Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KBUF 241131
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE TODAY...AS ANY
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MIXES
OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AND LEFTOVER CLOUDS OVER THE FINGER LAKES
AND NORTH COUNTRY RECEDE OFF TO OUR EAST AS THEIR PARENT SURFACE LOW
FINALLY LIFTS OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH PRESSURE/
DRIER AIR RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN +6C AND
+9C...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD LARGELY REACH INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
THE WARMEST TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVER TIME...
WITH THIS TREND MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S. THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS
FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL BE THE LATEST TO SUPPORT THIS PATTERN...AS IT WILL DIRECT A
DEEP PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ANY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED
UP IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.

MEANWHILE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EAST WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS A DIRECT RESULT OF A VERY POTENT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST DURING REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERALL FLOW PROGRESSIVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

A PAIR OF POTENT SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A
130KT H25 JET WILL DIG OUT A FRESH LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IN THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY PCPN FREE WITH ONLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH
QPF GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ACTIVITY COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (NORTH OF TUG). WILL
LEAVE LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOMEWHAT CHILLY AIR WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO C AND THIS WILL SET UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKES TO GENERATE SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
BULK OF THESE WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. OVER LAKE ERIE...A SERIOUS LACK OF
MOISTURE ABV 5K FT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS...
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CHANNELLED VORTICITY OVER THE REGION COULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A VERY COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR (ALBEIT
PACIFIC MODIFIED) OVER OUR REGION WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE CORE OF A STRONG UL JET.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE TUG FROM CONTINUED
MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES...WHICH BY THE WAY WILL WEAKEN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN NOSE NORTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENSURE A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING NUISANCE LAKE RAIN SHOWERS ENDING
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

ON MONDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION WILL GENERATE SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT A WEALTH OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NICE DRY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SINUSOIDAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ENSURE THAT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN A BROAD
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUMP ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION.

H85 TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO ARND 12C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND WHEN FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE BUF 74 IN 1946...
ROC 76 IN 1984...AND WATERTOWN 75 ALSO IN 1984. THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT BEARING DOWN ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THOUGH...SO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SCREECHING HALT TO
THE SOARING TEMPS. THE FRONT IS SOME 3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP THE CHANCE FOR A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME SHOWERS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POOL OF PACIFICALLY
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WILL GLANCE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A PAIR OF SEASONABLY COOL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MIXING OUT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING THIS MORNING...AND LEFTOVER LOW AND MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY RECEDING OFF TO OUR EAST
AS THEIR PARENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN TURN...THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER-END VFR OR EVEN MVFR CLOUD COVER OVER
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TODAY AND BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AREAWIDE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION...AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SOLID ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES...BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.