Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 210305
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1105 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
DEVELOPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LAKE
ERIE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE CWA.

OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE LOW NOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND REACH NY BY 12Z TUESDAY... AN UNUSUAL
LOW TRACK FROM A CLIMATOLOGY STANDPOINT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED WITHIN
AREAS OF DPVA AHEAD OF SEVERAL NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY TUESDAY...WEAKENING WITH
EASTERN EXTENT. THE SECOND IS FORECAST TO WRAP INTO WESTERN NY ON
TUESDAY. WHILE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE TRANSIENT AND
COMPLEX NATURE OF FORCING WITH THE LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
WILL MAKE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN
DIFFICULT AT BEST. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
CATEGORICAL POPS BUT KEPT THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN
MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH LOWER 40S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION...AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE EXTENSIVE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE SHOULD
SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY
AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND A FRESH SLUG OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINING CONSISTENT...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. PLENTY OF MARITIME AIR WILL BE WRAPPED WESTWARD
INTO THE REGION CONTINUING THE DREARY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
REMAINS FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

AN IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO COME BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS REDUCING TO MVFR THEN IFR. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
WITH MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. BY
TUESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN
NY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND RESULT IN IFR CIGS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NY BY AROUND 12Z TUE. EXPECT
THIS IFR TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH VERY MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND NORTHEAST FLOW. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS
WELL...AND COMBINE WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR
THE LOW CENTER.

LATER TUESDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN






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