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000
FXUS61 KBUF 090438
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1138 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN SUNDAY BEFORE MODERATING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SNOW MID-WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS LATE EVENING A COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH A
SOMEWHAT COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT
AND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW
CLOUDS...AND LIGHT SHOWERS OF SNOW. BEST CHANCES OF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SKI COUNTY; AND ALSO THE MONROE
TO CAYUGA COUNTY CORRIDOR...WHERE LOCALLY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
MAY BRING A FRESH HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ANY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR BUILDS IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND PROBABLY IN MANY AREAS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE WIDELY...WITH
CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ALLOWING FOR SINGLE DIGITS...AND
CLOUDS SE OF LAKE ONTARIO KEEPING OVERNIGHT TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 20S. FARTHER WESTWARD OVER FAR WNY TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS
WHERE SOME LATE CLEARING WILL BE FOUND.

ON SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO OUR REGION. THE DAY WILL START OFF WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL
CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF
PERHAPS SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...PRECIPITATION WITH THE WARM FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW.

THE FIRST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BRING CHANCES OF
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. MORE LIKELY POPS ARE FOCUSED EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE ADDITIONAL UPSLOPING ON THE TUG MAY ALLOW A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. ON MONDAY A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND COMPACT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS EARLY WILL MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS AND WEST OF THE FINGER LAKES AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE
TEMPS CLIMB TO 40 TO 45 DEGREES. THIS CHANGEOVER MAY NOT OCCUR
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE COOLER TEMPS WILL BE FOUND. THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING THROUGH THE 30S AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING BACK
TO SNOW SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN JUST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION IN THE FAVORED REGION OF OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE FAR WEST AND A DEEPENING MIDCONTINENTAL
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
LOWER 48. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE NO EXCEPTION AS ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING WEST COAST RIDGE WILL DIVE OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE A SIGNIFICANT
LATE WINTER STORM WILL DEVELOP.

A SURFACE LOW FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL CROSS THE
PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND MERGE/PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
BETWEEN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE IS NOW A MORE
NORTHWARD POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE
NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS LOW PLACING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN TO CENTRAL NY WED MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GFS
ARE NOW PRESENTING CATEGORICAL POPS WITH QPF ON THE ORDER OF A HALF
INCH OR MORE...YIELDING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER A 12 TO 18 HOUR
PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME 3 TO 6 HOUR DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND THE CORE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT THAT
DISCREPANCY WILL RESOLVE ITSELF IN THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC STORM AND WILL
CREST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE FOUND
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AS DRIER AIR BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOWER LAKES REGION. ANY SNOW
SHOWERS THIS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO THE KROC AIRFIELD
WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW PRODUCING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES
AND SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRING SOME BRIEF IFR...BUT OVERALL
THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE MVFR OR GREATER AND THUS WILL NOT CARRY
ANY IFR RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAF FOR KROC.

EXPECT WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY WITH VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS PERSISTING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE IN
THE TAF CYCLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...INCLUDING THE KART AIRFIELD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. IFR ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW LIKELY.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH