Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 252013
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
313 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL RIDGE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS IT SLIDES TO THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWINGS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS SECOND
FRONT...A RETURN TO COLDER AND MUCH MORE TYPICAL WINTERTIME
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL RIDGE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA AS ITS CENTER SLIDES
TO THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY SPOTTY LIGHT
LEFTOVER OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY ENDING THIS EVENING...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATED. AT THE SAME TIME...WINDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BACK TO MUCH MORE TYPICAL LEVELS THIS
EVENING...WHERE THEY WILL THEN REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY.

ALL THE ABOVE STATED...SKIES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE OUT FAIRLY
CLOUDY RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME BRIEF
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...REGIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEALTH OF LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST...AND THESE
WILL ONLY BECOME INCREASINGLY TRAPPED UNDER A STRENGTHENING/
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BURGEONING HIGH
TONIGHT...WITH ANY HOLES TENDING TO FILL IN AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL INFLUENCES.

AT THIS POINT...DO NOT EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO EVEN BEGIN TO BREAK
UP UNTIL AT LEAST SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND POTENTIALLY ALLOW
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
SHOULD THIS ACTUALLY COME TO FRUITION...THIS WOULD EVENTUALLY
ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
DURING FRIDAY...WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO
REMAIN LOCKED UNDER LOW CLOUDS FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...A DECENT GRADIENT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
TONIGHT...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP HOLD TEMPS UP ABOVE FORECAST LOW TEMPS FROM THE
MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LIKELY NOT DROPPING
BELOW THE MID 30S...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONLY GETTING A FEW
DEGREES COLDER THAN THAT. ON FRIDAY...A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY
GRADIENT AND 925 MB TEMPS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF ZERO
CELSIUS SHOULD THEN ALLOW READINGS TO RECOVER TO THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE MID 40S ELSEWHERE...ASSUMING THAT
THE EXPECTED PARTIAL SUNSHINE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DEVELOPS AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. GENERAL WARM ADVECTION ON
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE REGIME...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ANY PRECIP. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND STILL APPEARS SLOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP SATURDAY COMPLETELY DRY. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BOOST 850MB TEMPS
ABOVE 0C AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 40S IN MOST AREAS. SOME OF THE NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY MAY FLIRT WITH 50.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THE ADVANCING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRENGTHENING 160+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT...
WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
OVERALL THE FRONT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT MAY STILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE EAST
OF BOTH LAKES WITH SOME LIMITED HELP FROM LAKE MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT BY THEN MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE GONE.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS ENDING AS A FEW WET
FLURRIES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IF UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT LASTS LONG
ENOUGH.

ON SUNDAY ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL FORCE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER 30S. THE AIRMASS
QUICKLY DRIES OUT SO THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING
LATER IN THE DAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE HOLD
WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE TOWARD BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL COME
DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER...SO IT APPEARS TO BE A MAINLY DRY
PERIOD WITH A FEW MINOR EXCEPTIONS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON MONDAY COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
LAKES. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD A DRY
AIRMASS...SHALLOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND PLENTY OF SHEAR WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT ANY LAKE RESPONSE OTHER THAN SOME CLOUDS. ON TUESDAY A WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOWER LAKES BY BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF...WITH THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WITH A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE EAST OF THE LAKES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC WITH A GENERAL COLD WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME LAKE RESPONSE EAST OF THE LAKES
DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OR SO WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES.

OTHERWISE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION RIGHT THROUGH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS REMAINING PREDOMINANT THROUGH TONIGHT...
WITH SOME IFR CIGS AGAIN BECOMING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT.

ANY NOTEWORTHY IMPROVEMENT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY...
WHEN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND POTENTIALLY
ALLOW SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
SHOULD THIS ACTUALLY COME TO FRUITION...THIS WOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE
NORTH COUNTRY WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCKED UNDER MVFR CIGS
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THE
NIAGARA RIVER...AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE GALE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN REPLACED WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...LOWER-END GALES LIKELY STILL PERSIST AND
SHOULD LINGER A WHILE LONGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
FINALLY DIMINISHING TO BELOW GALE FORCE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. AFTER THAT TIME...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES WILL RESULT IN WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE DAY.

A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LIFT ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND THE OTTAWA
VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY-WORTHY CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT WARMING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED RAIN AND SNOW MELT ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION AND THIS
COUPLED WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
PUSHED THE BLACK RIVER ABOVE ACTION STAGE AT BOONVILLE. THE RIVER
IS FORECAST TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING...WITH THE
CREST EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY DOWN TO WATERTOWN BY SATURDAY...
WHERE THE RIVER SHOULD CREST JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE ACTION STAGE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043>045-
         063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...JJR






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