Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 241547
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1147 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON WILL BE ON TAP FOR WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSES
THE REGION. COOL AIR ALOFT HAS STEEPENED LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ENOUGH TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD STRATOCU ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
USUAL LAKE SHADOW AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES. EXPECT THESE AREAS OF
LAKE INDUCED CLEARING TO GRADUALLY WORK THEIR WAY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LIGHT NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE
LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATION. FARTHER INLAND...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE COOL AIR
AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S...WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE MOST PART...OUTSIDE OF SOME THIN CIRRUS OR
MID LEVEL CLOUD CROSSING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A COOL/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LAKE
PLAINS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER AND HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A FEW OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS MAY MAKE A RUN
AT THE UPPER 30S. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY MILDER IN
THE MID 50S. THE STRONG COOLING WILL SUPPORT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE THEN SHIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HELPING TO PUSH A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE DETAILS...FRIDAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
EXPECT ANY VALLEY FOG IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS FRIDAY MORNING TO
BURN OFF VERY QUICKLY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH VERY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING IN PLACE. FRIDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AND SHOULD BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE IN THE OHIO VALLEY
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT JUST SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH ONE MORE NIGHT OF VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THIS WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THIS MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE DAY...WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT CROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AS WELL AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED AND TAPS INTO MORE HUMID AIR
RESIDING SOUTH OF THE AREA. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT TO FALL BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW AMPLIFIES A BROAD 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPERATURES LOWERING BELOW
AVERAGE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW OPENS TO A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PHASES WITH A 500MB LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVER AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BROUGHT ON BY SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -2SD 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL BRING INCREASINGLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL TOP OUT AROUND AVERAGE WHILE MONDAYS HIGHS WILL RUN 5 OR
MORE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE 500MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AT -3SD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE MOST OF THE TIME WILL
REMAIN COOL AND DRY THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S OR 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A PACIFIC
SOURCED AIRMASS WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL ONLY RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SCT/BKN VFR STRATOCU IN PLACE
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH CLOUD COVER LARGELY DISSIPATING TOWARDS SUNSET. LIGHT
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATION WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15KTS POSSIBLE INVOF THE LAKESHORES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR PREVAILING IN
MOST AREAS. EXPECT TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR
DEVELOPING AFTER ABOUT 06Z FRI. SOME OF THIS MAY DEVELOP AT KJHW...
BUT THE MORE DENSE FOG SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER ALLEGHENY
AND UPPER GENESEE RIVER BASINS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY
NOSING INTO THE AREA...HENCE HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME. FAIR SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN ON
THE LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTH. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A
RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD






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