Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 262051
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
451 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECT A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE FOR THE LABOR
DAY WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STRETCHED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM MICHIGAN BUT A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE LACK OF CUMULUS CLOUDS SUGGESTS ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST AFTER SUNSET.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT THIS TO TRIGGER A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT CLEARING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST TIMING WAS TAKEN FROM A BLEND OF SSEO
AND SREF RUNS. WEAK CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
LARGELY KEEP STORMS SUB-SEVERE. UPSTREAM CONVECTION DRIVEN BY A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT OVER MICHIGAN MAY
CLIP THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH BEST CHANCE OF STORMS FOUND
THERE. GENERAL QPF WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT UP TO A
HALF INCH WITH ANY STORMS CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT FAR AHEAD OF OR BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH THE COLDER SURFACE AIR LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTH OF NEW YORK WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST IN ITS WAKE. THIS
HIGH WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH DRY AIR CLEARING SKIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TUESDAYS TEMPS UNDER NORTHWEST COLD ADVECTION TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. CLEARING SKIES AND COOL AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA WILL COOL THINGS OFF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A TASTE OF EARLY AUTUMN ON THURSDAY AS HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...MAXIMIZING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALLOWING FOR READINGS
TO DIP AS LOW AS THE MID 40S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKES WILL
RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

FRIDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AND MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE DRY WARM SECTOR BEHIND THE
FRONT...NONETHELESS THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY NICK THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THESE ARE AREAS
THAT WILL BE CLOSEST TO ANY MOISTURE THAT MANAGES TO SPILL OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID
70S AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ADVECT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER THE REAL WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND WARMER WEATHER TO COME THIS WEEKEND...

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEPART TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WARM AIR SURGING NORTHWARDS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EASILY PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ON
SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE MID 60S...MAKING FOR A
BALMY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE OTTAWA
VALLEY SUNDAY...AND WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE AREA
REMAINS ENSCONCED IN A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE SPEED WITH WHICH THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
WITH THE GFS FAVORING A TYPICALLY FASTER OPEN WAVE CROSSING SUNDAY
NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF OPTS FOR A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT
CROSS UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL COVER THIS DIFFERENCE WITH
BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES AS NOMINALLY COOLER AIR
WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PROGGED TO IMPACT
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS AT BUF/IAG SHOULD
DIMINISH 22-00Z.

TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS COOL AND MOIST
WNW WIND FLOW PASSES ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THESE LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER. BEHIND THE FRONT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER NEW YORK FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR EACH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO WITH A WNW
DIRECTION. THESE WNW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE WAVE HEIGHTS ON LAKE
ONTARIO LATER WEDNESDAY WITH SCA POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO WATERS. WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET OR LESS
ON LAKE ERIE WITH THE PERPENDICULAR WIND FLOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL/SMITH
MARINE...SMITH/THOMAS







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