Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 282322
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
722 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWING NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CUMULUS ACROSS ALLEGANY COUNTY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THESE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
MIXING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND AROUND 50 IN THE COOLER
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM/GFS
SUGGESTING THE BULK OF THE RETURN MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE IN THE DAY. SBCAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN VERY TAME...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 15C. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCAL LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN NY
BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BY EARLY EVENING WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA



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