Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 281935
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
335 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES
AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO NEW ENGLAND. LOOK FOR A FEW SUNNY
BREAKS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING MORE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK BEFORE A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS A BRIEF RESPITE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF THE
LAST 24-30 HOURS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY
AND THE DIMINISHED LOW IS NOW CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
STATE. NONETHELESS PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW AND THIS IS
CONTINUING TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW
CENTER FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL BACK FROM THE
NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND
PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURE FALLS TO A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS
A WEAK AND TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER GETS COMPLETELY
STRIPPED OUT...SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
CLOUD COVER RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN ONCE WE BREAK OUT OF
THE MORNING STRATUS...NONETHELESS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNNY
BREAKS TO CONSTITUTE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AS COMPARED TO THE
GLOOMY WEATHER OF THIS WEEKEND. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY TAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
FORECASTS AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE HILLTOPS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SLOWER TO DEPART.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THAT WILL BE TRANSITING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A REFLECTION OF YET ANOTHER LOW THAT
WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE SUCCESSION OF FEATURES
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS EXPECT THE QUIET WEATHER MONDAY
TO BE BUT A BRIEF RESPITE AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. IN FACT THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS HERALDING THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA/EXTREME SW NY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. INITIAL
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH SHOWERS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WNY BY DAYBREAK.
WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY...A BIT
MORE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PUT A HOLD ON DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO...BUT INLAND AREAS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION WILL HAVE BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...LI`S FALLING TO -3 TO -5C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C
IN THE 900-700 LAYER. IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY... A
MOIST (PWATS NEAR 1.50 INCHES) WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH SEVERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT A
STILL 30 KNOT LLJ COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR
THE REGION...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM THE POLAR REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE OVERALL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...AND
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PATTERN WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SUMMER NORMALS. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S A GOOD 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL START COOL AND LIKELY DRY.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FUNNELING COOL AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT A STILL PRESENCE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. A FEW UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COOLER HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS...A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS NOT STRONG...BUT COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A DRY OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...RETURNING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS STILL DEBATABLE BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

FROM HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE...WITH THE ECMWF FARTHER
NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WEEKEND SHORTWAVE. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...A
ANOTHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE...BUT IF THE GFS VERIFIES...KEEPING
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTHWARD...THEN
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RAINFREE TIME. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR BREAKS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION
AS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS ONSHORE
AND UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH THE HELP OF LINGERING WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE CROSSES THE AREA. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT AFTER
DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE
REGION...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15Z MON. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 00Z ACROSS FAR SW NY.


OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY OBS INDICATE THAT WAVES HAVE COME DOWN ENOUGH ON LAKE
ONTARIO TO ALLOW REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. EXPECT
WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRANQUIL
DAY ON THE LAKES BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE BULK
OF THE WAVE ACTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD


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