Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 290825
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
425 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS BACK IN TONIGHT RESULTING IN A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL RUN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A COOL AND SHOWERY CONCLUSION TO THE WEEK FOR MANY AREAS
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN WILL DIVE ACROSS
LOWER MI AND WESTERN NY TODAY. PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE PRE-EXISTING SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN PA/NY AND
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOCATED
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY AS THE MAIN FOCUS OF PVA
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP DRIER AND LAKE-STABILIZED AIR IN
PLACE NORTH OF THE THRUWAY...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY. MEANWHILE
THE NORTH COUNTRY, WHICH WILL BE DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES TI REMAIN HIGH AND DRY TODAY WITH
PERIODS OF SUN BETWEEN HIGH CLOUDS HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WILL NOT BE SO PLEASANT AS ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES DEPRESSED SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AS IT CROSSES WESTERN
NY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING A RAPID EXIT THIS EVENING, TAKING
WITH IT ALL LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH, YIELDING A QUIET AND DRY NIGHT WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S, AND SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS NEAR 40 ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THINGS WILL DRY OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THIS
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD
OF RAIN WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW LEVEL JET AND AXIS OF STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
POSITIONED WELL WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOW/MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION BEGINNING TO RAMP UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY DUE TO
THIS STRONG ADVECTIVE FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT THUNDER MENTION
WITH FAIRLY DEEP/STABLE LAYER IN PLACE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS
FROM QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE WAVE WHICH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS WITH MORE
SUNSHINE HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...PERHAPS MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 50S...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
STAYING IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES PIVOT
AROUND THE TROUGH IN THE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
THEN LOOK TO WARM BACK TOWARDS NORMAL MID WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO ONLY SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S EACH NIGHT WITH NO THREAT FOR
FROST/FREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT HAS LOWERED CIGS TO MVFR. EXPECT CURRENT CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EAST FROM MICHIGAN WILL BRING
RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM AROUND 18Z ONWARDS AND PRIMARILY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KBUF-KSYR LINE WITH JUST A CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER
OR TWO MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS KIAG/KROC. OTHERWISE, EVEN WITH THE
SHOWERS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME IFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN NEAR THE PA BORDER.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN
FROM WISCONSIN TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO 15KTS IN
PLACE ON THE LAKES INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO WHILE OFFSHORE COMPONENT TO FLOW
WILL KEEP WAVES CONSIDERABLY LOWER ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST, TAKING THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH IT, AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN FROM CANADA. THE RESULTING IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ON THE LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP OUT OF THE MIDWEST BRINGS A RETURN TO
THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 4 FT ON THE EASTERN
END OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...CHURCH/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



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