426
FXUS61 KBUF 141527
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1127 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the area today with just a few showers
and thunderstorms. Dry weather expected tonight and Tuesday behind
the front. Heat and humidity return by mid week with scattered
daytime showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak cold front continuing to move through the region late this
morning and should exit south and east of the area this afternoon.

Lingering moisture and building instability will support some
showers or an isolated thunderstorm. This will especially be the
case along convergence boundaries found along the lake plains south
of Lake Ontario, and also far interior sections of the Southern Tier
into the Finger Lakes. We should see lower humidity levels today,
along with temperatures not as warm as over the weekend with highs
in the lower to mid 80s.

Weak surface based ridging builds into the region tonight with dry
weather lasting through Tuesday. Heat and humidity will also begin
to ramp back up on Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s, a few
spots may break the 90F mark across the Genesee Valley and Lake
Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will move into the northern Rockies Tuesday
night. The trough will move east across the Northern Plains
Wednesday through Wednesday night before merging with a low
amplitude trough over southern Canada Thursday. An upper level ridge
will build across the eastern seaboard and southwest flow will
advect warmth and moisture into the eastern Great Lakes region.
Initially, dry weather will continue across the forecast area
Tuesday night. A weak wave will move across the Ohio Valley
Wednesday and ascent and moisture will move into the forecast area.
Showers and a few storms are possible with the greatest chance
during peak heating across the western Southern Tier into the Finger
Lakes region. Hot and humid weather is anticipated Wednesday with
heat indices 95-100F across the lake plains, Genesee Valley, and
Finger Lakes region. Cloud cover may suppress heating, however there
is medium confidence that heat indices will be reached.

A cold front with weak waves along it will approach the region from
the northwest Wednesday night through Thursday night. Timing of
these features is uncertain, however showers and a few storms will
be possible given the soupy, warm airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Model consensus shows the cold front moving through the region
Friday, which will give relief to the warm and humid weather.
Showers and a few thunderstorms, potentially strong are possible
ahead of the front Friday.

An area of high pressure is forecast to move across the Great Lakes
region Saturday, before moving off the east coast Sunday. Models
have been trending drier Saturday. Troughing moves back into the
region Sunday with the potential for showers and a few thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some lingering MVFR ceilings late the morning closer to Lake
Ontario from KBUF to KFZY. These ceilings will gradually improve
to VFR this afternoon. Some showers or a thunderstorm possible
today, which may impact KIAG to KROC and across interior section
of the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes region.

HRRR/RAP smoke models are not clear as to whether or not smoke
density will suffice in causing any vsby restrictions.

Tonight...VFR will prevail at all area terminals but there will be
some limited fog across the Southern Tier. Low confidence of it
impacting KJHW at this time.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Restrictions possible in scattered
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will slowly work through the region today, with winds
generally variable at less than 10 knots.

Quiet conditions are expected on the lower Great Lakes through the
Tuesday with winds variable under 10 knots. Could see a more
predominately southerly flow behind the passage of a warm front
Wednesday, but winds should remain below 10 knots.

Next chance for increased winds will be Thursday behind a passing
cold front with southwesterly winds pickup up to 15 knots with waves
getting into the 2-3 foot range at times. There will be greater
potential for thunderstorms during this time, so winds and waves
could be higher in those instances.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001>007-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...AR/TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...AR/TMA
MARINE...TMA