Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 052032
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
332 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARDS
ZERO...AND BELOW ZERO INLAND AND AWAY FROM LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
STREAMERS. SHIFTING WINDS WILL TAKE THESE WEAKENING AND NARROW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STREAMERS FROM SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING TO
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE NOW PUSHING
EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS WNY. RADAR DISPLAYS
CONTINUED LIGHT AND NARROW STREAMERS OF SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. MINOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE MOST PERSISTENT OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

FOR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
MIDWEST OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK SOME AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHIFTING IN THE WIND WILL CARRY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE THE DRY
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DIMINISHES MOST OF THE
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE CLEARING IN SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. RECORD LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING ARE:
BUFFALO: 0/2007, ROCHESTER: -9/2014, WATERTOWN:-21/2014. THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH SUCH THAT WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND
-15F...BUT WITH BOTH TIME AND SPATIAL COVERAGE OF SUB -15F WIND
CHILLS (-20F NORTH COUNTRY) AT A MINIMUM WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES. "WARMEST" OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE LINGERING LAKE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURE READINGS.

THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FLURRY MAY REMAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE BACKING WINDS CARRY THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHERN CANADA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE IN THE MORNING
WILL HAVE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BRISK THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT
FROM A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THICKENING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO
EAST. WARM ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS ON
THE LAKE PLAINS WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE COLDEST SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING A MORE NOTABLE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK CLIPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE
REGION AS A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE...STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AND CONVERGENCE CROSS THE REGION. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE JUST A LIGHT
ACCUMULATION WITH AN INCH OR SO IN MOST AREAS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
INCHES EAST OF BOTH LAKES WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
HIGHER TERRAIN AND FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESS WITH THE LAKE PLAINS RISING TO AROUND 30...WITH
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

LATER SATURDAY NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE DISORGANIZED SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW UPWARD CREEP
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WARM-UP FOR NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TARGET FOR AT LEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
BRIEFLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE NATION. THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE THE WARMING ARRIVING ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS. IT STILL APPEARS THE WARMTH PEAKS WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS AT LEAST INTO THE MID 40S...AND POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL NY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN BRING
A BROAD TROUGH INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA BY THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND BRINGING AT LEAST SOME COOLING...
WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING BY FRIDAY.

THE WARM-UP APPEARS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BE KEPT AT BAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH NO RAIN FALLING THERE WILL BE
LITTLE OR NO FLOOD RISK INITIALLY. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
SIMPLY ALLOW THE SNOWPACK TO CONSOLIDATE AND RIPEN. WHILE THE DEPTH
OF SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL DROP...ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF WATER WILL
BE RELEASED AS THE INITIAL MELTWATER IS RE-ABSORBED BY THE REMAINING
SNOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG
ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME TO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE BREAKUP ON
THE STREAMS AND RIVERS...BUT WITHOUT RAIN OR SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF THE
ICE MAY VERY WELL STAY LARGELY IN PLACE DESPITE A FEW WARMER DAYS.
OVERALL...EXPECT THIS WARM-UP TO RIPEN THE SNOWPACK...BUT A GREATER
FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE REALIZED UNTIL THE NEXT WARM-UP WHEN THE
SNOW WILL BE MORE READY TO RELEASE ITS WATER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS (MVFR/LOW VFR) AND
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON. WITHIN THESE NARROW LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS WILL BE
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR VSBYS. WILL INCLUDE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS FOR
KBUF/KIAG AND THE KROC AIRFIELDS...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACTIVITY
LIKELY PERSISTING THE LONGEST ACROSS THE KROC AIRFIELD.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK AROUND TO WESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
MID WEST PUSHES EASTWARD AND THIS SHIFT IN WIND FLOW WILL TAKE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EASTERN END OF THE LAKE
ONTARIO. COUPLED WITH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DRIER AIR
WHICH WILL ERODE THE DECK OF CLOUDS HANGING OVER THE AIRFIELDS THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BY THIS EARLY EVENING
FOR ALL TAF SITES...WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THEN PERSISTING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. ONLY EXCEPTION MAYBE SOME
MVFR CIGS ACROSS KART DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE FROM
WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MID WEST BUILDS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
WINDS OVER THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. AS
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS THE LAKES TONIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHTER TONIGHT. BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE LAKES
TOMORROW AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER
THAT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS





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