Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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511
FXUS61 KBUF 261523
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1123 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary near the Mason Dixon line this morning will
move north as a warm front across New York State late today.
This will bring a return of some rain late this afternoon and
and evening over far Western New York, then over Central New
York later tonight. Another cold front may bring additional
scattered rain showers to the region Tuesday before an area of
high pressure brings drier air and cooler weather to the region
later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Light rain along a baroclinic boundary over the Eastern Lake
Ontario region has continued to weaken while moving east.
Meanwhile, temperatures in that region have reached the freezing
mark underneath what`s left of the band. Will therefore let the
Freezing Rain Advisory expire as scheduled.

For the rest of the Western NY today...a stout warm nose can be
seen in morning AMDAR and 12Z sounding data. Temperatures peak
at about 15C near 900mb or roughly 3000`. There is a weak EML
above this level with notably drier air working its way into the
region. With the deterioration of some of the low stratus stuck
below this inversion, some breaks of sun can be expected for
areas west of the Genesee Valley. This will allow afternoon
temperatures to climb well into the 50s, and perhaps a little
higher with more insolation.

It`s getting little bubbly to the south over the OH valley
along a warm front that`s tied to the surface low nearing
Chicago (underneath it`s parent cutoff low). Expect continued
convective development to move northeast through OH and
eventually reaching far Western NY late this afternoon or early
evening. Expect 1 or two rounds to work NE into the
region, with some thunder possible at least toward the Southern
Tier in the relatively warm and convective airmass.

With the passage of the next frontal boundary, expect southeast
winds to veer to southerly overnight. This will keep
temperatures mild when compared to many of the previous
nights.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave will track from Western New York to New England on
Monday. The best lift will be ahead of the 500 mb trough axis, with
steady rain lasting into Monday morning east of Lake Ontario. Even
here rainfall amounts will be light, averaging about a tenth of an
inch. Otherwise, precipitation will taper off showers from west to
east. By Monday afternoon, expect fair weather across most of
Western New York with pleasantly warm temperatures in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Scattered showers will linger across the Eastern Lake
Ontario region, limiting highs to the upper 40s.

The region will be between systems briefly Monday evening, with weak
mid-level ridging keeping it dry. Up until this point, model
guidance is in good agreement in timing the initial shortwave but
guidance diverges a bit after this. There is general agreement a mid-
level wave will cross Ohio Monday night, but the northern extent of
showers with this wave is still in question. This is likely to bring
showers to the region, with model consensus centered around the
Tuesday morning timeframe. These should only last a few hours, with
rainfall amounts averaging a quarter inch or less.

Showers should end by Tuesday afternoon across far western New York,
which should allow temperatures to rebound a bit. Highs will range
from lower 60s across the Western Southern Tier to the upper 40s
across the Eastern Lake Ontario region where showers should last
through the afternoon hours.

An upper level trough will settle across Southern Quebec on Tuesday
night while a northerly flow develops behind the departing surface
low. This will bring a brief shot of cooler air to the region, with
temperatures falling into the 30s Tuesday night. There may be some
light upslope enhanced showers. These may mix with snow across the
North County, but no accumulation is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The very lengthy period of unsettled weather will finally come to an
end by Wednesday as a mid level trough digs southeast across Quebec
and forces the frontal zone well south of our area. This will bring
an end to any lingering showers by Wednesday morning, but will also
deliver another push of cooler air into our region. The GFS is far
colder Wednesday than the ECMWF or GEM with its more amplified and
southerly trough position. Have followed a ECMWF/GEM weighted
consensus with highs ranging from the mid 40s to lower
50s on Wednesday.

Surface high pressure will build across Quebec Wednesday night and
Thursday with a ridge extending down into the eastern Great Lakes
and New England. This will provide a continuation of dry and cool
weather with highs in the 40s again Thursday and lows Wednesday
night and Thursday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s for most.

Model guidance diverges significantly by Friday and Saturday. The
GFS continues to suppress the next system well south of our area
with the moisture and forcing moving through the southeast states.
Similar to yesterday`s 12Z guidance, the 00Z ECMWF and Canadian GEM
are vastly different, taking a surface low through the central Great
Lakes. Have continued to lean towards the ECMWF/GEM consensus for
this period with rain chances increasing Friday through Saturday.
Temperatures will begin to rebound if this farther north low track
verifies, with highs back in the 50s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Precipitation has for the most part moved east of the eastern
Lake Ontario region this morning while temperatures has moved
above freezing. For the rest of the day expect a mixture of
clouds and some breaks of sun...mainly east of the Genesee
Valley under VFR conditions.

1 or two bands or showers with some thunderstorms possible will
move toward far Western NY late this afternoon from the OH
valley. Expect a broken line or lines to continue moving across
the Genesee Valley and into the Eastern Lake Ontario region
overnight. There will be an increasing chance for MVFR and some
IFR conditions from CIGS with the passage of these
showers...particularly in the hilly terrain toward the PA
border.

Outlook...

Monday...MVFR/IFR to start in rain showers, then improving in P.M.
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR cigs with periods of rain.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds will continue today across the Lower Great Lakes,
with a strong breeze and increasing wave heights continuing the
small craft advisory on the western waters of Lake Ontario.

Later today and tonight winds will veer to southeast and then
southerly as an area of low pressure tracks across the central
Great Lakes and towards NW Lake Ontario. As these winds veer,
they will increase some on the eastern half of Lake Ontario,
such that low end SCA wind thresholds will be met. Will issue a
SCA for the eastern waters for late this afternoon through
tonight.

This area of low pressure will track north of Lake Ontario Monday,
and in its weaken state, and warm air over the cold lake waters,
both winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042-
         043.
         Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
         Monday for LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS/ZAFF
MARINE...THOMAS



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