Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 280616
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
216 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...WHEN A COMPLEX
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EARLIER CLEARING IS SLOWLY BEING REPLACED BY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS HAVE
ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES EARLY TONIGHT.
THESE SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY WARM LAKES. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
OR CONVERGENT FLOW TO CAUSE ANY LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
50S WHICH IS ABOUT DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ON THURSDAY...850MB TEMPS WILL AVERAGE +7C WHICH IS COOL ENOUGH TO
ELICIT A LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE IN CLOUDINESS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AS DRIER
AIR MIXES IN...FIRST STARTING INLAND AND ACROSS THE LAKES...AND
EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNSET THURSDAY.
BREAKS OF SUN WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOL AIR ADVECTION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WARM...BUT MAINLY DRY START TO THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A COOL DRY
NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BACK INTO
THE MID 70S ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. THE WARM-UP WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD STAY LARGELY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST AROUND THE EDGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT STEEPEN...HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS ANY TRIGGERS WILL BE LARGELY MESOSCALE IN
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL FALL ON SUNDAY WHEN A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO TRACKS ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL INTRODUCE
DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TIED TO A MUCH DEEPER SURFACE CYCLONE OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWING
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY...LIKELY BRINGING A MORE EXTENSIVE ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE WITH 60+ DEGREE
DEWPOINTS MAKING IT FEEL QUITE HUMID. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REINTRODUCE COOLER AND DRIER AIR BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR/LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE CWA
AT 06Z...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE KJHW IS ALREADY SEEING MVFR CIGS FORMING AS A RESULT OF LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS THAT CAN BE SEEN ON 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDINESS SHOULD EXPAND AND LOWER OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES...WITH LOW VFR CIGS INCREASING ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS EARLY ON...THEN MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR ALL AREAS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE COOL
UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOW VFR CIGS AT THE KART
TERMINAL. THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND A BIT EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOP DUE TO THE COOL POOL OF AIR RESIDING
OVERHEAD. THESE DECKS SHOULD BE THIN HOWEVER AS THOUGH AIR ALOFT IS
COOL...IT IS ALSO RELATIVELY DRY. THIS COOL DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD
EVENTUALLY MIX IN...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WITH LOCAL IFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH AVERAGES AROUND 15 KNOTS. THUS FAR
WAVES HAVE TOPPED OUT AT AROUND 3 FEET...WITH CONDITIONS JUST SHY OF
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA...BUT THERE STILL IS A DECENT CHOP ON THE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WHERE WAVES WILL
PROBABLY PUSH NEAR 4 FEET LATE TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS THEN SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AND RELAX SOME BY EARLY THIS MORNING. WAVES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN JUST AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS ON LAKE ERIE WITH THE
PERPENDICULAR WIND FLOW. WINDS AND WAVES WILL LESSEN AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...APFFEL/JM






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