Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 250237
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID
WEATHER ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. LATEST VISIBLE LOOP SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED AREA OF SMOKE PUSHING DOWN THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE. THIS VEIL OF
SMOKE ORIGINATES FROM FIRES OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN CANADA. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS THIN LAYER OF SMOKE MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
DIPPING TOO LOW TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL STILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S CLOSER THE LAKES.

AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A VIVID SUNRISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SUNNY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION...THOUGH IT SHOULD STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LAST SHORT PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN
AMPLIFYING 500MB TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN
TO NEXT WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME
LINGERING LOFTED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM WILDFIRES OVER NORTHWESTERN
CANADA. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM
AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGING NORTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ATTACHED TO A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP A
LIKELY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE NOT EXPECTED TO RAIN THE WHOLE TIME THERE WILL BE A
BREAK SOMETIME ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARRIVE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELY PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM
ONLY RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINS OR FLOODING POTENTIAL. HIGHEST CAPE AND BULK SHEAR VALUES
ALONG WITH THETA-E PLUME WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF NEW YORK SO ALSO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE WITH 60S DEWPOINTS KEEPING A HUMID FEEL
TO THE AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A BROAD 500MB
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH EVEN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS A SHARP
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WHICH ARE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE EXTENT OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING
OF WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS NEW YORK. THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. WHILE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND COOL
THE INSTABILITY BROUGHT ON BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COLDER AIR ALOFT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C.

COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT BROUGHT ON BY -3SD 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL LATE JULY AVERAGES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A PACIFIC SOURCED AIRMASS
WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S SO OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE OFFSET BY A THIN VEIL OF SMOKE AROUND
FL200 THAT IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA FROM FIRES IN FAR
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO
SOUTH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY OFF TO OUR
EAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LAKES WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH WINDS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS CREATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF
THE LAKES.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




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