Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 190110
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
910 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE AIR MAY
BECOME COLD ENOUGH AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A POTENT
UPPER LOW DIVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE REGION THIS EVENING. A FEW LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS ACROSS THE INLAND HILLTOPS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...OTHERWISE JUST CLOUDY AND BREEZY.

VERY DRY AIRMASS THEN OVERSPREADS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO DIMINISH THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AND MAY WIND UP
TRANSITIONING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO DRIZZLE AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE GETS WIPED OUT. ANOTHER BIG QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
HOW MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER DO WE LOSE. PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS
THAT THE COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES...MOISTURE OFF THE LAKES AND
STRENGTHENING INVERSION AROUND 900 MB...WILL HOLD LOW CLOUD COVER IN
TOUGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND LAKE
MODIFIED AIR WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. SOME OF
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD GET CLOSE AND MAYBE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A BIT OF  LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN.

SUNDAY...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
BREAKING UP FOR AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A RATHER CHILLY DAY WITH MOST HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 40S
WITH EVEN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE UPPER
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE
FROM WESTERN NEW YORK TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND THE NEW JERSEY
COASTLINE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT BROAD SURFACE LOW.

WHILE THE ENSUING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...IT SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY
ENOUGH TO SPREAD INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT ANY
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS IN MOST AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS
STILL ONGOING. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE FROM THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION EASTWARD TO OSWEGO COUNTY...WHERE CLOUDS
WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THIS STATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FROST/FREEZE EVEN IN THIS LATTER AREA STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW TO
BE WORTH A MENTION IN THE FORECAST/HWO AT THE PRESENT TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON SUCH FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND
OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
DIG FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUE TO
HELP CARVE OUT A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST...WITH ITS ATTENDANT LOW SLOWLY WEAKENING AND SLIDING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA. DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT ON THE FRONT FLANKS OF THESE FEATURES SHOULD
RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT BEING FORECAST BY AN
INCREASING SUITE OF ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL PACKAGES...HAVE RAISED
LIKELY POPS TO CAT FOR BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SHOWERS
SHOULD REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS A STEADIER RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE-WISE... MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ON MONDAY...WITH
MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS THEN DROPPING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

FINALLY DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A DEEP
CLOSED LOW CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHILE
ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH DURING
TUESDAY...THEN REDEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUING TO CIRCULATE WESTWARD
INTO OUR AREA AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM...TUESDAY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FEATURE PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME
LOWERING IN RAIN CHANCES THEN FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE
OVERALL PATTERN OF A SURFACE LOW GOING BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY
UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...AS THE MAIN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW LINGERING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHILE ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE A FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LINGERING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP COMING ACROSS OUR NORTH COUNTRY
ZONES... WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
WITH THE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THE TYPICAL RUN-TO-RUN AND
MODEL-TO-MODEL VARIATIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
LOW AND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF ITS PRECIP...FOR NOW HAVE FELT IT BEST
TO CONTINUE TO STICK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND OUR EXISTING
CONTINUITY...WHICH FEATURES A RANGE OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/PRECIP SHOULD LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS REMAINING CONFINED
TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTS OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES... AND
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEST-EAST REDUCTION
IN PRECIP CHANCES...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL YET MOIST AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH IFR CIGS ACROSS HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...TO THE EAST OF KJHW.

LATER TONIGHT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...CAUSING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF TO AREAS
OF DRIZZLE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FROM 06Z ONWARDS. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A FALLING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH IFR LIKELY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

CEILINGS WILL LIFT IN THE MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...
LINGERING LONGER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY EAST OF THE
LAKES.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR/RSH
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA






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