Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 281918
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
318 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO
ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE SUMMER LIKE WARMTH
RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER LAKES
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TO THE COAST. THIS
COOL UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WEST OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
HOWEVER EXPECT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF THROUGHOUT
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURE WISE WE LOOK TO SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
WARM TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO A SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE EASTERN
CONUS... WHILE A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND AND CONTINUES
TO DECAY. AS THIS LATTER FEATURE MEANDERS ITS WAY ACROSS OUR
REGION...AN ATTENDANT SWATH OF BROAD/DIFFUSE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AS WELL AS THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY.

THE ABOVE STATED...GIVEN THE BROAD/DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE
AVAILABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE...THE COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE...WHICH IN TURN WILL ONLY WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOWER-
END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. JUDGING FROM A CONSENSUS OF THE
LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP
APPEAR TO BE PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING SUNDAY...WHERE THE
DEEPEST OVERALL MOISTURE SHOULD RESIDE DURING THESE PERIODS...AND
WHERE ONE OR MORE ZONES OF SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO
BE PRESENT DURING SUNDAY.

FOLLOWING THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD AS THE DECOMPOSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY SLIDES OUT INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
STATED...HAVE STILL LEFT OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM CONTINUITY
INTACT THROUGH MONDAY GIVEN THE WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW THAT WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT.

OTHERWISE...THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR INTO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S SUNDAY TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY MONDAY...WHILE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB FROM THE MID AND UPPER 50S AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S BY ITS END.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE NATION. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A PERIOD OF LARGELY DRY
WEATHER AND MIDSUMMERLIKE WARMTH FOR OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTLY LOWS MOSTLY RANGING
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DAYTIME CU
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH
CIRRUS WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME OVERCAST ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
CHANCE FOR PCPN HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS / ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN


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