Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 241038
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
638 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer is on its way with highs climbing through the 70s and into
the 80s.  After a dry day across Western New York on Tuesday, a
scattered shower or thunderstorm is possible each day leading up to
and into the Memorial Day weekend. Temperatures may reach the mid-
80s across the lower elevations by Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A narrow ridge of high pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will
build across the region today in between a closed low moving off the
New England Coast and the next approaching shortwave over the upper
Great Lakes. The dry airmass and subsidence will support abundant
shine across much of the region, with perhaps a few high, thin
clouds sneaking into the North County on the back side of the
aforementioned closed-low. 850 mb temperatures will run only
slightly warmer than yesterday, about +12C. However, the strong late-
May sun will combine with increasing mixed westerly winds to bump
temperatures up a degrees or two. Thus highs will mainly be in the
upper 70s in the higher terrain and about 80 in the lower elevations.
The only place where this won`t hold true will be just northeast of
Lakes Erie and Ontario, near Buffalo and Watertown, where the
westerly flow will help the lake breeze penetrate farther inland.
Have cooled temperatures near the Buffalo waterfront compared to
yesterday, and held KBUF and KART in the upper 70s.

Tonight will see continued clear skies early, then increasing clouds
from northwest to southeast overnight. A weak shortwave will track
through Ontario and flatten out the previously sharp ridge axis. The
associated weak frontal boundary will approach Lake Ontario by 12Z
Wednesday. Thus any possible showers will hold off until after the
overnight period. The only sensible impacts overnight will be
increasing cloud cover, a continued westerly breeze, and increasing
low-level moisture, all of which will help keep overnight lows in
the 50s to near 60 in the typical downslope areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Wednesday the mid/upper level ridge will continue to build into
the Ohio Valley and support the slow trend upwards in temperatures.
A weak mid level trough will cross Quebec and New England with a
very subtle trailing surface trough grazing the lower Great Lakes.
00Z model guidance continues to back off on rain potential with this
weak boundary, owing to the lack of large scale forcing and lack of
instability. With this in mind, have removed the POPS from western
NY and kept just a low chance across central NY and the North
Country where slightly better forcing will be found. A moderate
southwest breeze will develop by afternoon, especially from the
Niagara Frontier to the Rochester area where gusts may reach 35 mph
in the afternoon. Highs will reach into the lower 80s at lower
elevations, with mid to upper 70s across the North Country. The
southwest breeze will keep Buffalo and the Jefferson county shore
cooler.

Any lingering isolated showers east of Lake Ontario will end
Wednesday evening. This will leave a mainly dry night as a ridge of
high pressure builds from New England to the Mid Atlantic.
Temperatures will remain quite mild with lows in the lower 60s on
the lake plains of western NY, and mid 50s in the cooler Southern
Tier valleys and North Country.

Thursday will bring the best chance of somewhat more widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms as more coherent forcing crosses
the region. A mid level trough and associated vorticity maxima will
cross the lower Great Lakes from west to east and combine with a
broad warm advection regime to produce a period of organized large
scale ascent. MUCAPE reaches around 1000J/kg during the afternoon
and will be sufficient to support scattered thunderstorms with
locally heavy downpours, but otherwise a lack of deep layer shear
will limit thunderstorm intensity. Expect highs in the lower half of
the 80s across lower elevations inland from the lakeshores.
Dewpoints will also creep upward into the low to mid 60s, the first
of many muggy days ahead.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will slowly diminish in coverage
Thursday night with the loss of diurnal instability and as better
forcing and warm advection exit to the east. Lows will be very mild
in the mid 60s on the lake plains, and around 60 across interior
sections.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very summery pattern will be firmly in control Friday through
early next week across the region as a classic Bermuda high sets up
over the western Atlantic, pumping heat and humidity into the Ohio
Valley and Northeast. The warmth and humidity will bring a chance of
a few scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, but there will
be plenty of rain free time as well.

Looking at the details, on Friday and Saturday the heart of the
mid/upper level ridge will build directly overhead. Temperatures are
likely to peak on Saturday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s
inland from the lakes. Expect scattered thunderstorms to develop
each day, with a peak in coverage during the afternoon and evening
with diurnal heating. The better chances of convection will be found
along and inland of the lake breeze boundaries, with the lowest
chances over and northeast of the lakes.

By Sunday and Monday more Atlantic moisture may be drawn into the
area as easterly flow increases up the east coast ahead of a weak
quasi-tropical low drifting northward through the southeast states.
This may bring a little better coverage of showers and scattered
thunderstorms, and also decrease the reliance on diurnal instability
and lake breezes for convection to develop. Temperatures will remain
well above average for late May.

Looking farther ahead, it looks like the summer heat and humidity
will continue through the first week of June as the Bermuda high
sits in place and zonal flow remains confined to north of the
Canadian border.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure will build across the region today bringing
abundant sunshine and a light westerly breeze, resulting in
widespread VFR conditions.

A few high, thin clouds will build across the region from northwest
to southeast late tonight, but widespread VFR conditions with a
light westerly breeze will continue.

Outlook...
Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will build across the lakes today bringing
abundant sunshine and westerly breeze. Winds and waves will remain
fairly negligible through the next few days. The tranquil pattern
will continue through the end of the week, although a few
thunderstorms may produce locally higher winds and waves at times
each day from Wednesday through next weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH


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