Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 130530
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1230 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.
BITTER COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A
NOTICEABLE WIND TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
THROUGH AT LEST SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS WILL ALSO
GENERATE LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...ALTHOUGH FRESH
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SETTLING SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS OF
06Z. FRIGID POLAR AIR IN ITS WAKE WILL ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES TO
TUMBLE TO BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK...WHILE INSTABILITY
FROM THE BITTER COLD AIR OVER THE WIDE OPEN LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SOME LAKE SNOWS.

THE LAKE SNOWS WERE CONCENTRATED NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIRECT THE LAKE SNOWS
INTO THE TYPICAL LAKE SNOWBELTS. INCREASED SHEAR AND A SHORTER FETCH
WILL MAKE THIS ACTIVITY MORE MULTI-BAND IN NATURE...AND AS THE MID
LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IS STRIPPED AWAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
INTENSITY OF SAID LAKE BANDS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. DESPITE THIS...
SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH POWDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO (KROC TO OSWEGO
CO). WILL THUS LEAVE THE CURRENT LAKE SNOW WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY UNIMPRESSIVE LAKE SNOWS ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FROM EASTERN MONROE COUNTY TO
OSWEGO COUNTY AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE TO SEE IF CURRENT LAKE
EFFECT `FLAGS` HAVE TO BE EXTENDED.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR WILL
RUSH IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON
AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE WARNING WORTHY WIND CHILLS...
WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW BY THE
END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT -27C OVER
BUFFALO AND AROUND -35C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHEN LOOKING AT
THIS FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STAND POINT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED BEFORE
WITHIN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS PERIOD. SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR 14/00Z SHOWS THAT -27C WILL BE NEARLY 5C
COLDER THAN THE DAILY MIN GOING BACK TO 1948. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.
VENTURING OUT IN THESE CONDITIONS IN NOT RECOMMENDED BUT IF YOU
NEED TO THEN LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED AS FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES OR LESS AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD LOWS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST WHILE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ZERO BUT NOT WITHIN THE RANGE OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC BASED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AS MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO OUR EAST THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES NEAR THE
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FINALLY RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WILL HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MIDDAY WHERE ANY MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
STORM TRACK. TRAILING THIS SYSTEM A WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES FOR MIDWEEK. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-
THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS
POSSIBLE WITH A SNOW TO RAIN CHANGEOVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...A BITTER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN SNOW FOR SITES SUCH AS KDKK...
KJHW AND KELZ AND ALSO IN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM KROC TO KSYR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE
SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE POINT
TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FROM
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY
FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST OF
STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ006-012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ003>005.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7
         AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS


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