Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 270826
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
426 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...USHERING IN A MUCH
COLDER AIR MASS FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS COLD FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TO START THE WEEK...BRINGING A
SLOW WARMING TREND. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BRINGING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CALENDAR MAY SAY ITS SPRING...BUT TODAY WILL TAKE ON A RATHER
WINTERY FEEL. EXPECT TO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING...WITH STEADY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THIS MORNING...AND WILL RECEIVE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM
LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT...AND SHOULD RESULT IN 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES REGION.

A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
MORNING...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...USHERING IN THE MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS. AS THE FRONT CROSSES LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT IT TO PICK UP LAKE
MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A FOCUSED NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOW. THE
BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOST INTENSE PUSHING
ONTO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...IMPACTING ROCHESTER /
NIAGARA FALLS AND BUFFALO BY LATE MORNING. MARGINAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND POWERFUL LATE MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION SHOULD KEEP
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED TO AROUND A INCH ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL LOCATED WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
THE AREA...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FORCING TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED
LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FINALLY CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...THIS WILL BEND THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR AN ADDITIONAL BURST
OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FINALLY DROP BELOW -12C / SUPPORTING ENOUGH OF A LAKE ONTARIO TO 850
MB TEMPERATURE CONTRAST TO KICK OFF THE TRUE LAKE EFFECT. WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 20S OVERNIGHT...AND NO MORE
SUN TO CONTEND WITH...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BECOME MUCH MORE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT. SNOW RATIOS WILL COME UP...AND WILL SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL
2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY LOCATION FOR THESE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS FROM WAYNE COUNTY WEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CLOSEST TO THE LAKE
SHORE...AS WELL AS IN THE HILLS SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL BE A FACTOR. AMOUNTS SHOULD TAPER OFF INTO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER FARTHER FROM THE REACHES OF THE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS WILL STILL BE AROUND 8K FEET TO START THE MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING IN THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. BEFORE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS END...THERE
MAY BE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO ACCUMULATION IN THE MORNING IN
PERSISTENT BANDS FROM WAYNE/ONTARIO COUNTIES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN
RESPONSE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. ALL OF THIS WILL TAPER OFF BY AFTERNOON...
BUT MOIST NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S AT BEST ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER
TEENS TO AROUND 20 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...MORE THAN 20F BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO
THE LOWER LAKES. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS IN THE
COOL/DRY AIRMASS EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS DOWN
WELL INTO THE TEENS ON THE LAKE PLAINS WITH SINGLE NUMBERS IN THE
COLDER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY.

ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...BUT
STILL EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TO FILTER THROUGH. AFTER A
CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH MID 30S NORTH COUNTRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT AT THE SURFACE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPENING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIP FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO WESTERN NY WITH WET
SNOW STILL FAVORED ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH OF PRECIPITATION. LOWS WILL
BE MUCH MILDER...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS WESTERN NY AND UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S FARTHER EAST.

ON MONDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC. WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK TO OUR
NORTH...THIS WILL LEAVE THE MOST ORGANIZED ASCENT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. STILL...EXPECT ENOUGH MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN AND WET SNOW
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NY AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SHOULD PREVENT ANY
ACCUMULATION EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST HILLTOPS...BUT EVEN THERE
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER LAKES.

IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
BY TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ON TUESDAY A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONGER ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
THIS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF WET SNOW OR WET SNOW/RAIN MIX TO THE AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM THINGS ARE LOOKING UP TEMPERATURE WISE.

THE PERSISTENT LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS NOAM WILL BEGIN TO DE-AMPLIFY
WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH LIFTING OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE IS BEAT DOWN BY A STRONGER SYSTEM COMING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL FORCE A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NATION...WITH WARMER AIR SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE UNDER SOME
SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. A STRONGER PUSH OF WARMING IS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AS A NEW SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN...BUT SHOULD ALSO PUMP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...THE WARMTH MAY LAST FOR ONE MORE
DAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT THEN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ALLOW THE TROUGH TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED AGAIN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY THE FIRST WEEKEND IN APRIL. IF THIS
VERIFIES TEMPERATURES WOULD AGAIN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AIR WORKING IN ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY IS ALLOWING FOR A
SCATTERING OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK...PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS AT
MANY LOCATIONS. PATCHES OF LOWER CIGS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE DIFFICULT TO TIME PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY AT KBUF/KART.

BY MID TO LATE MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING A FOCUSED BUT BRIEF BAND SNOWFALL WORKING
ACROSS KROC/KIAG/KBUF BY LATE MORNING...PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES.

BY TONIGHT...SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN
NY AND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND ACROSS THE LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6
FEET ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...MAINLY ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY ICE FREE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER ACROSS TO SODUS
BAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON
SATURDAY...AND WILL ALLOW WAVE ACTION TO DECREASE BELOW 4 FEET
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
         SATURDAY FOR LOZ030-042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH








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