Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 280238
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1038 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored off the Southeast Coast will combine with
persistent low pressure over the center of the country to keep a
feed of warm humid air in place through the bulk of the long holiday
weekend. The mid-summer like warmth will fuel some widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms mainly away from the lakes each day
through Monday, becoming increasingly likely through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong ridging will build in tonight and Saturday, with 500 mb
heights rising from about 584 dam this evening to about 588 dam by
Saturday evening. The building high pressure and strong subsidence
will allow for 850 mb temperatures to rise another 2C to around
+17C/+18C by Saturday afternoon, and will keep shower and
thunderstorm chances fairly minimal tonight and tomorrow.

High temperatures on Saturday will run a few degrees warmer than
today, with locations from the Genesee Valley across the northern
Finger Lakes reaching the low 90s. 80s will be found across the
higher terrain of the So Tier and the North Country, as well as
northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario (Buffalo and Watertown), where
afternoon lake breezes will dominate. Will have to watch for some
potential daily record temperatures tomorrow, with the current
forecast of 87 in Buffalo and 85 in Watertown projecting a broken
record and a tied record, respectively. More info on the daily
records can be found in the climate section of the discussion below.

With regard to precipitation chances, a dry night is store tonight,
followed by a mostly dry day on Saturday. A lone shower or
thunderstorm developing off a lake breeze boundary may be the only
exception Saturday, however this looks like a rather low chance. The
strong ridging build in through the day will likely keep the cap in
place. Have included a 30 PoP to account for this low chance of a
shower or storm developing off the lake breeze boundary. Otherwise,
the Niagara Frontier, including Buffalo, as well as the North
Country will most certainly remain dry with the stabilizing lake
breezes in place by the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great
Lakes Region through Sunday. The ridge will finally loosen its grip
on Monday and a trough over the upper Great Lakes shifts east.

The big story continues to be the early season heat and humidity
through the first part of the period.  Temperatures Sunday will
just be a tad lower than Saturday with another warm muggy night
on tap Sunday night with temperatures only lowering to the mid 60s
in most spots.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms again develop on Sunday during
the afternoon and early evening hours. These will once again focus
on and inland of the lake breezes and leftover boundaries of
previous convection.

A shortwave will approach the region from the Upper Lakes Sunday
night with more numerous showers and thunderstorms. Activity will
end from west to east on Monday... most likely late morning across
western New York and during the afternoon over the Finger Lakes and
Eastern Lake Ontario region.  The passage of the cool front will
bring a bit of relief temperature-wise with highs on Monday within
a few degrees of 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cooler and drier air will push into Western and North-Central New
York Monday Night in the wake of a cool frontal passage, ushering in
a period of quieter weather. This period of tranquil early summer
weather will be driven by upper level ridging that will be amplifying
over the Lower Great Lakes in response to a trough digging across
the Northern Rockies and Upper Missouri Valley. Dry conditions with
seasonably warm temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average should
prevail at least through Wednesday Night.

While model guidance differs somewhat in terms of details, the
general trend for the latter portion of next week will be a return
to more unsettled weather as the upper level ridge either flattens
out or shifts off to the east, depending on the model solution.
Either way, this will pave the way for a return to more humid
conditions with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday
will be the transition day between the outgoing ridging and incoming
troughing, so have elected to go with low chance pops for the time
being.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist tonight and on Saturday as a strong
ridge of high pressure builds across the region. A stray afternoon
shower or thunderstorm may develop off the lake breeze, however
chances remain low with the building high pressure. KJHW/KROC would
be most likely to see a shower should one develop, but the
probability remains too low to include VCSH in the TAF at this time.

Outlook...
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A burgeoning ridge centered off the Southeast Coast...but extending
to the northwest across the Lower Great Lakes...will keep mainly
fair weather in place through at least the first half of the
Memorial Day weekend. A few storms firing along lake breeze
boundaries tomorrow afternoon may clip the nearshore waters.
Otherwise expect light winds and negligible waves.

While fine conditions for recreational boating will likely persist
through Sunday...there will be an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday as a frontal system will move
across the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH/SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS



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