Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 291944
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
344 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. THE COOL
PATTERN ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HANGS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE WEEKEND BUT A LINGERING TROUGH
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGING IS FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGING AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE THE
CLOUDY SKIES FROM WESTERN NEW YORK EAST TO THE FINGER LAKES. DIURNAL
INSTABILITY MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES BUT SURFACE
RIDGING AND CAP AT 800MB/6500FT WILL LARGELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...MUCH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AS OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL KEEP JUST SCT/BKN
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JULY AVERAGES. 12Z BUF RAOB MEASURED ONLY +6C AT 850MB
WHICH IS ABOUT -2SD. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES WITH MID 60S ACROSS THE COLDER SPOTS.

TONIGHT ANY ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL TAPER OFF WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. JULY LAKE EFFECT WILL AGAIN BECOME LIKELY AS BUFKIT
PROFILES INDICATE INCREASING LAKE INDUCED CAPE TO 1500 J/KG AND
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING OVER 30KFT. LAKE-850MB DELTA T`S WILL RISE
OVER 13C. THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM JUST WEST OF THE LAKES WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CELLULAR LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK. A RISK
FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SURFACE LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE LAKE SHORES TO THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS THEN ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A LIKELY
PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THESE PERIODS. COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO 30KFT WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO FALL WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ALONG THE TROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH RAISES 850MB TEMPS TO
NEAR +8C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN
THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND PROVIDE SEVERAL PERIODS OF ENHANCED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS IS ALSO COOL ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT OR ENHANCED RAIN AT TIMES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE...WITH SHOWERS TENDING TO
FOCUS OVER AND EAST OF THE LAKES AGAIN. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY LEFT FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCAL HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD
BE LESS THAN THAT OF WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT INTO QUEBEC...ALLOWING FOR
SOME DRYING TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. EXPECT MOST
LOCATIONS TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING. THERE MAY
STILL BE A LINGERING SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THURSDAY
ADDING ON A FEW MORE DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...BUT
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. EXPECT LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 50S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY ENOUGH INTO
QUEBEC ON FRIDAY TO BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE.

THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE TROUGH RELOADS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT DIGGING TROUGH WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND APPALACHIANS...REACHING OUR
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SAME BASIC
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY MONDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE
ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS FASTER IN BRINGING
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THIS SYSTEM BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN
LAKES ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS
SOLUTION AND KEEP MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO TYPICAL MID SUMMER LEVELS FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
MOST DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BKN/OVC VFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON
DO TO A COOL MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BENEATH A
TROUGH OF COLD AIR ALOFT. ONLY SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDS ARE FOUND TOWARD
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE. ISOLATED SPRINKLES MAY POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT VCSH WAS REMOVED DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING A LID ON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...WITH LOW VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z AS SOME LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOP EAST OF THE LAKES. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND LOW VFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE WATERSPOUTS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES ALONG WITH CHANCES OF LAKE
ENHANCED SHOWERS EACH NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







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