Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 250840
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EARLY TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL REGION.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY...SURFACE OBS SHOW
IT TO BE JUST NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AT 06Z. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA 12Z TO 15Z. THE
TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE DAY WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THE EARLY MORNING
READINGS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH THE INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR ALONG AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THE NORTHWESTERLY SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AND HE COLDER AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VERY SHALLOW
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...MORESO
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH THE MOIST AIRMASS IS VERY SHALLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 2000FT
TO 2500FT...THE AIR TEMP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE RIGHT AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER...AND STRONG DRYING SUBSIDENCE
ABOVE THAT. THIS LAKE EFFECT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL QUICKLY DROP AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY
OUT...FORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE TO
WEAKEN TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
DURING THE MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH... MAINLY FROM THE
GREATER ROCHESTER AREA INTO THE FINGER LAKES.

BY AFTERNOON EVEN THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CRASH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW...AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE
SURFACE WINDS BECOME DIVERGENT AND OFFSET THE UPSLOPE ALLOWING SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK.

A CLIPPER PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WILL
BRING A THICKENING CLOUD DECK AND CHANCES TO LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESUPPLY COLD AIR AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIAS WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND TRANSFORM ITSELF INTO A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
WINTER STORM AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THE WORST
EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST...OUR WEATHER
WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY QUIET EITHER...AS A TRAILING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP INTO OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY...BEFORE
SLOWLY FADING OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS IN FACT TRENDED
A LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WOULD NOW SUGGEST THAT MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SEE A LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BUMPED UP BOTH
POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
HIGHEST OF BOTH FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE THE BEST
OVERALL MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT...AND WHERE SOME LOW-END
ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.

WHILE SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE INVERTED TROUGH /WHERE MOISTURE MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS DEEP/ BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AT THIS JUNCTURE MODEL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD LARGELY BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE...AND AS SUCH HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THIS IN THE GOING FORECAST.

DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY...THE COASTAL WINTER STORM WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...
WHILE LIKELY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NEW ENGLAND AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. WHILE THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SAFELY TO OUR EAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z
GFS/GLOBAL GEM AND ECMWF ALL NOW AGREE ON WRAPPING THE WESTERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOWS BACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD DURING TUESDAY...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST...A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW OF
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY
PULLS FURTHER AWAY...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL AVERAGE SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10 ABOVE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS AS IF IT MAY
BRING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION...
THOUGH HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVEN CONTINUED NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES IN TIMING SEEN IN THE
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AN
INITIAL NORTHWESTERLY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PROBABLY GENERATE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE READINGS FALL OFF AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT INTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT AN EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS IS POISED TO SWEEP INTO
OUR REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGESTING 850 MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO BETWEEN MINUS 25
AND MINUS 30 CELSIUS NEXT WEEK SUNDAY. SHOULD THIS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE START OF FEBRUARY SHOULD FEATURE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...AND PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO
DATE. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR AND IFR WITHIN A LOW
STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT HAS LARGELY
PASSED AT THIS POINT...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND
WAVES DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH








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