Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 151155
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY BEFORE A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS FROM LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK BEFORE MORE SEASONABLE READINGS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALBEIT ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER THAT BLANKETED THE FORECAST AREA IS FINALLY DIMINISHING
THIS MORNING AS THE COLD POOL AND MOISTURE ALOFT RESPONSIBLE
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE QUICKLY
REPLACED BY INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEARING
DOWN UPON THE REGION. THIS CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
DECENT CAP BETWEEN 850-700MB WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. INSTEAD THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE DRIVEN
BY STRONG PV ADVECTION AS THE CORE OF THE PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT. THE
RESULTING SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY BLOSSOMING ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND +6C...TRANSLATING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S
WITH WARMEST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY
WHERE LIMITED DOWNSLOPING MAY ADD A DEGREE OR TWO...PUSHING READINGS
TOWARDS THE MID-60S. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS BOTTOMING
OUT AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT QUICKLY
SHIFTS EAST TO NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND WITH
DRY AIR HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES FOR SOME SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OUR SOUTH THEN OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW MID-SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

A MOISTURE-STARVED SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY APPROACHING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH A POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE RIPPLING ALONG THE FRONT
KEEPS CONCERN FOR A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY MORNING THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BEFORE
WASHING OUT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAKENING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER
LAKES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH CLEARING AND DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 OR NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S INLAND TO
MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST CONCERNS AND PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

ON FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AS A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW OF MILDER AIR BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CANADA.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OUR
REGION...THE CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL HELP TO
PUMP EVEN WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO FINALLY CLIMB BACK TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CIGS THAT WERE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS
OF CLEARING OUT ACROSS WNY THIS MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING THIS MORNING...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...SPREADING SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 00-03Z ONWARDS. WEST-NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL GENERATE LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS LOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THAT
WILL BRING WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FT TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE WEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL GENERATE 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ON THE EAST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WAVES WILL SUBSIDE BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING ONCE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD






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