Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 230025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
825 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY
BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING MUCH OF THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
NOW EITHER DISSIPATED IN PLACE OR MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION AS A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL
PRESENT. THIS INVERTED TROUGH ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. WITH NO
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS PERSISTENCE
WILL BE THE RULE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG FORMING
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO HELPING TO KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED GOING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK. MUCH OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION RECEIVED A
GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON MAKING THEM GOOD
CANDIDATES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL.

SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOW BE IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WITH
THESE GENERALLY BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT
FEATURE ON OUR WEATHER MAP WILL NOW BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE LAST SPOKE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING OUT OF NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY SUSTAIN JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LESSEN AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...AND LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
JUST EAST OF THE REGION...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL HELP RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN  MOST LOCATIONS
TO THE LOWERS 80S IN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN THE NICE STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO THE ECMWF PROJECTING MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS
A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SLOWER MOVING UPPER TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH FASTER LESS
AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THUS THE GFS SURFACE REFLECTION SHOWS A
STRONGER SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS LEFT BEHIND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY
FALLING BACK EVEN MORE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS A COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...AND A BIT COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BEING FOUND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHCENTRAL
NEW YORK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH NO STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
BRING A CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE RULE WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG FORMING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WILL
ALSO HAVE A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO HELPING TO KEEP
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED GOING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. MUCH OF THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION RECEIVED A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON MAKING THEM GOOD CANDIDATES FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG AS WELL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS AND FOG FOR KBUF/KROC/KIAG/KART...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS FOR KJHW.

SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIN OUT...WITH KJHW
POSSIBLY STAYING DOWN A BIT LONGER. MEANWHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. EXPECT MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE BRIEFLY IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JM
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JM
MARINE...FRANKLIN







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