Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 140848
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
348 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Light lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes will end
this morning as high pressure builds into the Lower Great
Lakes. A clipper system will then bring some light snow to the
region late Monday through Tuesday night. Temperatures will
remain well below normal through Monday before slowly returning
to near average late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Apparent temperatures still show readings in the Advisory
range, so will continue with the Wind chill flags as already
issued. North-northwest flow lake effect snow showers will
continue this morning, but should end as flurries by mid day,
with diminishing flow, as high pressure migrates overhead.

Following the end of the lake effect snow showers and flurries,
expect some sunshine, but temperatures still remaining cold
with highs only in the teens with single digits across the North
Country.

Tonight will start out mainly clear with our fresh snow cover
setting up a good radiational cold night. Overnight lows will dip
down to between the low single digits above zero to negative single
digits in the interior western Southern Tier and North Country.
Winds will be fairly light in these cooler locations, but could
be just high enough for another round of advisory level wind
chills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A closed upper level low across MN/WI will drive sfc low pressure
into the southern Great Lakes Monday. Warm air advection ahead of
this system will cause clouds to increase across western/central NY.
Light snow will move into Western NY ahead of an advancing cold
front late Monday afternoon/early evening. Light accumulating snow
is expected with the potential of it beginning during the Monday
evening commute for the Buffalo metro. Southerly winds will allow
temps to climb into the low 20s.

Snow will spread eastward Monday night as the center of the sfc low
moves near the City of Buffalo and the cold front races eastward.
The snow will likely end by Tuesday morning with widespread 2-4
inches possible. The sfc low will move across Lake Ontario Tuesday
before transitioning to the east coast by Tuesday night. SW-W winds
will likely produce some lingering snow showers behind the sfc low
and cold front into Tuesday night. Although post-frontal,
temperatures will be slightly warmer Tuesday with high temperatures
in the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Westerly flow increases across the area as low pressure deepens off
the southern New England coast Wednesday. Lake effect bands will
likely form off Lakes Erie and Ontario and accumulating snow is
possible across the Southern Tier and Oswego County/Tug Hill Plateau
region through Wednesday night. Snow will quickly diminish into
Thursday as rising heights occur behind a departing upper level
trough. Flow becomes zonal by Friday and temperatures begin to climb
into the weekend.

In terms of precipitation...there are no major events expected
during this four day stretch. There may be some nuisance lake snow
showers early on that could be followed by some light snow as a
result of the onset of the aforementioned warming...but nothing that
should warrant any headlines.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will continue southeast of the lakes early
this morning with areas of IFR VSBY and MVFR CIGS. KROC will be
impacted the most by this activity, with KJHW also possibly being
affected at times, albeit to a lesser extent. KBUF and KIAG will lie
near the western edge of the lake effect snow showers and thus will
be mainly VFR, though some fluctuations to MVFR will still be
possible at times. Meanwhile KART will remain VFR under clear skies
with northwest winds keeping lake effect snow showers away from that
airfield.

Any remaining lake effect snow showers will end Sunday morning as
high pressure builds over the area, leaving behind VFR conditions to
prevail for the rest of the day.

Outlook...
Monday thru Tuesday Night...Light snow likely with areas of IFR.
Wednesday and Thursday...A chance of snow showers with spotty MVFR
to IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions along the south shore of Lake
Ontario will continue to subside as high pressure builds into
the Lower Great Lakes. Winds will remain relatively light
through Monday, then will increase again by Tuesday as a clipper
system crosses the region.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ007-
     008-012-020-021.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK/RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/JJR/TMA



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