Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 141945
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
345 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WITH SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE
30S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY MONDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING BACK DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
REMAINING CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PRESENT AN IDEAL SETUP FOR EXTENSIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...A FEW OF
THE MORE SHELTERED SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S. IN FACT...WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT
BEING FOUND OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT.. INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF LEWIS COUNTIES WILL
LIKELY DIP INTO THE MID 30S. A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THOSE AREAS. THE SAME TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CATTARAUGUS...ALLEGANY AND WYOMING COUNTIES WITH A FROST ADVISORY
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN
ONTARIO WILL TRANSLATE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH
MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 100 KNOT UPPER JET STREAK. TIMING OF THE
ATTENDANT FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS CENTERED ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...A NOTABLE INCREASE IN FORCING WILL COMMENCE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS IN THE PRESENCE OF
BRIEF FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET SUPPORT. MODEST MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WEST BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS PROCESS WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW AT THE ONSET GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE EXISTING DRY
LAYER. AN EXTENSIVE CANOPY OF HIGH CLOUD WILL MINIMIZE THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION. AT THIS
STAGE...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE. WHILE THE SURFACE
FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...IT WILL HELP TO GENERATE AN AREA
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AUGMENTED BY
STRONGER LIFT FROM THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS THAT FORCED
BY A REGION OF DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A SUPPORTING
UPPER LEVEL JET. ALL OF THIS WILL IN TURN ACT ON A DEEP ENOUGH AND
FAVORABLE ENOUGH SWATH OF MOISTURE TO BRING A QUICK-MOVING ROUND OF
SHOWERS TO OUR REGION...FOR WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE
LOW-END CATEGORICAL RANGE. GIVEN THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM AND PWATS OF AROUND AN INCH...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...BUT SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF AN INCH IN MOST SPOTS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY RIDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END DURING THE
COURSE OF TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WEST-TO-EAST
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

AFTER THAT...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE WASHING OUT ALTOGETHER ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE LIMITED ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE LACK OF NOTEWORTHY
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...WILL CONTINUE TO JUST INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONT FOR NOW...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
OTHERWISE CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL REMAIN BELOW MID SEPTEMBER AVERAGES
GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
TO GENERALLY AVERAGE OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...BEFORE POSSIBLY
DROPPING BACK SOME 3-5 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
BRIEFLY WORKS INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST
CONCERNS FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM NEW YORK STATE TO
THE MAINE COASTLINE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CANADA.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OUR
REGION...THE CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY OUT OF IT WILL ALSO HELP TO
PUMP EVEN WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO FINALLY CLIMB BACK TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS BETWEEN 3-5K FEET ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINAL WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY  WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR VALLEY FOG
IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
SHOULD REACH WESTERN AREAS AFTER 22Z.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE
LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND
MUCH OF THE WAVE ACTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SHORES OF
THE LAKES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ006>008-012-
     020-021.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA







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