Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
FXUS61 KBUF 230600
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
200 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017
High pressure stretched across the forecast area will produce a fine
Spring day to end the weekend as temperatures will climb into the
60s away from the lakes. While a weak cool front will settle south
and wash out across our area tonight...the fair weather will
continue into the start of the new work week. Canadian high pressure
will nose southeast across the Lower Great Lakes...and this will
produce another sun filled day on Monday. Some unsettled weather
will return later Monday night and Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Clear starlit skies are found across all of western and north
central New York early this morning...as our region is falling under
the control of high pressure that is stretching to the east across
all of the Great Lakes. It will be on the chilly side of normal
though. The mercury will settle to at least the mid 30s across the
region by daybreak...with temperatures forecast to be in the low 30s
across a large portion of the Southern Tier as well as the North
Country. This will allow for some patchy frost...although this
should not be an issue as the growing season is still a couple weeks
We can then look forward to a fine day to end the weekend...as a
zonal flow aloft will combine with surface high pressure and a dry
airmass to guarantee sun filled skies throughout Sunday. It will
also be warmer...as H85 temperatures in the vcnty of 6 C Sunday
afternoon will support max temps in the 60s away from the cool
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday night through Monday night should remain dry, with the
forecast region centered between a cold front stalled across
southern Canada, and a SE storm system. Temperatures Sunday night
will dip into the lower 40s and upper 30s, while Monday night will
be a few degrees warmer as clouds begin to increase across the
region from the south. Highs Monday will be seasonable, in the 60s
across the region. The one cool spot will be along the southern Lake
Ontario shoreline where a northeast flow will bring cooler lake air
temperatures inland, keeping communities along the shoreline in the
low to mid 50s.
Tuesday and Tuesday night will bring the next chance for rain
showers. The southeast area of low pressure, with support from an
upper level closed low, will pull both Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico
moisture northward. As the surface low tracks northeastward along
the SE Atlantic coastline, outer bands of rain showers will pass
across the Eastern Great Lakes region early morning hours of Tuesday
and into the evening hours. Highest chances for showers will be
across the interior So. Tier, Finger Lakes region, and then the
southern Tug Hill. Total rainfall with this event will generally be
a third of an inch or less, with little to no rain falling across NW
portions of the CWA. Southeast winds, and temperatures of +6 to +9C
at 850 hPa will yield highs in the upper 60s across the Niagara
Frontier, and along the downslope Lake Erie shoreline, while across
the interior So. Tier/Finger Lakes and southern Tug Hill region,
thicker clouds and showers will hold temperatures to the upper 50s
to lower 60s. Lows Tuesday night will drop back into the upper 40s
to lower 50s, with some patches of fog possible where rain fell.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Wednesday low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast will gradually
weaken while a mid-level shortwave digs across Wisconsin. 12Z model
consensus is slightly slower with this shortwave, and keeps our
region under the influence of a subtle ridge. This should keep the
area dry Wednesday, with temperatures climbing into the 70s in most
Model guidance starts to close off the approaching shortwave
Wednesday night which should further delay its arrival. Timing also
differs, with the 12Z ECMWF slower than other guidance. Consensus
timing supports a chance of showers across far western areas late
Wednesday night, but it now appears the cold front will move across
the region on Thursday when there will be a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms. Also, the slower ECMWF would result in
much warmer temperatures on Thursday. It is possible it will be
significantly warmer (or colder) depending on the timing of the
High pressure will briefly build into the region behind the cold
front with dry weather and lows dropping into the 40s on Thursday
Then on Friday the boundary will stall and strengthen as a baroclinic
zone develops between an upper level ridge off the Southeastern
Coast and a trough across the mid-west. Forecast confidence
decreases at this point, due to the close proximity of this
sharpening boundary. In contrast with previous guidance, most 12z
operational runs have trended considerably colder and keep our
region along or just on the cold side of the boundary. This would
result in high temperatures mainly in the 60s for Friday and
Saturday, but there still are several GFS ensemble members which put
our region into the warm sector so 80s are still not out of the
question depending on the position of this front. Otherwise
there will be a persistent chance of showers, and possibly a
thunderstorm along the frontal boundary on Friday and Saturday.
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will be found across the vast majority of western and
north central New York through daybreak...with the possible exception
being east of lake Ontario where some patchy fog could result in
MVFR vsbys for sites such as KART and KGTB.
The nearly cloud free skies and light winds will remain in place
across the region though the upcoming day...as high pressure will
remain in control of our region. This fair weather will continue
through Sunday night as well.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure moving into the region will result in tranquil
conditions on the lakes through Sunday night. Northeasterly winds
will freshen on Monday, as a slow moving area of low pressure moving
up the Eastern Seaboard draws closer to the lakes, reorienting the
pressure gradient across the area. This will produce choppy
conditions along the southern shores of the lakes Monday afternoon
into Monday evening, though conditions should relax somewhat by
Tuesday, as winds shift to the southeast.