Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 300943
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
443 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH SNOW
LARGELY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL DROP THROUGH OUT THE DAY...WITH SINGLE DIGIT READINGS EXPECTED
FOR ALL SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE FRIGID AIR WILL THEN SUPPORT
DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES FOR PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE
COLD ADVECTION WITHIN THE BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT HAS
ENDED THE EARLIER BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. ONLY SCATTERED
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON KBUF RADAR ACROSS
WESTERN NY WITH A BROADER REGION OF LINGERING SYNOPTIC SNOW SHOWERS
OBSERVED ON KTYX RADAR ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. ONLY
EXPECTING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE MOST PERSISTENT AREAS OF
SNOW TODAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY BRING UPWARDS OF 2-4 INCHES TODAY. HAVE DROPPED THE
WESTERN COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BUT WILL HOLD ONTO
THE EASTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT.

TONIGHT WE TURN EVEN COLDER AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST CIRCULATES ARCTIC AIR SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
ONLY A CHANCE OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKE OTHERWISE SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS...ESP ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO
FALL OVERNIGHT TOWARDS ZERO FOR WESTERN NEW YORK DOWN INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. COMBINING THESE
TEMPS WITH A LIGHT/MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED WINDS WE
HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR
REGION ON SATURDAY. ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD END BY MIDDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND WARMER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION. AFTER A COLD START
TO THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW 20S BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY...BUT STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY DEEPER INTO THE COLD AIRMASS.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING A RE-ENFORCING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION AND STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WHICH MAY ALSO PICK UP SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO
AND THE LIMITED OPEN WATER ON LAKE ERIE...AND ALSO FROM UPSLOPE FLOW
EAST OF THE LAKES. THIS MAY PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION IN SOME SPOTS. THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. A FRESH
BATCH OF COLDER AIR WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS IN MOST
AREAS WITH SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

MEANWHILE A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
ENHANCE A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED ARCTIC BOUNDARY WITH A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS BUT FAST TRACKING SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED THIS LOW...BUT HAS STRUGGLED
MIGHTILY WITH ITS TRACK. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTH FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
FUTURE MODEL SHIFTS. SINCE THIS IS PRIMARILY A QUESTION OF TRACK...A
CONSENSUS SHOULD PROVIDE THE BEST FORECAST...WITH A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND OF THE SREF/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM/NAM FAVORED. THIS MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WOULD BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NIL BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE A NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS NORTHWARD OR A SOUTHWARD SHIFT KEEP
ACCUMULATING SNOWS OUT OF THE CWA.

REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE WHICH WILL PULL ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO THE REGION.
THIS COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGHS
ON MONDAY MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING THE STRONGEST WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS STRONGER
SOLUTION VERIFIES IT WOULD BRIEFLY BRING A PUSH OF MILDER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE BY THURSDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY THURSDAY
AS FLOW APPEARS TO ALIGN BETTER AT THAT TIME THAN EARLIER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN MVFR VIS SLOWLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
DAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS IN PLAY AS WELL
WITH CIGS AVERAGING MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY....AREAS OF MVFR IN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE LATE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ004>008.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH






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