Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 181735
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
135 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
LATE TONIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LOW DIVES
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT EXITING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL OFF FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REFLECT A LAKE-EFFECT REGIME AS THE FLOW
VEERS FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

WHILE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE SHOULD SUSTAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING...EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL
DRYING EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN TRANSITION
OVER TO DRIZZLE ACROSS MOST AREAS. REGARDING TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE...IT IS EXPECTED THAT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
LAKE-MODIFIED AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE TUG
HILL AND PERHAPS THE HIGHEST HILLTOPS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT READINGS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S WITH UPPER
30S-LOW 40S IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKESHORES. THIS SHOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN LIQUID FORM WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED SUB-FREEZING AREAS WHERE A FEW SNOWFLAKES OR PERHAPS
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE FOUND LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP EASTERN U.S. MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST
COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. DURING THE MORNING HOURS EXPECT JUST ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE
FLOW TO CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD.
BUFKIT TEMPERATURE PROFILES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOW ENOUGH COLD
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME WET SNOW TO MIX IN
ACROSS THE TUG HILL WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ON
GRASS. ACROSS WESTERN NY...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE MUCH TOO SHALLOW
AND WARM FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH THUS HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE MORNING BENEATH OVERCAST SKIES.

BY THE AFTERNOON SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD EAST
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EVENTUALLY ENDING ALL PRECIPITATION. CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL
WILL HANG TOUGH BUT EVENTUALLY THE DRIER AIR WILL WIN OUT AND BREAKS
OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 850MB
TEMPS BETWEEN -5C AND -7C ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR A
COLD DAY. EVEN WITH SOME WARMING OF 850S AND BREAKS OF SUN
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY...STILL EXPECT SURFACE HIGHS TO ONLY TOP
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST OF EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR. THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FROST CONCERNS ACROSS THE LAKE
SHORE REGIONS WHICH HAVE YET TO SEE AN END TO THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM. A SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW WILL APPROACH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST WITH A
RETURN OF MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW/WEAK
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD LOOK TO BE DOMINATED BY
UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...AS THE MAIN MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL DRIFT TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL THEN LIKELY
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...ATTENDANT BROAD
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST AND/OR
REDEVELOP A LITTLE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND WILL HELP TO FOCUS A
DEEP EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND COOLER
AIR ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH WILL IN TURN LEAD TO THE CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. MORE
SPECIFICALLY...EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EACH NIGHT.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...CONDITIONS SLOWLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS
THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTS OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
AND HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. FOR THE SAKE OF COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS SITUATION COULD EASILY CHANGE IF THE LOW TURNS
OUT TO BE EITHER A BIT FASTER OR SLOWER TO DEPART THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...WHICH SOMETHING THAT SUCH CLOSED UPPER SYSTEMS ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL GUST
TO NEAR 25 KNOTS. COLD AIR SURGING ACROSS THE WARM LAKES WILL
PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.

LATER TONIGHT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...CAUSING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF TO AREAS
OF DRIZZLE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FROM 06Z ONWARDS. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH A FALLING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH IFR LIKELY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...MVFR WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY EAST OF
THE LAKES.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MVFR...AND LOCALIZED IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WEST WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT 5 TO 7 FOOT WAVES ON LAKE ERIE. WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO SIMILAR HEIGHTS ON LAKE ONTARIO BY THIS
EVENING AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOCUSES WAVE ACTION ON THE
SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THESE CONDITIONS
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE WEAK RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD AND BRINGS SOMEWHAT OF A RESPITE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE WAVES BUILD ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



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