Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 271853
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
253 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will persist until a weak cold front drops southward
from Canada tonight bringing a few stray showers and thunderstorms
to the North Country tonight and and across portions of Western New
York and the Finger Lakes region on Thursday. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms will continue into the weekend as a broad trough
temporarily settles across the Great Lakes and Northeast States.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will move off to the east as a weakening cold front
moves southward across Southern Ontario. There will be a low chance
for showers or isolated thunderstorms across the Saint Lawrence
River and the North Country this evening and early tonight, then
mainly just a layer of some mid and high clouds overnight.

Nearly clear skies and temperatures cooling to near the dewpoint
temp will result in valley fog forming in the Southern Tier
valleys, after midnight until just after daybreak. Overnight low
temperatures will settle to the lower to mid 60s inland and across
higher terrain, and to the mid to upper 60s closer to the warm
lakes and in urbanized areas.

The weak cold front will continue to move south across the region on
Thursday and should reach the Southern Finger Lakes and Southern
Tier counties by midday and the afternoon. The front will then act
as a focus and weak lifting mechanism for afternoon convection with
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The low chance for afternoon
convection will also linger over the Saint Lawrence Valley closer to
the broad upper trough over Quebec. High temperatures on Thursday
will be in the lower to middle 80s with some upper 80s across
Central New York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
There had been some hope that parts of our area would pick up some
beneficial showers and thunderstorms during this period...but the
trend of most of the guidance packages are suggesting that such
activity may not be as widespread as earlier anticipated. In fact...
a large portion of Western New York may not pick up measurable rain
through Saturday night...with an even greater chance for dry weather
found across the North Country. Looking at the details...

A weak cold front that will gradually push south across our region
on Thursday will settle across Pennsylvania where it will stall
Thursday night and Friday. While a wave moving east along the
stalled front will help to generate some showers and thunderstorms
over the Keystone state...the track of the wave is now expected to
be further to the south. General lift associated with the
disorganized sfc low will thus be further south as well...leaving
little forcing across our forecast area. Have thus backed off on the
pops a little for sites north of the Srn Tier. In fact...high
pressure based over the the Upper Great Lakes will press far enough
across Lake Ontario to promote some clearing from the north during
the course of Friday afternoon.

The sfc high will expand across all of the Great Lakes region Friday
night...and this will help to push the wavy frontal boundary even
further south across the Mid Atlantic region. Outside of a leftover
evening shower across the Southern Tier...this will leave an
uneventful night in place for our forecast area with at least
partial clearing continuing from north to south.

On Saturday...the high will make its way across New England with
generally fair weather holding in place across our region. The
exception could come across the Srn Tier where increased moisture
within the return flow around the exiting sfc high could support a
late day shower or day for sites well south of Buffalo.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A progressive...low amplitude trough over the Great Lakes at the
start of this period will push off to the East during the start of
the new work week. This will allow scattered showers and
thunderstorms at the end of the weekend to clear out...leaving
fine...mid summer weather across the region for the Monday through
Wednesday time frame.

Temperatures during this period will once again climb to levels that
will average some 5 to 8 deg f above normal early Aug values.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail this evening and much of the night as
high pressure slowly slides to the east. A weakening cold front will
move south into the Lake Ontario basin and along the Saint Lawrence
River tonight, which may bring some showers and scattered
thunderstorms to the North Country, but likely avoiding KART.

Nearly clear skies and temperatures cooling to near the dewpoint
temp will result in valley fog forming in the Southern Tier valley,
affecting KJHW with IFR visibility after 06Z until around 12Z.

The front will continue to the south and cross New York State during
the day on Thursday, with most chance of precipitation across the
Southern Tier during the afternoon, this time likely avoiding KJHW.

Outlook...

Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Friday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain across the Eastern Great Lakes through
this evening with a weak cold front pressing south across Lake
Ontario tonight. This will then be followed by another high pressure
area late in the week. Winds and waves are expected to remain below
small craft criteria into the beginning of the weekend.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH


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