Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 011347
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
947 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUGGY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR ONE MORE
DAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LIKELY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER THE HUMIDITY LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AIR TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A FEW
DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSTREAM
VORT MAXES PASS THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IN ADDITION TO THE LIFT ALOFT GENERATED BY
THE EMBEDDED VORT MAXES...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES
RISING TO 300 T0 400 J/KG TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY NOR DECENT LAPSE RATES/COOLING ALOFT TO
PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL FORM LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS BREEZE MEETING THE NEARING COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND OR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER.
ALL ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

AS THIS FRONT PASSES TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT...THOUGH
DEWPOINTS MAY LINGER WITHIN THE MID 50S BEFORE FALLING LATE. SOME
PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HILLS OF SW NYS. A RATHER CLOUDY START TO THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD
WILL HAVE SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR ON A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
REACHES OUR REGION. ANY CLEARING WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO...WITH STRATUS CLOUDS
HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE INLAND HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF NORTH AMERICA...MAINLY PROBLEM-FREE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THIS TIME FRAME WILL OPEN WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC. AS THIS FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DEEPENING DRY AIR AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE ONLY POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION. WHILE H5 TEMPS IN THE MINUS
TEENS C WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
MORE THAN 7 DEG C DURING THE AFTERNOON...FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH DRYING TO ONLY ALLOW FOR SOME ENHANCED MIDDAY/AFTERNOON CU.
WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC POPS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SRN
TIER...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY BEING OVERLY PESSIMISTIC. MEANWHILE...
H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 10C SUPPORTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
70S.

THE CENTER OF THE WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WITHIN A
FRESH DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE A COOL NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO TEMPS UNDER STARLIT SKIES WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER 50S AWAY FROM THE LAKES. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED SRN
TIER VALLEYS AND SITES EAST OF THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY COULD EVEN
BRIEFLY VISIT THE UPPER 40S. THESE READINGS WILL BE SOME 10 DEG F
BELOW TYPICAL EARLY JULY VALUES.

THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER SUN FILLED DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD ADVECT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN TIER TO ENCOURAGE INCREASING CUMULUS CLOUDS FOR
THAT AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. ALL IN ALL THOUGH...A VERY NICE DAY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES TO PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS FEATURE WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INSERT SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AFTER JUST ONE
PESSIMISTIC MODEL RUN. WILL RAISE POPS TO SLGT CHC FOR NOW AND
INCREASE CLOUDS FOR THAT AREA WHILE LEAVING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

FOR SATURDAY...A BROAD BASED TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS HAS BEEN THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A COUPLE SHOWERS...
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
THOUGH WOULD BE A FAR CRY FROM THE WASHOUT THAT WE EXPERIENCED THE
PREVIOUS SATURDAY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY EVENING IN TIME FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS...AS RIDGING OVER
WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN MOVES WILL BUILD IN OUR DIRECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATES ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...ROUGHLY BOUNDED BY KROC KBUF
KJHW AND KELZ...WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING IMPACTING AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK BEHIND THIS INITIAL BATCH OF CONVECTION BEFORE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE...THIS WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. BKN-OVC CIGS BELOW 1K FT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO SCT-BKN 1-3K FT DECKS WITH SOME AFTERNOON
HEATING.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH BETTER DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT MAY EVEN TRIGGER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM FORMING ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY...THIS IN THE
VICINITY OF KIAG AIRFIELD.

AS THIS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL END SHOWER CHANCES AND
ALLOW FOR A DECREASE IN CLOUDS. HOWEVER SOME IFR LOW STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE TO HANG OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 15 KNOTS NE OF
LAKE ERIE BEHIND A LAKE ERIE BREEZE. WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND
RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
A SOUTHWEST WIND BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE WATERS.
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SOME OF THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE TODAY AND PRODUCE WAVES 3 TO
5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE UNUSUAL EARLY SUMMER +PNA PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
IS SIMILAR TO THE PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE OF THE PAST COUPLE
WINTERS. IN FACT...THE CURRENT 6 TO 8 MONTH PATTERN IS PART OF ONE
OF THE STRONGEST +PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST FIVE YEARS. THE CURRENT
LONG TERM PATTERN HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR REGION FOR FIVE OF THE PAST PAST SIX MONTHS...INCLUDING
THE JUST ENDED MONTH OF JUNE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/THOMAS
MARINE...FRANKLIN/THOMAS
CLIMATE...RSH



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