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000
FXUS61 KBUF 080430
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1130 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DRIFT EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A FEW
STRAY SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW MORE WEAK STORM SYSTEMS MAY CROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REMAINING QUIET OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE AND EASTERN MID ATLANTIC STATES SLIPS
EASTWARD.

A WEAK COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHING FROM QUEBEC TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK. CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY. ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF UPPER DYNAMICS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT I.E. LESS THAN AN INCH. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE
NORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING A NORTHWEST FLOW OF SOMEWHAT
COLDER AIR MAY PROVE TO BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME VERY
LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. 850MB TEMPS BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND -13C WILL ONLY SUPPORT LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF
AROUND 5K FEET BUT THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...AND ALSO IN UPSLOPE AREAS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES. AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT IF
ANYTHING FORMS...WITH A SPOTTY DUSTING TO AN INCH.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ANY VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO SHOULD END. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH THICKENING MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

SUNDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT
IN DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
WARM FRONT IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME. SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH SNOW CHANCES DECREASING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT
TOWARDS THE PA STATE LINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE FAR WEST AND A DEEPENING MIDCONTINENTAL
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
LOWER 48. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE NO EXCEPTION AS ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE WILL DIVE OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT
LATE WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP.

THE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPIN UP IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT...TRACK ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A FRESH PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE
JUST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NORTHWARD
PUSH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE SLOWLY EDGING FARTHER SOUTH ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS
AND EVEN THE WPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION OFFERS LITTLE CONCRETE
ASSURANCE AS THE TO EXACT TRACK OF THE APPALACHIAN STORM.

GIVEN THE PATTERN EVOLUTION...A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS LIKELY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES...BUT WITH PLENTY OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING TRACK AND TIMING. ALL POSSIBILITIES ARE ON THE TABLE AT
THIS POINT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY FROM DRY AND COLD TO A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN
THE HWO FOR NOW. IT WILL LIKELY STILL BE SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE ANY
SENSE OF MODEL CONSISTENCY EMERGES.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC STORM AND WILL
CREST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND BROAD SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SLIPS EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS TO
ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO LOW END VFR BY DAYBREAK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW STRAY SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY
VFR VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH SOME MVFR VSBYS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. MVFR CIGS TOMORROW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
BACK TO VFR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND WAVES REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...LEVAN