Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 232030
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
330 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LIFTS NORTHEAST. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND A SMALL AREA OF STUBBORN CLOUDS JUST DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE. FOR TONIGHT THE REGION WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO THE LOW 20S.

SATURDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM BOTH
THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE APPROACHING FRONT. SKIES WILL
COMPLETELY CLOUD UP BY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW AS
A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH A HIGH WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
32.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW
YORK STATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS
FROM THE GULF OF MAINE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE NOR`EASTER
WILL BE TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY IMPACTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK BUT THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. A
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF HAS BEEN FEATURED. THE QUICK PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND ARCTIC SOURCED AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT. ONLY THINKING AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LESS THAN AN INCH ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 SATURDAY EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY MORNING SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT MAY BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS JUMP TOWARD 6KFT BUT SHOULD QUICKLY
BECOME SQUASHED AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SOME LAKE CLOUDS MAY LINGER BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH A SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORKING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AHEAD OF CLIPPER LOW CROSSING THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS/ECMWF MODELS
SUGGEST THE ARCTIC HIGH JUST NORTH OF GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP THE
CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED SNOW SOUTH OF THE NY/PA LINE BUT A FEW SREF
MEMBERS INDICATE A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE LOCATIONS NEAR THE STATE LINE COULD PICK UP
A QUICK INCH. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 IN THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WILL SLIDE INTO THE LOW TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE NORTH COUNTY.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST WITH ANY
SOUTHERN TIER SNOW ENDING ENDING EARLY. OTHERWISE DRY ARCTIC AIR
WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS MONDAY
THEN DROPPING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TOWARD 10 BELOW EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. JUST 5-10 MPH OF WIND WOULD PUSH WIND CHILLS TOWARD
ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING LEVEL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED 500MB PATTERN FEATURING A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
ACROSS NEW YORK THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST OF THE AIR EARLY IN
THE WEEK WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW OVER CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTH AND
MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS PHASING LOOKS TO DEPRESS THE WESTERN RIDGE PUSHING SOME HIGHER
HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD HELP BRING TEMPS BACK CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK BUT THE FLOW WILL NOT BE LONG-LIVED ENOUGH TO
FOR OUR TEMPS TO REACH NORMAL LATE JANUARY LEVELS. GENERALLY EXPECT
DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCED FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ON TUESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT MODELS SHIFT THE DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND JUST NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. BEHIND THIS
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING TO DRY CONDITIONS.

FURTHER OUT...TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY...GFS/ECMWF 500MB
PATTERNS SHOW A BROAD DEEP TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES IN RESPONSE TO HIGH LATITUDE ARCTIC AIR SURGING
SOUTHWARD. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A RETURN TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TO START FEBRUARY...COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
POSSIBLY RAMP BACK UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION AREAS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS ARE HOLDING CIGS
NEAR 2KFT. IN THE KBUF-KIAG VCNTY THESE CIGS WILL SCT OUT THIS BY
THIS EVE. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING KART WHILE THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS IN THE OVC CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY MVFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...VFR CONDS TO START THE MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS BY DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING MVFR/OCNL IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
LIGHT SNOW FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL STRENGTHEN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WINDS
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND WAVES BUILD. WINDS/WAVES WILL SUBSIDE DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

REMINDER...DUE TO INCREASING ICE COVERAGE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PROGRAM FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA RIVER HAS
BEEN SUSPENDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WINTER SEASON... AND WILL
RESUME IN THE SPRING ONCE THE ICE MELTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN






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