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000
FXUS61 KBUF 100856
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
456 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TWO WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL TODAY AND TUESDAY. A LATE WINTER STORM WILL
THEN POTENTIALLY BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL /SURFACE TO 700MB/ WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS
OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS OBSERVED ON KBUF LAPS SOUNDING AND
GREAT LAKES MESOANALYSIS GRAPHICS. VIEWING HIGH LEVEL KBGM RADAR
SCANS...AS KBUF AND KTYX REMAIN INOPERABLE...ALONG WITH SURFACE OBS
SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. THIS IS OCCURRING AS THE LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND THERMAL
GRADIENT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SHIFTING JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. A BLEND OF NAM/SREF/GFS QPF SUGGEST ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL
ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES SOME RADAR RETURNS ARE
BEING PICKED UP BUT THE LAPS SOUNDING IS SUGGESTING THAT DRIER AIR AT
THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE KEEPING
MUCH OF THE PRECIP FROM REACHING THE GROUND. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS SLOWLY RISING THIS
MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WNY ARE REPORTING MID TO UPPER 30S
AT 08Z THANKS IN PART TO A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW. A 50 KNOT 850MB JET WILL ALSO KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS AROUND
THIS MORNING BUT A SURFACE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST WINDS
FROM REACHING THE GROUND. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH LOOK TO BE ABOUT THE
MAX.

LATER THIS MORNING THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE BRINGING THE SNOW TO THE
NORTH COUNTY WILL EXIT TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BECOME INCREASING SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
BEHIND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE. A LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL ALSO
LINGER FROM NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTHEAST TO THE ADIRONDACKS.
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE VERY LIMITED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON SO WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING OF THE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE THERMAL BOUNDARY HAVE WORDED THE FORECAST AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BUT SOME DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER TOWARD THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB TODAY UNDER THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE WHICH VERIFIED BEST DURING OUR WARMUP
LAST WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES BUT A FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE
SHOULD KEEP THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND ESPECIALLY BUFFALO LIMITED TO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THE NORTH COUNTY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S WITH THE WARMER AIR TAKING LONGER TO ARRIVE. AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB ABOVE 32 SOME PATCHY ADVECTION FOG MAY FOR OVER THE
LINGERING THIN SNOW PACK.

TONIGHT MUCH OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. A SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE OBSERVED THIS
MORNING CROSSING NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
SHOT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT THAT WILL JUST BRUSH
NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SOME SHOWERS. ANOTHER STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ALSO SLIDE ACROSS OUR REGION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN
MILD AND PROBABLY NOT FALLING BELOW THE MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS MEANS A P-TYPE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COLDER TUG HILL REGION. AGAIN THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL STAY REMOVED FROM WESTERN NEW YORK WITH JUST LOWER CHANCES OF
RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. BEFORE THAT...
TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MILD WITH INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH MID
40S IN MANY AREAS FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL STAY A LITTLE COOLER WITH UPPER 30S.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THERE ARE STILL SOME MINOR TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES
AMONGST THE GFS/ECMWF/GLOBAL GEM AND THEIR ENSEMBLES...BUT THOSE
DIFFERENCES ARE MUCH SMALLER TODAY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. IN THE MID
LEVELS...A STRONG PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND RACE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH STREAM PHASING OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION LEADING TO A DYNAMIC SYSTEM. THE
TROUGH WILL BECOME FULLY PHASED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EAST
COAST...WITH A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH CHARGING INTO THE NORTHEAST.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH BEGINS
TO TAKE SHAPE...FRONTOGENESIS AND DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY...ALLOWING LIGHT SNOW TO BREAK
OUT OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NY AND REACHING CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AT THE ONSET.

ON WEDNESDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
EARLY IN THE MORNING TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY EVENING...
BEFORE HEADING TO NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY ON WEDNESDAY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH RAPIDLY SHARPENS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES SHOULD ALSO AID IN DEVELOPING A BROAD BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
AND DEFORMATION TO THE LEFT OF THE LOW TRACK. GIVEN HOW RAPIDLY THE
SYSTEM DEEPENS...BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A WELL DEVELOPED
COMMA HEAD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAY BE REALIZED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW AS THE TROWAL AIRSTREAM BECOMES FULLY
ESTABLISHED. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE THAN AMPLE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW...WITH 3.5 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NOTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT.

THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS COMING TOGETHER...ALONG WITH
THE FAVORABLE LOW TRACK ALL POINT TOWARDS A NOTABLE SNOW EVENT
ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND...A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. TIMING WILL BE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE WEST...AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE EAST. THIS STORM IS MOVING ALONG FAIRLY QUICKLY SO IT
WILL NOT BE A TRULY LARGE SNOWSTORM...BUT THE LOWER END OF WARNING
CRITERIA APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT. INITIAL ESTIMATE ON STORM
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IS ON THE ORDER OF 7-12 INCHES. SYNOPTICALLY
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE LESS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
GIVEN THE FORECAST LOW TRACK...BUT LAKE ENHANCEMENT DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE EVENT MAY VERY WELL MAKE UP FOR THAT AND BRING
TOTALS ALONG THE LAKESHORE UP INTO THAT RANGE. THIS EVENT IS STILL
TWO DAYS OUT...SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO THIS INITIAL
ESTIMATE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY EVEN THE LOWER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS. DURING THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW WRAPS UP...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND DRAW MUCH
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE
20S AND THROUGH THE TEENS AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES DROP
AND THE SNOW BECOMES LOWER DENSITY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
THIS WILL BE REPLACED BY AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WILL KEEP THIS MULTIBANDED...WITH A FEW EXTRA INCHES
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY POSSIBLY DROPPING TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE STORM WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE LAKE ON THURSDAY. AN EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FOR MID MARCH WILL
DUMP INTO THE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE MID TEENS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH LOWER TEENS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE COLD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE TROUGH REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO
NEAR AVERAGE AGAIN BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OR EVEN LOWER 40S IN THE
WARMER SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN END TO
ANY CHANCE OF PRECIP BY SUNDAY. IT WILL ALSO TURN COLDER HOWEVER
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK AT 09Z...THOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY
INCLUDING KART AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE CONTINUES BRING SNOW NORTH OF
KSYR THIS MORNING. A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS BRINGING SOME GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL THIS MORNING. SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE WHERE THESE HIGHER
WINDS STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS WNY AND
CNY CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS THE SURFACE WAVE BRINGS INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WARMER AIR AND RISING DEWPOINTS UNDER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BRING SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BRING IFR VIS
TO SOME TERMINALS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE LINGERS
BENEATH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO LINGER INTO
THE EVENING. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK AND ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK INCLUDING KART.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...MVFR. IN CIGS AND PATCHY FOG.
TUESDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...IFR. SNOW.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE LOWER LAKES. HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS/WAVES WILL SLACKEN
TODAY. AFTER THIS...EXPECT A MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. A DEVELOPING STORM MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO POSSIBLY GALES ON WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON ITS STRENGTH AND TRACK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH