Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 260840
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
340 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow east of the lakes will end today as a weak ridge of
high pressure builds into the area. Mainly dry weather will then
continue through Monday before a warm front brings a few rain
showers on Tuesday. An area of low pressure will then move through
the Great Lakes Wednesday with another period of rain and gusty
winds. Temperatures will warm to well above normal again by
Wednesday before winter cold returns late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar imagery showing disorganized snow showers east of both lakes
early this morning, with a turbulent boundary layer forcing lake
effect to manifest as cellular snow showers as opposed to organized
single bands. Outside of lake effect areas a few flurries and light
snow showers continue, mainly of Lake Huron origins.

Outside of lake effect areas, any flurries or light snow showers
this morning will end by midday as a weak surface ridge extending
north from high pressure over the southeast states builds into the
Lower Great Lakes. Morning clouds should give way to some sunshine
this afternoon as low level moisture diminishes. Temperatures will
be near normal for late February, with mid 30s on the lake plains
and around 30 on the hills.

Off Lake Erie...

Lake effect snow focusing across the higher terrain of the western
Southern Tier and far southern Erie/Wyoming counties will steadily
diminish this morning as inversion heights lower and moisture
decreases over the lake. Expect additional accumulations to be less
than an inch this morning. Lake effect should end by midday as
lowering inversion heights become prohibitive.

Off Lake Ontario...

The wide and disorganized area of snow showers east of the lake
should consolidate into a more organized band briefly this morning
from near Sodus Bay eastward across northern Cayuga County and
southern Oswego County. Snowfall rates may briefly reach an inch per
hour in this band before it quickly weakens again later this
morning. Expect a few inches of accumulation in the more persistent
bands. Lake effect snow will also continue through mid to late
morning along the Lake Ontario shore west of Rochester as well with
an upstream connection to Lake Huron. This may drop another inch or
so of accumulation along and north of Route 104 from Niagara to
western Monroe counties.

By this afternoon the activity west of Rochester will weaken and
move back north out over the lake. The band of snow southeast of the
lake will quickly weaken and move north through Oswego County,
ending altogether by late afternoon as inversion heights quickly
lower.

Tonight a weak warm front will move from southwest to northeast
across the area. Sparse low level moisture should keep most of the
area dry, with the warm front producing a brief period of mid level
cloud cover. Skies will then partially clear overnight in the wake
of the warm front, with the exception of the eastern Lake Ontario
region where more cloud cover will remain. Lows will occur early
this evening, with lower 30s on the lake plains and mid 20s across
interior areas. Temperatures will then begin to warm overnight under
weak warm advection and increasing winds.

It will become quite windy overnight as a 50+ knot low level jet
crosses the area. Expect gusts to reach 40-45 mph northeast of Lakes
Erie and Ontario with channeling down the lakes, and 30-35 mph
farther inland. Winds aloft could support advisory criteria wind
gusts northeast of the lakes, but weak warm advection and poor low
level lapse rates will likely inhibit full mixing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday and Monday night will feature mainly tranquil weather and
will mark the beginning of a warming trend through mid-week. On
Monday morning, a shortwave exiting into Quebec will push a very
weak cold front through the North Country. Moisture and forcing will
be very limited, but with some orographic lift, have included a low
chance PoP over the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks. Otherwise, a
secondary weak shortwave passing to our south later in the day
Monday may bring a few isolated showers to the southern Tier.
Otherwise, expect a mainly dry day with some cloud cover and
temperatures recovering into the low to mid 40s across the region
with the help of weak warm air advection.

The moderating trend will continue Tuesday into Wednesday, but this
will also bring rain and a chance of thunderstorms back to the
region for mid-week. Broad troughing carving out across the western
CONUS will help build warmth across the eastern CONUS and sharpening
the temperature gradient along a line from the central plains to the
Great Lakes. A surface low will develop and track just west of the
forecast area, strengthening with time as it tracks into southern
Quebec / northern New England by Thursday morning. Warm advection,
along with a shortwave along the frontal boundary ahead of the main
low, will bring some shower chances to the region as early as
Tuesday, with a slight chance of some thunder. Temperatures will
also rise back into the 50s across western NY and the upper 40s
across the North Country. Continued warm advection Tuesday night
with the surface low deepening just to our west should place us in
the warm sector Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Thus have
temperatures maintaining or even warming some overnight into
Wednesday. Temperatures could top out in the low 60s for some on
Wednesday. However, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase
across the region as well as the cold front will cross the area from
west to east Wednesday into Wednesday night. The strongly forced low
cape / high shear environment could even produce some stronger
thunderstorms with gusty winds. There remain some differences
between the GFS/EC with regard to surface low strength/track, but
there remains some potential a change over to snow from west to east
Wednesday night before precipitation ends. Also depending on the
track/strength of the low, strong winds are possible in the wake of
the cold frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Winter conditions will return for the end of week into the weekend
as a deep progressive trough brings a surge of colder air across the
northeast CONUS. 850 mb temperatures will fall into the negative
teens celsius later Thursday and Friday, which will keep daytime
highs below freezing in many locations Thursday into Saturday.
Nighttime lows will fall into the 20s, and even teens to single
digits by Friday night as 850 mb temps could fall to -20C or colder.
Lake effect snow chances will also increase with this colder air
spilling across the largely ice-free lower Great Lakes. The best
chance for accumulating lake effect snows appears to come Thursday
night into Friday for favored west-northwest flow locations.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will continue east of the lakes this
morning. Off Lake Erie, the snow showers will steadily weaken with
mainly MVFR conditions improving to VFR by midday as lake effect
snow showers end. Off Lake Ontario, a more organized band at the
southeast corner of the lake will bring local IFR through midday
near KFZY before weakening and ending this afternoon. Snow showers
will also bring local IFR along the south shore of Lake Ontario this
morning mainly west and north of KROC.

VFR will then prevail later this afternoon and tonight. A weak warm
front will cross the area from west to east tonight with a period of
mid level clouds. Winds will remain on the stronger side, with gusts
to around 25 knots today. Winds will increase again tonight after a
brief lull early this evening, with gusts to 35 knots northeast of
the lakes overnight.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR, possible MVFR with chance of -SHRA/-SHSN east
of Lake Ontario.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with periods of rain.
Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the
southeast states and low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will
maintain moderate to strong winds on the Lower Great Lakes through
Monday morning with higher end Small Craft Advisory conditions.
Winds will diminish Monday afternoon as a ridge of high pressure
briefly builds into the Lower Great Lakes.

Stronger winds will return Wednesday night and Thursday in the wake
of a deepening storm over Quebec.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Multiple flood warnings remain in effect for the Eastern Lake
Ontario region for the Black River and lower reaches of the
Moose River from a combination of rapid snowmelt and heavy
rainfall from Saturday. The Black River at Boonville and Moose
River at McKeever will continue to rise today and crest this
evening in minor flood before falling on Monday. The lower
reaches of the Black River at Watertown and in northern Lewis
County responds much more slowly. The river will continue to
rise through at least Tuesday reaching at least minor flood
stage, with moderate flood stage a possibility. The river will
not likely drop below flood stage until late week.

Elsewhere across the eastern Lake Ontario region, a flood watch
remains in effect today. Other smaller streams and rivers which
drain the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks will continue to run
high today and may result in minor flooding.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for LOZ043>045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK


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