Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 220225
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1025 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP FAIR AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER INTACT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH JUST A STRAY ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE
AWAY FROM THE LAKES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 0235Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THAT THE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS
ARE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...WITH JUST A FEW OF THESE
NOW LEFT ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY
COUNTIES. THESE SHOULD DIE OUT ALTOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT...LEAVING
BEHIND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG TO ONCE
AGAIN FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY THE LOW AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGING WILL CENTER OVER NEW
YORK. 850MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO BETWEEN +18C TO +20C. EXPECT A VERY
WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SO LAKE BREEZES WILL AGAIN PROVIDE
SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ALONG THE LAKE SHORES. A 700MB CAPPING
INVERSION AND THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP A LID ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR AN ISOLATED STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THERE ARE TWO JET STREAMS OVER THE WESTERN US. THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE THE RESULT OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THESE JETS
FORMING AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS
WEEK. THE KEY SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES ARE ALREADY EVIDENT AND ARE
SAGGING SOUTH OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NY WEDNESDAY. A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
THE SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES BEING CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR
THE GREATEST CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS LIKE A LOW
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME WITH SHEAR MAINLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 25
KNOTS. TIMING IS STILL A LITTLE QUESTIONABLE...BUT IF THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH EARLY THEN THAT WOULD LOWER ANY SEVERE THREAT DUE TO
LESS INSOLATION AND THUS LOWER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE FRONT WILL ALREADY BE THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA...WITH PAST FEW RUNS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING A SOMEWHAT
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DURING THE EARLY
EVENING WILL QUICKLY END. LATEST MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS
SUGGEST SOME POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...SO AFTER INITIAL
CLEARING DURING THE EVENING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD MAY DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH EVEN SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
POSSIBLE AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND +8C OVER LAKE ONTARIO LATE.

ON THURSDAY...SOME LOW TOPPED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM
LATE MORNING ON...ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD GET AWAY WITH A SUNNY
OR MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10F LOWER
THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS MAY MAKE IT FEEL
NOTICEABLY COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT AS A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS OVERHEAD AND A COOL AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE LAKE PLAINS
WILL DROP INTO THE MID 50S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE COOLER
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND THE TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK GREAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY FROM
THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT MINIMAL CLOUDS
ASIDE FROM ANY TYPICAL MORNING VALLEY FOG. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH EXCELLENT SLEEPING WEATHER
OVERNIGHT /HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
50S...COOLER WELL INLAND/. BY SATURDAY HIGHS WILL REACH TO NEAR
AVERAGE WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE
PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE MORE IN QUESTION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE REGION. THERE ARE A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES
WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...WITH A SURFACE LOW WEST OR SOUTH OF THE
REGION BY SUNDAY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH OR EVEN A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN LAKES BY MONDAY AND PROVIDE PERIODS OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE AS LOBES OF VORTICITY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW. THIS LOOKS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
STARTING SUNDAY AND GOING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO
IFR/MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THESE SHOULD REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. SOME IFR/MVFR
VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP
FAIR AND MAINLY DRY/VFR WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR BECOMING
LIKELY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR...SAVE FOR IFR/MVFR IN
PATCHY SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG LATER EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE ALSO PRODUCING
SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/ZAFF
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







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