Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KBUF 292023
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
423 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN TONIGHT RESULTING IN A DRY START
TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A UPPER-LEVEL WAVE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE DPVA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL ORGANIZE A BATCH OF
SHOWERS THAT WILL TRANSLATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY... MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH... WITH A DRY
NORTHEAST WIND AND DEW POINTS IN THE L30S/U20S WILL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ERODED ON THE NORTH SIDE. THUS LOCATIONS ALONG
THE THRUWAY... FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER TO SYRACUSE MAY ONLY SEE
SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS... OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE MAINLY VIRGA FOR THESE REGIONS. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL PICK A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF PRECIPITATION IN A FEW
HOURS BETWEEN 19 AND 23Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

A DRY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE IN STORE BEHIND THE WAVE PASSAGE AS
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH AT
THE SURFACE KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE. CLEARING CLOUD COVER...
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS... IN THE 30S TO LOW 30S IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY... WHICH WILL SEE THE MOST CLEARING.

ON SATURDAY... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS A WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... HOWEVER THE DRY FEED OF AIR
FROM THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL HELP TO ERODE AN INITIAL
SHOWERS THAT APPROACH THE REGION. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY... WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND VIRGA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SOUTHWEST NY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL... WITH HIGHS
IN THE U50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO NEW YORK/
PENNSYLVANIA. A SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH
THIS FEATURE AND AN ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT WILL SPREAD
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INTO OUR
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FORCING PEAKING OVER OUR REGION
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING... THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
SEGMENT SLIDES OFF INTO EASTERN NEW YORK.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS OUR
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY...
ALONG WITH A SLUG OF RAIN WORKING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH THE
BULK OF THE RAIN FALLING BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT BOOSTING POPS UP INTO THE CATEGORICAL
RANGE...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACCOMPANYING THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ALSO LOOK AS IF THEY WILL BE PRETTY RESPECTABLE JUDGING
FROM A 12Z MODEL QPF CONSENSUS...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
AS MUCH AS A THIRD TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL BETWEEN
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY
FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND A BIT BELOW AVERAGE ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES APPEAR
TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A SECONDARY
SURFACE WAVE FOLLOWING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST...ALBEIT
ON A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO MOST AREAS /WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/ LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...WITH THE RAIN THEN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS THIS SECOND WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...
AND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD MOSTLY
RANGE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER 40S... WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY
AGAIN HELD BACK A BIT BY LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND A COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW...WHICH SHOULD CONSPIRE TO KEEP READINGS CONFINED TO THE MID
50S.

FINALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND BRING A RETURN TO FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THIS PERIOD...WITH ATTENDANT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ALSO LEADING TO A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO RIGHT
AROUND AVERAGE LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS MOSTLY WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF 40 MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A STRONG RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR WARM WEATHER
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 TEMPS FOR OUR REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...AND THIS WILL EQUATE TO
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL EARLY MAY
VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL BE RAINFREE. THE BROAD BRUSH DETAILS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
GRUDGINGLY GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION...THEN THE FRONT WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A COMPLEX
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS THE
BULK OF THE RAIN AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CLOSER TO THE COAST...WITH
THE BACKEDGE OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA.

A LOOK FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD AT NEXT WEEKEND...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BASED ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS SHOULD KEEP RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD... WITH MVFR/IFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...
INCLUDING KJHW.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
AFTERNOON... BRINGING VERY LOW END MVFR TO NEAR IFR CIGS AT KJHW.
THE PRECIPITATION MAY ACTUALLY HELP CIGS MAINTAIN JUST ON THE MVFR
SIDE... HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS THERE. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AT KBUF/KIAG/KROC LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BUT WILL STAY VFR... WITH CIGS GENERALLY AROUND
3.5KFT. KART WILL SEE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS... WITH CIGS OVER
10KFT.

TONIGHT... EXPECT VFR CIGS AT KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART WILL SCATTER OUT
AND BECOME INCREASINGLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY AT KART. KJHW
WILL ACTUALLY SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AFTER A
FRESH RAIN... AND A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST ON THE LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
MIDWEST TOWARD THE LAKES SUNDAY... BRINGING A RETURN TO THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 4 FT ON THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.