Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 050926
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
426 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A RETURN TO
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE COMING WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE TOWARDS
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS POTENTIALLY CLIMBING ABOVE
AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IS
CONTINUING TO DROP OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WHILE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE TEENS.
READINGS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL BY A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS MORNING AS
ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. INDEED THE
CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL BUDGE LITTLE FROM
THIS MORNING`S READINGS WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID TEENS. THE GUSTY WINDS THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT SHOULD TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. NONETHELESS
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WILL REINFORCE THE BITTERNESS OF
THE COLD TEMPERATURES...PUSHING WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TODAY.

THE BULK OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANIED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
OVERNIGHT HAVE LARGELY EXITED THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 5KFT MAY BRING A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY WHILE ELSEWHERE MORNING CLOUD COVER SHOULD GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING SUNSHINE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
TONIGHT WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND LARGELY CLEAR SKIES
COUPLED WITH THE VERY COLD AND DRY AIR OVERHEAD WILL PROMOTE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH READINGS PLUNGING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO...WITH AREAS NEAR THE LAKES STAYING ABOVE ZERO
WHILE AREAS INLAND WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO. THE LIGHT EVENING
BREEZE SHOULD DIMINISH ALMOST ENTIRELY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WHILE WINDS CHILLS WILL CERTAINLY WILL RUN
CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS...THEY SHOULD STAY JUST A HAIR ABOVE THE
-15 THRESHOLD THANKS TO THE SLACKENING WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA...
BUT THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL STILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN AROUND 6K FEET DURING THE
EVENING...THEN LOWER TO BELOW 5K FEET OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS
CRESTS OVERHEAD. THE RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...SHORT
FETCH...AND DRY AIRMASS WILL GREATLY LIMIT ORGANIZATION AND
INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...BUT MAY NOT PREVENT THEM
ALTOGETHER. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FROM THE
EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY THURSDAY NIGHT. IF
THESE MATERIALIZE ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINOR.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES OUTSIDE OF THE
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WINDS MAY NOT FULLY
DECOUPLE...BUT THE COMBINATION OF LIGHTER WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A
COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE LAKE
PLAINS WILL DROP TO AT LEAST THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AND POSSIBLY JUST
BELOW ZERO...WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
COLDER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT...BUT STILL MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE 10
TO 15 BELOW ZERO RANGE.

ON FRIDAY ANYTHING THAT REMAINS OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT
FLURRIES WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY AFTERNOON IF ANYTHING
IS LEFT IT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA FROM POINT PETRE TO KINGSTON
ONTARIO. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS.

LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
SWING ACROSS QUEBEC...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE OCCLUDED
FRONT/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON SATURDAY. WEAK LARGE
SCALE ASCENT FROM A LEAD SHORTWAVE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. A LITTLE BETTER PERIOD OF ASCENT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY EAST
OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WHERE FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE WILL GIVE AN ADDED
BOOST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AN UPWARD TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF NUMEROUS
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO PUT EMPHASIS ON A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLIPPER LOW FOR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW. THE 12Z ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON
SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY. THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH SOME CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS...AND
SOME CLOSER THE ECMWF. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A SLOW UPWARD TREND WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BRING RISING HEIGHTS AND WARM ADVECTION EAST ACROSS THE NATION
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BOTH MODELS
BRING 850MB TEMPS ABOVE ZERO BY TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MANY AREAS. BOTH DAYS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...WITH A
SECOND NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC LEAVING
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON HOW LONG
THE WARMING TREND WILL LAST. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
WHICH FORCES A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS
WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL...BUT NOT COLD FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY. MARCH AND APRIL IS THE PEAK SEASON CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS...SO SUSPECT A MORE BRIEF WARM-UP IS MORE
LIKELY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS IN -SHSN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IMMEDIATELY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST DUE
TO LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL -SHSN. THE
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THU NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING CLEARING ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A WEAK BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH
IFR/MVFR VSBYS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO
EAST OF THE LAKE FRIDAY AND DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY EAST OF THE LAKES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20KTS BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL KEEP
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN PLACE ON LAKE ONTARIO THIS
MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE LAKES ON
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER THAT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LOZ042-
         043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD







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