Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 190827

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
427 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

A weak front may bring a few showers towards the Lake Erie region
this afternoon, otherwise another dry and very warm day is in store
with temperatures rising some 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Warm
temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the remainder
of the week and next weekend. A few record highs may be challenged
late this week and through the weekend.


Surface analysis this early morning displays a stalling cold front
over eastern Lake Erie, and western Lake Ontario. This weak front
feeling the effects of the nearing Hurricane Jose will wash out
through the day today as it slowly inches eastward into WNY.

There will be a slight chance for a few showers today along this
front. A cap around 10K feet will hold back showers through the
early afternoon...but by mid afternoon, and especially towards SW
NYS this cap should erode, and daytime heating and moisture along
this frontal boundary may yield a few showers. There will be a fair
amount of clouds along our western zones, but areas from the Genesee
Valley and towards the Finger Lakes region/Eastern Lake Ontario
should remain mostly sunny and dry as subsidence associated with the
nearing of Jose reaches our region. Temperatures at 850 hPa will be
a degree cooler today and this will hold back highs a degree or two
cooler than yesterday with highs in the mid 70s to the lower 80s
today. Additionally, clouds across far western NY will also hold
back temperatures...with more 70s found than lower 80s.

Tonight strong ridging will grip the region, with clear to partly
cloudy skies and temperatures dropping down into the upper 50s to
lower 60s. The clear skies and light winds...and the still moisture
boundary layer will yield conditions ripe for valley fog formation
across the So. Tier.


While all eyes will be focused on the tropics during the period,
western and north central New York will be enjoying fair weather
along with summertime warmth.

A broad surface high pressure system situated over the eastern
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and an expansive upper-level ridge
will support the dry and unseasonably warm conditions across the
region. 850 mb temperatures averaging 14-16C along with ample
sunshine will help support daytime highs in the upper 70s to
lower/mid 80s. Enjoy!


It can be stated with high confidence that we can look forward to
more fair weather during this period...along with continued mid
summer warmth (temperatures that will be more typical of late July-
early August).

An anomalously amplified pattern will be locked in across the
country during this time frame...with 590dm heights over the Lower
Great Lakes averaging some 2-3 STD above typical late Sept values.
The associated subsidence and lack of significant moisture will keep
sunny skies over our region by day...with H85 temps in the upper
teens c supporting widespread afternoon max temps in the mid 80s.
The warmer valleys will likely experience highs in the upper 80s.
These temperatures will average some 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
Meanwhile at night...mins will continue to range from the mid and
upper 50s across the Southern Tier and parts of the North Country to
the low to mid 60s across the lake plains.


An area of mid level clouds is across WNY this early morning for the
start of the 06Z TAFS. These clouds will likely delay the formation
of fog this morning, with IFR flight conditions in fog developing
near KJHW around 09Z this morning. There may be some reductions in
fog elsewhere (KIAG/KART) but confidence is too low to include any
IFR flight conditions this morning.

It will be mainly dry through TAF period, with only a slight chance
for a shower for KIAG/KBUF/KJHW.

Light winds tonight and a clear to partly cloudy sky will again
allow for fog formation, especially across the river valleys of the
So. Tier.

Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR conditions each
late night and early morning with Southern Tier valley fog.


High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes
right through next weekend. This will provide a long stretch of very
light winds and flat wave action for the rest of the week and next
weekend with ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing.





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