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000
FXUS61 KBUF 120147
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
947 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT AND NEW
JERSEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WIDESPREAD HEAVY
SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE...
THE HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS
THAT WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS
OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING..

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SQUARELY ON A
STRONG LATE SEASON WINTER STORM THAT IS CURRENTLY STILL IN ITS
FORMATIVE STAGES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS A PAIR OF SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PHASE TOGETHER ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH THE RESULTING LONGWAVE TROUGH THEN
DEEPENING AND DIGGING FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK...THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING
EASTWARD ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE AND INTO NEW JERSEY DURING THE
COURSE OF WEDNESDAY.

WITH SUCH A DEEP AND IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM FOLLOWING ALONG SUCH A
TRACK...OUR ENTIRE AREA CAN EXPECT AN INITIAL ROUND OF MIXED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
THE BULK OF THE SNOW COMING BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WHEN THE BEST OVERALL DYNAMICS AND LIFT WILL COME TOGETHER
DIRECTLY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. 18Z GUIDANCE HAS DEVIATED LITTLE
FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...AND CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS REMAINS HIGH.

DIGGING INTO THE FORECAST DETAILS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND LIGHT RAIN IS ALREADY
STARTING TO BREAK OUT ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT ELSEWHERE IN A
SIMILAR FASHION DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW...AND
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A
150 KT JET STREAK PASSING ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC. AT THE
ONSET...STILL-WARM TEMPS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT AN
INITIAL PTYPE OF PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT RAIN...BEFORE A MIX WITH
SLEET/SNOW AND EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY SNOW TAKES PLACE
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE EXPERIENCING ALL
SNOW...SAVE FOR AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER WHERE A NARROWING
SWATH OF ABOVE-FREEZING AIR ALOFT WILL STILL SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIGHT...MIXED...AND WARM ADVECTIVE NATURE OF
TONIGHT/S PRECIP...ANY SNOW/SLEET ACCUMS THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
SHOULD RANGE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS...WITH MOST OF THESE
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

ON WEDNESDAY...THINGS WILL DRAMATICALLY TURN FOR THE WORSE AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AS THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PASSES BY TO OUR
SOUTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR AREA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...WITH A STRONG SHOT OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE LOW-MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE...AND BOTH OF THESE OVERLAID BY A PRONOUNCED
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND ATTENDANT ZONE OF STRONGLY
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALSO IN PLACE AND
ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO COMING INTO PLAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL ADD UP TO A WIDESPREAD HEAVY
SNOWFALL AREAWIDE...WITH THE WORST OF THE SNOW GENERALLY COMING
BETWEEN THE LATER MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6-11 INCHES...WITH THE
LOWEST ACCUMS NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG THE NY/PA
LINE...AND THE HIGHEST OVERALL AMOUNTS COMING IN AREAS OF FAVORED
OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. CLOSER TO THE
NEW YORK-PENNSYLVANIA BORDER...A WINTRY MIX TO START THE DAY WILL
ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN A TENTH OR TWO OF ICE ACCUMULATION...BEFORE
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION DRIVES A CHANGEOVER TO ALL
SNOW BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.

AS IF ALL OF THE ABOVE WERE NOT ENOUGH...THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TO
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE WINDS LIKELY PEAKING
DURING THE TIME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE NORTHERLY FETCH OFF OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...STRONGEST WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE LAKESHORES SOUTH INTO THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR.
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THESE AREAS...INCLUDING THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO...AND
CONFIDENCE IN THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE SNOW FORECAST IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE WINTER STORM WARNING. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT A GLANCE AT THE CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
SYSTEM BEARS A VERY STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO THE MARCH 7 1999 STORM THAT
BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE ROCHESTER AREA ALONG WITH OTHER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...HAVE UPGRADED THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNING TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE EXCEPTIONS AT THIS TIME ARE THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES OF WYOMING/CATTARAUGUS/ALLEGANY AS WELL AS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL NOT BE
EXPOSED TO THE FETCH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AS SUCH WINDS SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A BLIZZARD WARNING. ALONG THIS
SAME VEIN THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES MAY REMAIN JUST
SHY OF BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA OF 35MPH. NONETHELESS...I DO NOT
WANT TO DOWNPLAY THE HAZARDS IN THESE AREAS AS THERE WILL STILL BE
HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL STILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS...EVEN OUTSIDE THE BLIZZARD WARNING AREAS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY UNDER
STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WIND CHILLS FALLING TO NEAR
ZERO. NEEDLESS TO SAY...ALL OF THIS WILL MAKE THIS AFTERNOON/S
RATHER MILD HIGH TEMPS SEEM LIKE A VERY DISTANT MEMORY...AND WILL
MAKE AN ALREADY MISERABLE DAY SEEM EVEN WORSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN INTENSE WINTER STORM WILL TRACK FROM LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC SNOW FROM THIS TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL DROP
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...DOWN TO -20C AT OR JUST BELOW 850
MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE SYNOPTIC LIFT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT THE WORST
CONDITIONS TO BE BETWEEN ROCHESTER AND SYRACUSE ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW PRODUCING NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

EXPECT FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS EXITS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. EVEN AS SYNOPTIC
LIFT WANES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND DEEPENING
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CAUSE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO...AIDED BY SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ACROSS ANY HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OVERALL...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...WITH
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTING AN INTENSE STORM...WITH ONLY MINOR
DISAGREEMENTS IN TRACK AND TIMING. PREFER THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM) FOR QPF/SNOW FORECAST...SINCE THESE ARE MORE
LIKELY TO CAPTURE BOTH LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. EVEN
THESE ARE LIKELY UNDERDONE WITH REGARD TO LAKE EFFECT...MEANWHILE
SNOW RATIOS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FLUFFY AS THE BEST LIFT SETTLES
IN A ZONE FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP RAPIDLY TOO...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MOST PLACES BY THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION
THURSDAY...AND BRIEFLY CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING. DRIER
AIR WILL BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER
TROF...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FORECAST TO
LIFT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE WIND SHIFT.
GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS AND DAYTIME MIXING...EXPECT ONLY MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THEN WARMER AIR WILL BUILD
IN ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BUT POSSIBLY SPARKING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BRINGING MUCH
WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AS A
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING A CLIPPER LOW NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT...DROPPING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION. THIS WILL BRING GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AN INTO SATURDAY.

HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT IS DEBATABLE...WITH THE
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DIFFERING SIGNIFICANTLY ON TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UTILIZING A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE...SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A CHILLY DAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. THE AIR MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF EAST OR
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE 12Z GGEM/ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A COASTAL
LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS
IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...THIS WILL BRING FAIR
BUT CHILLY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THIS
FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...BUT STILL PROBABLY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NY THIS EVENING
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND ONSHORE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HZ ACROSS THE AREA. -RA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. EXPECT THIS -RA TO SPREAD NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND BRIEFLY
CHANGE OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL SNOW...COMMENSURATE WITH A DETERIORATION TO
IFR CONDITIONS...AFTER 06Z. THIS TRANSITION MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING KJHW WHERE WARMER AIR WILL BE
FOUND. AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL INCLUDING KOLE/KELZ MAY
EVEN SEE A PERIOD OF PL/FZRA BEFORE PRECIP TRANSITIONS OVER TO SNOW
AROUND 12Z.

AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A RAPID
DETERIORATION TO IFR/LIFR AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS DURING
THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO
35KT BY WED AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH THE HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ACROSS A WIDE SWATH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 15Z. IN ADDITION
TO THE LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS...SIGNIFICANT BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW
MAY FURTHER DELAY GROUND OPERATIONS AT AREA TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LIFR/IFR IN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SNOW IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH THE SNOW LINGERING LONGEST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR...WITH IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT AND NEW
JERSEY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING NORTHERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY GALES TO LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH WINDS THEN DIMINISHING LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011-019-085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ006>008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ020-021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ012.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042-
         062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/WOOD
NEAR TERM...JJR/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...JJR