Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 300539
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
139 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN.
THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE A
STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED WET SNOW SHOWERS...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALL OF THIS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AND VERY LIGHT
IN NATURE...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE LIGHT
SNOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. MAY SEE A COATING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION THERE...WITH A FEW
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. AFTER THIS...NAM/RGEM/GFS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A
SHARP VORT MAX DIVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME RESPONSE IN
THE QPF FIELD. THIS SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT.

WITH SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE MAJORLY
SNOW...EVEN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. AREAS THAT
COULD RECEIVE RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY WILL BE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE SHORES...AND THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER
SLUSHY INCH OR TWO TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
ELSEWHERE WHERE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRIM
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.

A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. AS THE TRACK IS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...IT BECOMES MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL FALL AS SNOW. EARLY MORNING SNOW
MAY GIVE WAY TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SNOW
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND DYNAMIC COOLING LESSENS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN NY...LESSENING TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM ADVECTION
TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR MID
LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO THE UPPER
40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE
DAYS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED WET SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR VSBY...EXCEPT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING KART WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW MAY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR. CIGS WILL
DROP TO MVFR BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY. THE MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. ALL
AREAS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR.

IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION AND UP TO 35 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCREASING
SSW FLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FLOW TENDS
NOT TO MIX WINDS ALOFT TOO WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COME
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW. WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH FORECAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE OUTSIDE OF A FEW GUSTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL





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