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000
FXUS61 KBUF 170531
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
131 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES OF
TODAY GIVING WAY TO MILDER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A QUIET SPELL OF WEATHER TO
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
THE PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE ONGOING ADVECTION OF WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY WARMER NIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT...NONETHELESS GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS DOWN IN
THE TEENS...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S INLAND WITH UPPER 20S
NEAR THE LAKES.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS EAST WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES PICK UP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUPLED WITH ONGOING WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO FLIRT
WITH THE 60 DEGREE MARK WHILE ELSEWHERE WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT CHILLY BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE NOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS TO ALL
AREAS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE ON
SATURDAY. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. LATE SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION.
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND
10KT THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 10-20KT POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RIVER LEVELS ON UPSTREAM PORTIONS OF THE BLACK RIVER
CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING...THE CREST ON THE BLACK RIVER HAS
NOT YET REACHED WATERTOWN AND GIVEN RECENT HYDROGRAPH TRENDS ON
THE BLACK RIVER...IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT THE RIVER WILL CREST
ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE IN WATERTOWN THURSDAY EVENING. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...LEVAN
HYDROLOGY...WOOD