Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KBUF 162000
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
400 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES OF TODAY GIVING
WAY TO MILDER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR ERIE PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SPILL OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY BUT ALL IN ALL A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ON TAP.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ANOTHER NIGHT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES
IN STORE FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER THE BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME
MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP HOLD TEMPS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS. THURSDAY WARM
AIR ADVECTS ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO MINUS FIVE TO ZERO SO
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT CHILLY BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE NOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS TO ALL
AREAS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE ON
SATURDAY. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. LATE SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION.
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FALLING APART BY MID
MORNING. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...EXPECT UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN
HYDROLOGY...JJR




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.