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000
FXUS61 KBUF 101507
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1007 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING EAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH
TODAY WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. A WESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER
AIR WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY BRINGS A MORE WIDESPREAD GENERAL
SNOWFALL THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THE ENTIRE
PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK EAST
OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...

RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF BOTH LAKES...POSSIBLY DUE TO
SOME SEEDING OF ICE CRYSTALS FROM ABOVE AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND PRODUCES SOME LIGHT PRECIP ALOFT
IN THE MID LEVELS ABOVE THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD BANDS. THE CURRENT
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED...WITH BOTH BANDS
LIKELY WEAKENING BY MIDDAY DUE TO DRY AIR AND SOME INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. STILL...A FEW SPOTS OFF LAKE ERIE MAY SEE 2-4 INCHES
TODAY WITH 3-5 INCHES FROM NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY TO THE WESTERN TUG
HILL.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK CLIPPER LOW CROSSES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE BETTER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND LIFT ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION ALONG WITH A SHOT OF COLDER AIR BEHIND ITS
ACCOMPANYING ARCTIC FRONT. THIS COLDER SHOT OF AIR WILL RAISE LAKE
INVERSION HEIGHTS TO NEAR 15KFT WITH EXTREME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BENEATH THIS INVERSION. LAKE SURFACE TO 700MB
LAPSE RATES WILL RAISE TO 8+C/KM. THESE PARAMETERS WITH THE ADDITION
OF GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING EAST AND NORTHEAST
OF THE LAKES BEGINNING THIS EVENING FOR WHICH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AS OUTLINED BENEATH THE
MARINE SECTION. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE HEADLINES WAS THE ADDITION OF
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR ALLEGANY COUNTY AS LAKES SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY TOWARD THE EVENING
COMMUTE AND AS THE CLIPPER APPROACHES WINDS WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER NORTHWARD TO THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS WITH ITS NORTHERN EXTENT
PROBABLY EVEN REACHING METRO BUFFALO TOWARD TONAWANDA...AMHERST AND
CLARANCE. THE LAKE BAND WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW...LOW
VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS. BY LATE EVENING WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO VEER BACK TOWARD WESTERLY WHICH WILL SWING THE LAKE BAND
BACK SOUTH TO THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
ACROSS NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTY TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW
COULD ACCUMULATE IN THE BRIEF TIMES THAT THE SNOW BAND LIFTS NORTH
BUT THIS COMING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE WILL BRING A LARGER
IMPACT ACROSS THE GREATER BUFFALO REGION. LONGER RESIDENCE TIME OF
THE BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHTOWNS AND SOUTHERN TIER WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OR MORE.

LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT...
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO A WELL ORGANIZED LONG AXIS PARALLEL LAKE SNOW
BAND WILL BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TONIGHT. IMPACT HERE WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN OSWEGO...SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES UNDER A MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW. FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT
SHOWING A SIMILAR SHIFT IN THE LAKE BAND TONIGHT DUE TO BACKING
WINDS WITH THE APPROACHING CLIPPER AS WHAT WE SEE FOR LAKE ERIE.
THERE MAY BE SOME MEANDERING OF THE MORE PERSIST SNOWS BUT OVERALL
THE FOCUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST END OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 13 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL SHARPLY TAPPER OFF TOWARD THE OUTER EDGES OF THE BAND.
DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CLIPPER WILL
CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DELAY
ARE EXPECT ALONG INTERSTATE 81 DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES IN THE LAKE BAND.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY
OCCUR AS THE CLIPPER LOW PASSES ACROSS NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAKING FOR WIND CHILLS INN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND PERHAPS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE ONGOING AS WE OPEN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PERSISTENT WSW FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT COLD AIR
AND 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -16C WILL FOCUS ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT ALONG
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. SNOWFALL RATES WILL REALLY PICK UP DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY SYNOPTIC LIFT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME
MORE FOCUSED ON THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE LATER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
FLOW VEERING TO THE WNW AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE SCENARIO WILL BE MUCH THE SAME ON LAKE ONTARIO...JUST WITH
GREATER SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WHERE WE COULD SEE
CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO THE GREATER UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND LONGER WESTERLY FETCH OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AS WITH LAKE
ERIE...SUSPECT WE SHALL SEE A STRONG BURST OF SNOW LATER IN THE
EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEFORE FLOW
VEERS NORTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT SUSPECT
THAT BAND WILL BRIEFLY MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
BEFORE FALLING APART AS FETCH DECREASES AND VERTICAL PROFILE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SHEARED/DISORGANIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WITH
WIDESPREAD...BUT LESS INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS WE TRANSITION TO A MULTI-BAND REGIME.

FOR THURSDAY...WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED BEHIND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH BETTER ALIGNED VERTICAL PROFILES IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...EXPECT BAND TO REORGANIZE AND FOCUS ON
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE OFF LAKE ERIE AND ON THE TUG OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THE
TUG COULD EASILY SEE ANOTHER FOOT OR MORE THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IF A GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION CAN DEVELOP...BUT
NOT AS MUCH ON CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WHERE THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH UPSTREAM
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LAKE ERIE BAND COULD
SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH INTO BUFFALO METRO LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS SOUTHWESTERLY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY MOVING TO THE PIEDMONT.

IT WILL BE QUITE COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING IN THE -16 TO -18C RANGE. THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S THURSDAY. LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE TEENS
ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. ONCE THE PERSISTENT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 MPH ARE
FACTORED IN...WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES PERSIST TO END THE WORK WEEK RIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATEST MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE
HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH AT LEAST SOME LAKE CONTRIBUTION AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH
THE ACTUAL MEAN FLOW IS TOO HARD TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE
HAVE MAINTAINED GENERIC CHANCE PROBABILITIES. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING EAST OF THE
LAKES. UNDER A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW THE HEAVIER SNOWS ARE FOR THE
MOST PART REMAINING CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KJHW WHERE SOME IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LAKE EFFECT WILL LIFT NORTH
TOWARDS KBUF AND KART AS A CLIPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS LIKELY FROM ROUGHLY 22Z-01Z...WITH A BRIEF
RELAXATION AT KJHW. THE LAKE BAND WILL THEN SETTLE BACK TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AFTER 02Z WEDNESDAY WITH LOW MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS AT KJHW AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT AREAS OF IFR EAST OF
THE LAKES IN HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THURSDAY...VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR EXCEPT MVFR/IFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE
LAKES.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE KEEPING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LAKES TODAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE AS A CLIPPER LOW CROSSES THE
LOWER LAKES. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN RAISE ACROSS THE LAKES FROM
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THROUGH WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
RELAX SOME WITH GALE WARNING EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ006>008-012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ021.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.
         GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
         FOR LOZ042-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...SMITH