Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 170352
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1152 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION
LATE IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN AVERAGE. HOWEVER...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
ACROSS THE REGION.

AT 1000 PM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT
FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.
THESE CLOUDS WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AROUND DAYBREAK. THUS FAR COVERAGE
HAS BEEN SPARSE...WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RADIATION FOG IN
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. CLOUDS MAY EXPAND A BIT...BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY FOCUS ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES WITH THE LAKES. THE
HRRR/RGEM BOTH FORECAST LIGHT QPF...BUT RADAR SO FAR DOES NOT
SUPPORT THIS...AND SUSPECT THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLIDE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY PROVIDING
ANOTHER DAY OF DRY...BUT CONTINUED COOL WEATHER. EXPECT SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AGAIN WEDNESDAY INLAND FROM THE
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVERSPREADING THE
NORTH COUNTRY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AS 850MB TEMPERATURES
CLIMB FROM AROUND +4C TO +6C BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW
UPPER 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS THE TYPICALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL SAG INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LATEST
MODELS SUGGESTING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING
ACROSS ONTARIO/SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS FRONT SHOULD
COME THROUGH DRY.

IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 1000-500MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RISES SWINGING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A VERY STABLE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECASTED TO
DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. INCOMING AIR MASS LOOKS QUITE DRY...BUT ALSO QUITE CHILLY
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR -2C BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST OF THE SEASON.
ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH MOISTURE FLUXING OFF LAKE ONTARIO
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDINESS HOLDING UP TEMPERATURES.
THE NORTH COUNTY SHOULD BE CLEAR WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES MUCH
MORE LIKELY.

THE ARCTIC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SET UP WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MINOR UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DURING THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TO
THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...POSSIBLY EVEN
WARMER LOOK LIKELY FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY
HOW THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT. CLASSIC SHORTWAVE RIDGING
SHOULD PROTECT THE AREA FROM PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY...IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY. AT THIS POINT...THE MODEL
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDER CONTINUES TO BE IN THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
MONDAY TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. FRONT LOOKING
TO TAP INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...BUT
IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICK ENOUGH TO
LIMIT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPSTREAM TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF HUDSON BAY EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. WITH MOST OF THE EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUPPORTING THIS SOLUTION THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME VERY
CHILLY AIR TO MAKE A RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 02Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SPARSE VFR CIGS EAST
OF THE LAKES DROP SOUTH THEN LIFT BACK NORTH TOWARD DAYBREAK. LATER
TONIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME FOG AT JHW...WITH THE MAINLY DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE IS. A PROLONGED CLEARING MAY ALLOW
PATCHY BUT DENSE VALLEY FOG...HOWEVER LINGERING CLOUDS EAST OF
LAKE ERIE LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER DAY OF DRY...BUT
CONTINUED COOL WEATHER. ANY EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS
THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING...AND
LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DO EXPECT SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY INLAND FROM THE
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS STARTING TO
OVERSPREAD THE NORTH COUNTRY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR. SOME PATCHES OF
MVFR CIGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG WITH LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT
VSBYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES HAVE DROPPED THE SCA. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ON LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO WHICH HAS A SMALL CHANCE
TO PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS. HOWEVER EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS APPEAR TOO
LOW...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...WILL MONITOR
RADAR/REPORTS BEFORE ADDING TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/JM







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