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000
FXUS61 KBUF 242119
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
519 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep dry and very warm weather across our
region through the first half of the week. An approaching cold
front may finally bring a chance of showers late Wednesday and
Wednesday night, with much cooler temperatures arriving late this
week in the wake of the cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
During this period...ridging at all levels will remain anchored
firmly overhead. Strong subsidence and plentiful dry air aloft
will maintain clear to mainly clear skies through tonight...with
only a little cirrus then rounding the ridge and pushing into the
area from the west on Monday. About the only real blemish on the
forecast will be the redevelopment of the usual Southern Tier
valley fog later on tonight...along with some patchier/lighter
fog in other rural areas.

With respect to temperatures...850 mb temps between +18C and +20C
will be supportive of highs mostly in the upper 80s across the
lower elevations this afternoon...though local lake breezes will
help to keep the lakeshores a bit cooler. Such highs will be very
close to daily records (88 in Buffalo...90 in Rochester...and 88
in Watertown). With higher dewpoints in place...lows tonight will
be a bit milder than the past few nights and will range from the
upper 50s/lower 60s across the North Country and interior portions
of the Southern Tier to the mid 60s elsewhere. Finally for Monday...
slightly warmer temps aloft should allow for afternoon highs to
mostly range from the mid 80s across the higher terrain to the
upper 80s/around 90 across the lower elevations...with only the
immediate lakeshores again being a little cooler. Our current
record high temps for the 25th were set in 2007 at all three of
our major climate sites and are 87 at Buffalo...92 at Rochester...
and 89 at Watertown.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The region will remain underneath ridging at the surface and aloft
to begin the period. This will maintain the dry weather pattern with
much above normal temperatures. 850 mb temperatures will be around
+18C Tuesday, supporting another day of unseasonably hot
temperatures with most highs generally in the mid to upper 80s, with
a few spots making another run at the 90 degree mark. The warmest
readings are expected across inland areas away from local lake
breeze circulations. It also remain very humid, with dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s. This will make it feel uncomfortably hot,
despite the calender date with Heat Index values pushing into the
90s if not the air temperatures.

Ridging will weaken Wednesday as a trough moves over the upper Great
Lakes by late in the day. Even so, temperatures will remain well
above normal Wednesday with highs in the 80s. This is still about 15
degrees above normal for this time of year.

The latest global/long range models are settling on a Wednesday
night timing for the weak cold front and also depicting a rather
anemic moisture pattern along it, while passing through the eastern
Great Lakes, suggesting only scattered light showers for the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Our stretch of summer-like weather comes to an end on Thursday
behind a cold front. Temperatures are forecast to fall back to more
typical levels for this new Fall season lasting through next
weekend. The front is forecast to be east of western and north-
central NY by Thursday morning. A ridge of high pressure will shift
over our region with any lingering showers east of Lake Ontario
coming to an end leaving dry and much cooler conditons settling in
through the day. 850mb temps will fall back to around +5C to +6C
resulting in high temps in the low to mid 60s Thursday and low temps
in the mid to upper 50s.

A much sharper longwave trough axis and secondary surface cold front
is shown in the models to drop across our region Friday or Friday
night. This will bring a chance of rain showers and another shot of
cold air advection. 850mb temps could drop to or a few degrees below
zero C Friday night or Saturday night with a north to northwesterly
flow over the lakes. Expect this airmass to contribute to some Lake
Enhancement behind the cold front with a chance of showers south of
the lakes Friday night into Saturday. Saturday night into Sunday, a
dry central Canadian sourced airmass is expected to move over the
Great Lakes with dry weather expected on Sunday. Temps Friday and
over the weekend with again top out in the low to mid 60s with
cool overnight lows dipping into the 40s.

Given this pattern, there still remains a chance that some locations
will not receive any measurable rainfall for the remainder of
September. In Buffalo it has been 16 days since there has been
measurable precipitation, and although this may be extended we still
have a long ways to go to reach the record. The longest dry stretch
without measurable precipitation in Buffalo is 30 days set back in
the fall of 1924.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will largely prevail through the period as ridging
at all levels remains parked directly overhead. The only exception
to this will come overnight through mid-Monday morning as LIFR
river valley fog redevelops across the Southern Tier...and
patchier/lighter fog and localized IFR/MVFR conditions form
elsewhere.

Outlook...
Monday night through Tuesday...VFR - except local IFR/MVFR
conditions in Southern Tier valley fog later Monday night and
early Tuesday.
Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers
late Wednesday afternoon...Wednesday night...and again on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes
right through the first half of the week. This will provide a long
stretch of very light winds and flat wave action with ideal boating
conditions, but not much wind for sailing.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK