Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 261357
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
857 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
TODAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A STEADY LIGHT SNOW IN MOST
AREAS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD SURFACE LOW FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES EARLY THIS AFETRNOON
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND
FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS.

WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK...SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY 850MB
JET FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS
WELL...WITH COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LEFT EXIT REGIONS OF TWO JET
STREAKS TO OUR WEST AND EAST..

RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES AT 1330Z. THE SNOW WILL REACH
THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER 14Z-15Z...THEN
SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 16Z-17Z. A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. 00Z GFS AND 03Z SREF HAVE A
MORE WESTWARD BIAS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WILL EXPECT MORE SNOW
TO IMPACT THE BUF AND ROC AREAS AS WELL AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
BACKS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT WEST OF
THE FINGER LAKES...AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE
WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS UNDER
A PERSISTENT COLD NORTHEAST FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR ZERO EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND EXPANDING SURFACE HIGH FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE TO SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW BEGINS...VSBY WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO 1-2SM...WITH CIGS 1-3K FT. THE SNOW WILL HAVE
A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY
INCLUDING KART THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MVFR CEILING AND
MVFR/IFR VSBY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
MID APPALACHIANS AND RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS
BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/WCH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH







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