Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 220218
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1018 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN
FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS PERSISTING...MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT REMAIN. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ALSO STILL FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN
FINGER LAKES. EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO VERY SLOWLY END
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT MAY REMAIN TO OFFSET DIURNAL
COOLING AND SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT ELSEWHERE
EXPECT THE PARTIAL CLEARING WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED TO PERSIST
MOST OF THE TIME.

AS THE SURFACE LOW FALLS APART ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SURFACE
WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION. NAM BUFKIT MODEL POINT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP SURFACE BASED INVERSION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NEAR SATURATION AT
THE SURFACE... INDICATING SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVELS FOR FOG FORMATION.
UPS FOG METHOD IS ALSO QUITE FAVORABLE WITH FORECAST LOWS SEVERAL
DEGREES UNDER THE TXOVER TEMPS.

FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK STATE...BUT MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 80. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
A CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
FOG FORMS. EXPECT ABOUT THE SAME AGAIN FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO TILT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNDAY BEING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.

THE ADVECTION OF RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST MARITIME AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REGION WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE WHILE LOW TO MID 60S WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN FOR THE MOST PART DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT (OUTSIDE OF THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH)THAT BY MID-WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-WEST WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE WISE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A
FEW OF THESE MAY PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE
LIGHTNING IS NOW GONE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTING TO STABILIZE.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NY SHOULD WEAKEN BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
PARTIAL CLEARING...HIGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...AND SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS AND UPS FOG
METHOD ARE BOTH QUITE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE BROUGHT IN IFR FOG TO KIAG/KROC/KJHW WHERE FOG
IS MOST FAVORED UNDER THIS TYPE OF SETUP. LEFT IT OUT OF KBUF FOR
NOW GIVEN THE LACK OF RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND A LOWER TXOVER
NUMBER. ALSO LEFT IT OUT OF KART WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER THERE.

ON FRIDAY MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z. IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STILL DEEP ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS BEFORE MIXING OUT TO VFR BY MIDDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW YORK
STATE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JM
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JM




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