Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 291812
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
212 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN DRY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN TONIGHT RESULTING IN A DRY START
TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A UPPER-LEVEL WAVE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE DPVA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL ORGANIZE A BATCH OF
SHOWERS THAT WILL TRANSLATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY... MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH... WITH A DRY
NORTHEAST WIND AND DEW POINTS IN THE L30S/U20S WILL KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD ERODED ON THE NORTH SIDE. THUS LOCATIONS ALONG
THE THRUWAY... FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER TO SYRACUSE MAY ONLY SEE
SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS... OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE MAINLY VIRGA FOR THESE REGIONS. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL PICK A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF PRECIPITATION IN A FEW
HOURS BETWEEN 19 AND 23Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

A DRY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ARE IN STORE BEHIND THE WAVE PASSAGE AS
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH AT
THE SURFACE KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE. CLEARING CLOUD COVER...
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH/EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS... IN THE 30S TO LOW 30S IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY... WHICH WILL SEE THE MOST CLEARING.

ON SATURDAY... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY AS A WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... HOWEVER THE DRY FEED OF AIR
FROM THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL HELP TO ERODE AN INITIAL
SHOWERS THAT APPROACH THE REGION. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY... WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND VIRGA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY TOWARD
SOUTHWEST NY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL... WITH HIGHS
IN THE U50S TO L60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A LIKELY PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE SHOWERS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OVER A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AS A SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE MIDWEST STATES TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. NAEFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE PWAT PLUME WILL BE NEAR +2SD
ABOVE NORMAL SO OFFICIAL QPF CALLS FOR 0.25-0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
FOR WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY RUNNING CLOSER TO THE
0.25 INCH LEVEL. THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR MAXIMUM POTENTIAL SUNDAY. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S THEN ONLY SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE SOUTH THEN EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA SO EXPECT SUNDAY`S SHOWERS TO BE WARM ADVECTIVE
AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH ANY SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT BEING FROM WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO SOUTH INTO WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY...MODELS SHOW THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH
SENT THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...WILL
CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FORCING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS TO
START THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES JUST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL RUN NEAR
SEASONABLE LEVELS. ANOTHER MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH WEAK RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS IS FORECAST TO NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY BRINGING A SHORT RETURN OF DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER.

A BROAD AMPLIFIED TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST BY 00Z MODELS TO DIG SOUTH
OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ECMWF EVEN CUTS THE LOW OFF OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION IN RESPONSE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS MID TO LATE
WEEK AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PIVOT AROUND THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THERE WILL BE SOME DRY TIME DURING THIS PERIOD IN BETWEEN
SHORTWAVE PASSAGES SO DO NOT EXPECT A COMPLETE WASHOUT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
THE CIRCULATION OF COOLER AIR WITHIN THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH. LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING EACH NIGHT WITH NO THREAT
FOR FROST/FREEZE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD... WITH MVFR/IFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...
INCLUDING KJHW.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
AFTERNOON... BRINGING VERY LOW END MVFR TO NEAR IFR CIGS AT KJHW.
THE PRECIPITATION MAY ACTUALLY HELP CIGS MAINTAIN JUST ON THE MVFR
SIDE... HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS THERE. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AT KBUF/KIAG/KROC LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BUT WILL STAY VFR... WITH CIGS GENERALLY AROUND
3.5KFT. KART WILL SEE SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS... WITH CIGS OVER
10KFT.

TONIGHT... EXPECT VFR CIGS AT KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART WILL SCATTER OUT
AND BECOME INCREASINGLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT... ESPECIALLY AT KART. KJHW
WILL ACTUALLY SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AFTER A
FRESH RAIN... AND A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOCKED IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST... AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM CANADA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST ON THE LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
MIDWEST TOWARD THE LAKES SUNDAY... BRINGING A RETURN TO THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 4 FT ON THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH



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