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000
FXUS61 KBUF 121520
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1120 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING WINTER STORM OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND PUSH EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY
REACHING NEW JERSEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW TO OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS THAT WILL RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STORM...VERY COLD AIR WILL RETURN TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...SIGNIFICANT LATE WINTER STORM TO IMPACT OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...

AS OF 15Z...LITTLE CHANGE WAS NECESSARY TO THE GOING FORECAST AS THE
STRONG LATE SEASON WINTER STORM APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING PRETTY MUCH
AS EXPECTED. AREA RADARS AND SURFACE OBS BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS NOW EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW...WITH WINDS ALSO INCREASING AS EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE LAKESHORES AND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WHERE SOME GUSTS TO
35-40 KTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION ONGOING NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER...THIS SHOULD
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY MIDDAY/VERY EARLY AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

IN TERMS OF HEADLINE CHANGES...WE HAVE ELECTED TO ADD CATTARAUGUS...
ALLEGANY...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING BLIZZARD WARNINGS...
AS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THESE THREE COUNTIES SHOULD ALSO SEE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...THESE
REMAIN AS THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY. PORTIONS OF THE PREVIOUS NEAR TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOW BELOW...

AS THE STRENGTHENING WINTER STORM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH...VERY
IMPRESSIVE ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH A
STRONG SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECEDING THE LOW CENTER FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY AN EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE LOW-MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
ZONE...WITH BOTH OF THESE OVERLAID BY A PRONOUNCED COUPLED UPPER
LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND ATTENDANT ZONE OF STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHIC
AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALSO COMING INTO PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON...
THIS WILL ADD UP TO A WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL...WITH THE WORST OF
THE SNOW GENERALLY COMING BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 9 INCHES FOR
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH THE LOWER ACCUMS NEAR
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALONG THE NY/PA LINE...AND THE HIGHEST
OVERALL AMOUNTS COMING IN AREAS OF FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE
ENHANCEMENT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK.

THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE WINDS LIKELY PEAKING DURING THE TIME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FETCH OFF OF LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...THE STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE
LAKESHORES SOUTH INTO THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR. WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS...
INCLUDING THE BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER METRO.

IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM BEARS A VERY STRONG RESEMBLANCE
TO THE MARCH 7 1999 STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE
ROCHESTER AREA ALONG WITH OTHER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS
STATED...WHILE THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE PATTERN OF
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE STATE IS SIMILAR TO THE 1999 CASE...THE
COMBINATION OF MUCH DEEPER AND STRONGER SURFACE LOW...AND A NEARLY
PERFECT UPPER JET STREAK PATTERN OF LEFT EXIT AND RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION ENHANCING DEEP LAYER LIFT IMPLY A MORE POTENT STORM OVER A
WIDER AREA THAN AS WAS THE CASE IN 1999.

MOST COUNTIES IN OUR CWA ARE NOW UNDER BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WHILE THE
FORECAST CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES NOT UNDER THE
BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE JUST SHORT OF THE CRITERIA FOR BLIZZARD
WARNING...TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL STILL BE QUITE
TREACHEROUS AND DIFFICULT...SO AFTERNOON TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD BE
DELAYED OR RECONSIDERED.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY UNDER
STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WIND CHILLS FALLING TO NEAR
ZERO. EVEN AS THE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...COLD NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FROM
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE INLAND TO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...WITH
NEAR ZERO OR BELOW ZERO READINGS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY MORNING THE LAST OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF ENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AT 12Z
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS STILL SHOW A WEAKENING COMMA HEAD
ACROSS NORTHERN NY...WITH THE WESTERN EDGE STILL CLIPPING THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THIS MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER INCH OR TWO IN THE MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF VERY
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THE MOST CONCENTRATED SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING
WHEN SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE IS STILL DECENT. BY AFTERNOON THE
COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY...AND THE STRONG MID MARCH SUN ANGLE WILL
LIKELY BREAK APART THE WEAK MULTIPLE BANDS INTO CELLULAR SNOW
SHOWERS. EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCAL 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE AN EXTREMELY COLD DAY BY MID MARCH STANDARDS...
WITH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID TEENS WHILE
SOME OF THE HILLTOPS STRUGGLE TO 10F. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LIKE MID-WINTER. IN FACT...DURING THE MORNING WIND
CHILLS MAY RUN 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH
OF BUFFALO...WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ADDED. SOME WIND
CHILLS MAY ALSO DROP TO -20 OR A FEW DEGREES COLDER ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF LEWIS COUNTY SO A WIND CHILL HAS BEEN ADDED THERE
AS WELL.

THURSDAY NIGHT SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FROM
JUST EAST OF ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY...LIFTING FARTHER NORTH AND
EAST TOWARDS THE EAST END OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW BACKS. A NARROW RIDGE WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING
AND ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN MANY AREAS...AND BELOW ZERO
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LATE AS WARM ADVECTION
BEGINS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT.

ON FRIDAY A WARM FRONT WILL SURGE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH A PERIOD
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THE COLD OF
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RAPID TURNAROUND WITH HIGHS INTO
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NY AND UPPER 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

FRIDAY NIGHT SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION BEGINS FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT...BUT ONLY ENOUGH TO DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT IS DEBATABLE...WITH THE
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DIFFERING SIGNIFICANTLY ON TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. UTILIZING A CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE...SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A CHILLY DAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S. THE AIR MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF EAST OR
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE 12Z GGEM/ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A COASTAL
LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS
IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...THIS WILL BRING FAIR
BUT CHILLY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THIS
FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...BUT STILL PROBABLY A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN INTENSIFYING WINTER STORM WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE MASON-DIXON
LINE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD VLIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
DOMINANT THROUGH THE EVENING AS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AFFECT MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK. IN ADDITION TO THE VLIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL LIKELY FURTHER DELAY
GROUND OPERATIONS AT AREA TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A WEST TO EAST
LESSENING OF THE HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AFTER 00Z...WITH THIS
DIMINISHING TREND SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR...WITH IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN AND PUSH EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY REACHING
NEW JERSEY BY THIS EVENING. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW
AND NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY GALES TO LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH WINDS THEN DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY IN ITS WAKE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ008-
     012-019>021-085.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ001-002-
     010>012-019>021-085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ006.
     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-
     014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043>045-
         063>065.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/WCH
NEAR TERM...JJR/WCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/WCH
MARINE...JJR/WCH