Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 171718
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
118 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.   THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS.  MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.

DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S...FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK IN
THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOO AND NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC.
06Z AND 12Z NAM DEVELOP WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO WITH A LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS.
CURRENTLY THINK THAT THIS IS OVERDONE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY
IT AND MAINLY FOCUS ON THE ONSET OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF SREF SHOW A
LOWER QPF WITH EACH FORECAST RUN...SUPPORTING A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR FAR WESTERN NY.  IT MAY
INDEED RAIN...BUT THE AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PALTRY...MAINLY
WETTING THE GROUND FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...AND PROBABLY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL EARLY EVENING IN THE WEST.  WILL FINE TUNE THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BY TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FOR FRIDAY...HOLDING BACK
PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND 6PM FOR MOST OF WESTERN NY WHILE
CONTINUING TO KEEP THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES AGAIN LOOKING FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
CYCLES. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT STILL APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THESE COMING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH
OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL
SEND TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LINGERING RAIN/SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY ENDING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -1C AND -4C...HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH
LAKES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH
A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...TEMPS IN MOST PLACES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN TIME FOR
EASTER SUNDAY...WHEN READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...
WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEST OF ROCHESTER FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GREATEST
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

WINDS SHOULD ABATE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...TMA/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...TMA/ZAFF
MARINE...TMA/ZAFF







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