Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 090823
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
423 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WHILE
BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
OTHERWISE EXPECT COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER AS A COOLER
CANADIAN AIRMASS CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. DRY WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 08Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE MAIN SURFACE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS
FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. EXPECT THE FRONT TO FINISH CLEARING
OUR EASTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH ANY ATTENDANT
SHOWER CHANCES ENDING WITH ITS PASSAGE.

MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST...SOME MODEST BAGGINESS PERSISTS IN
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO/NEARBY SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/EASTERN LAKE ERIE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE FEATURE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS IS
STILL HELPING TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SPORADIC
SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST. SOME OF THIS CLOUD
COVER WILL PROBABLY MANAGE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND SPILL INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
OF A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER. AS FOR THE STRAY THUNDERSTORM
FOUND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PA...THIS IS ON AN EASTERLY TRACK AND
SHOULD THUS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING THROUGH SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT WEAK SECONDARY
COLD FRONT. IN CONCERT WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THESE FEATURES SHOULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION...THOUGH WITH CONSIDERABLY
LESSER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE COMPARED TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO BE MUCH MORE
SCATTERED...AND GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG AND INLAND FROM ANY LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY-WISE...EXPECT A
COOLER AND LESS HUMID DAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF +9C TO +12C
SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S IN MOST PLACES...WHILE
DEWPOINTS HOVER IN THE MORE COMFORTABLE MID TO UPPER 50S.

TONIGHT...ANY LINGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OUT EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WITH LIGHTENING WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH FURTHER MODEST
COOLING OF OUR AIRMASS...LOW TEMPS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S IN MOST PLACES TONIGHT...THOUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY COULD REACH THE UPPER 40S. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARMER RIVER WATERS...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A VERY UNSETTLED PERIOD...THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH
QUIETER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS A DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN THE SOURCE OF MUCH OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS
WEEK WILL CROSS OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED DIURNAL STRATOCU INLAND FROM THE LAKES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE TO GO AROUND. THIS POOL OF COOLER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE
REGION WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SEASONABLY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

ANY DIURNAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THURSDAY EVENING
YIELDING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL IN TURN
FACILITATE RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW TO MID 50S WITH THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND NORTH COUNTRY POTENTIALLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S. THESE
PROCESSES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

SUNSHINE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE EXTENSIVE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. WITH THE COOLEST AIR ALSO
DEPARTING WITH THE TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 70S...THOUGH WITH DEWPOINTS STAYING IN THE 50S IT SHOULD STILL
FEEL QUITE PLEASANT OUTSIDE. THIS FAIR WEATHER WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
FOR ONE MORE NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND TO THE EAST COAST. RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW WARMER
AIR TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE REGION...AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A WARMER NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO THE LOWER 60S...COOLEST IN THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN
TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THINGS START TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING ONCE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS A SUBTLE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS FEATURE MAY SPARK A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ITS IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

ON THE OTHER HAND...SUNDAY LOOKS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE AS AN INTENSE
UPPER LOW WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC AND INTO
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL IN TURN
STRENGTHEN RETURN FLOW AND THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER. WITH PWATS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 1.75
INCHES...THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT MID-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
NEARLY AS STRONG WITH THE SYSTEM ...SO AT THE PRESENT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE AN ISSUE.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW DIGS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IT IS WORTH NOTING
THAT THIS LOW CONTAINS SOME VERY COLD AIR...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
DEPICT 850MB TEMPS OF +2 TO +4C ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO MONDAY. BOTH
MODELS SUGGEST THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW COINCIDENT WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE MUCH MORE
VIGOROUS...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOLLOWED BY
UNSEASONABLY CHILLY WEATHER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE...THIS IS A LONG
WAY OUT AND A LOT CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...SO STAY TUNED
FOR MORE DETAILS...

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...EXPECT GENERAL VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...THOUGH SOME SPOTTY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. A FEW ISOLATED PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO CROSS
THE REGION...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED IN
NATURE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG FORMATION
IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY IFR POSSIBLE IN THE
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

DURING THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
DIG ACROSS THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY AN ATTENDANT SECONDARY COLD
FRONT. TOGETHER...THESE WILL HELP GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
CONVECTION...WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS TENDING TO REMAIN ALONG AND
INLAND FROM ANY LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WHILE SOME OF THESE MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...THE COVERAGE/TIMING
OF THESE APPEARS TO BE TOO SPARSE/DIFFICULT TO WARRANT ANYTHING
OTHER THAN A MENTION OF VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE SOME PATCHY IFR FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS HAVING TRENDED LIGHTER ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND ALONG MUCH OF
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...A
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE THIS
MORNING.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES TODAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LOZ044-
         045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR







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