Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 052031
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
431 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SPIRAL FROM THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT TO
NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...WHILE MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INTO
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS TO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO AND EXCEED NORMAL INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW NEARING THE
CAROLINAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY
ADVANCE NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OFF THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
PLAINS.

A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. RADAR SHOWS MOST
OF THE SHOWERS TO OUT OF OUR CWA...WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE THAT
THESE WILL RE-DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE SFC TROUGH WEAKENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY ANY SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TOMORROW AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW ADVANCES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE IT WILL SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE BACK OVER
OUR REGION...THIS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS WITHIN THIS SURGE OF
MOISTURE WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES
REGION TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY
POPS HERE...TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE NW AREAS OF WNY
AND THE SLV. THERE WILL BE LESS INSTABILITY TOMORROW AND WILL NOT
MENTION ANY THUNDER.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WHILE
TOMORROW...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY...A 4 TO 6C 850 HPA TEMPERATURE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S...WITH JUST A FEW LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE UPPER
50S OVER THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATES
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CUT-OFF LOW...WHICH IS FORECAST TO STALL
OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA/MARYLAND. AS THE THE LOW GRADUALLY FILLS
OVERNIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH.

THE CUT-OFF LOW WEAKENS IN PLACE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
SATURDAY...HOWEVER WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW. SO WHILE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE LOOK POSSIBLE EXPECT
MUCH OF THE DAY COULD END UP MOSTLY CLOUDY. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW
STILL IN PLACE AND SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE
IS REALIZED. LAKESHORE AREAS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AS LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS SET UP.

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO OPEN
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LASTEST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT IT WILL
CONSOLIDATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS NEAR HUDSON BAY AS
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW IT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DRIVING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THIS SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT CROSS
THE REGION.

IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOPED
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. IT WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES A
SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY WITH MOST HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 50S. FOR THE MOST PART...THE DAY WILL BE DRY
OUTSIDE OF LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
SOME ISOLATED DIRUNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER QUEBEC WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE
AREA WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE TO
START THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER AS THE MID
LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORES.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION. A MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH A BROAD REGION OF WARM ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
GEM ARE FASTER AND FARTHER EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...BRINGING WARM
FRONTAL SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE GFS IS SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...KEEPING OUR
REGION DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LATEST 12Z GEFS SHOW A VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS WITH SOME MEMBERS FASTER AND SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/GEM
SOLUTION. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID RANGE
CHANCE FROM LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...WITH ONE OR TWO
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RUNNING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR STEADIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AT 20Z...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AND NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOUD COVER IN THE
3-5K FT RANGE IN MOST AREAS INLAND. TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
FOCUSES UPON THE SOUTHEAST AND MID- ATLANTIC COASTLINE WE SHOULD
SEE A REDUCTION IN CLOUDS...WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. IFR/MVFR
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS EAST OF
KROC/KDSV.
MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH SATURDAY A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODEST
WINDS PREDOMINATING...ALONG WITH CORRESPONDINGLY MINIMAL WAVES.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WAVES
ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
YIELD LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS ON LAKE ERIE...SUCH THAT WAVES MAY REMAIN
BELOW SCA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS


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