ004>007.
     Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for NYZ007.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Monday for NYZ001>003.
     Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>003-
     010>012-019-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ010-
     019-085.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020-040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Monday for
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for LOZ042-062.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for SLZ022-
         024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HITCHCOCK/TMA



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