Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 260813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
313 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. A MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL POTENTIALLY BRING
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL
MAINTAIN A COLD NORTHEASTERLY WIND AND WILL PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE LAKE. THE LAKE SNOW
WILL WEAKEN AND WANE DURING THE MORNING.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS WESTERN/CNTRL NEW YORK. WHILE THIS WILL SERVE TO BRING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AS THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ACROSS PA AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NONETHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE IMPULSE PASSES.

A REPLENISHMENT OF COLD AIR ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND A WINDSHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY WILL BRING STRONGER LAKE EFFECT TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO...SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD...
THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL COME AS A RESULT OF SUBTLE RIDGING WITHIN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT WILL BULGE
NORTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THE
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH WILL THEN ACT AS A HEAT PUMP AS IT WILL
EVENTUALLY CIRCULATE MILDER H925-85 AIR NORTHWARDS OVER OUR REGION.
THIS PROCESS WILL BE TEMPORARILY SHORT-CIRCUITED BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND THOUGH...AS A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A SHORT LIVED
BATCH OF COLDER AIR. THE DAY TO DAY DETAILS...

EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-WEST AND EXTEND
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...WHILE A WEAKENING H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT OVER THE REGION. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH A WEALTH OF
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
FOR MOST AREAS...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME NUISANCE LATE SEASON LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTEND WITH SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED BY A CAP IN THE VCNTY OF 5K FT...
A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...60 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE...AND AS
MENTIONED A WEALTH OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THIS
SCENARIO WITH CHC POPS AND SNOW ACCUMS OF AN INCH OR SO. OTHERWISE
FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE COLD WITH MAX TEMPS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 10. THESE READINGS WILL BE 20 TO 25 DEG F BELOW NORMAL
LATE FEBRUARY VALUES.

THE CENTER OF THE LARGE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO A COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS SCENARIO
WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PUSH
THE NUISANCE LAKE SNOW SHOWERS NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT AS THE
ALREADY LOW CAP IS FORECAST DROP TO JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY...AND THIS
WILL SUPPORT PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE. ONCE AGAIN...THE EXCEPTION
WILL COME EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE A COATING OF ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...OUR
REGION WILL START TO UNDERGO A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
LAST DAY OF FEBRUARY WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...NOT A BAD DAY AT ALL.

SPEAKING OF THE END OF THE MONTH...THE PERSISTENT COLD WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY CLOSE OUT FEBRUARY 2015 AS ONE OF...IF NOT THE COLDEST
MONTH IN THE RECORDED HISTORY OF OUR CLIMATE SITES WHICH COVERS 144
YEARS IN BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...AND 65 YEARS IN WATERTOWN. MORE
DETAILS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

ON SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST WHILE A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. THE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL QUICKLY MOISTEN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY BREAKING OUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
GIVEN ONLY NOMINAL UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT...THE MAIN FORCING FROM
THIS SCENARIO WILL BE THE ISENTROPIC LIFT GENERATED FROM THE WARM
ADVECTION. WHILE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL BE LIKELY BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...THE FORCING IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING
THOUGH AS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD REQUIRE ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN
25 AND 30...WHICH WILL FEEL BALMY AFTER OUR RECENT STRETCH OF BITTER
COLD.

THE WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW MORE
INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SPLIT LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 LEADING INTO THIS
PERIOD WILL PHASE EARLY IN THE WEEK AS SEVERAL ROBUST MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PUMP UP
A RIDGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH
WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION.

AS WE PUSH INTO TUESDAY THOUGH...PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH CYCLOGENESIS TO FOLLOW OVER THE
PLAINS. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE RESULTING SFC LOW...THE MAJORITY OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
BASED ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SOLUTION WHERE A RELATIVELY WEAK CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE MID WEST TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE CROSSING
OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD BE A RELATIVELY `MILD`
STORM TRACK THAT WOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
HAVE HELD ONTO HIGH CHC POPS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE PCPN
WOULD START OFF AS LIGHT SNOW...THEN GIVEN THE DESCRIBED STORM
TRACK...WOULD TRANSITION TO MIXED PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH DISSIPATING LES WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT BACK
INTO VFR RANGE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUD WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM WILL LARGELY PASS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ELSEWHERE. WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO ONCE AGAIN FRI NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY.
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE NORTHEASTERLY EARLY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. WESTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TO
AROUND 15KTS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS
THE LAKES BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES OVER THE
LAKES BY SATURDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
---THIS FEBRUARY IS WRAPPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE COLDEST AND
SNOWIEST MONTHS IN OUR PRIMARY CLIMATE STATIONS HISTORY. THE
CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HAS LEFT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY A HISTORIC MONTH THAT WILL BE A BENCHMARK MARK FOR
YEARS TO COME. BELOW ARE THE COLDEST MONTHS IN EACH STATIONS
HISTORY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER GO BACK TO
1871...WHILE TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN WATERTOWN GO BACK TO 1950.


STATION:    VALUE (F)   MONTH (YEAR)

BUFFALO     11.6        FEB (1934)
            13.4        FEB (1875)
            13.8        JAN (1977)
            14.1        JAN (1918)
            14.6        FEB (1885)
            14.9        FEB (1979)
            15.5        FEB (1978)
            15.6        JAN (1920)
            15.6        JAN (1912)
            16.2        JAN (1945)


ROCHESTER   12.6        FEB (1934)
            13.7        FEB (1979)
            14.4        FEB (1875)
            14.5        FEB (1885)
            14.8        JAN (1918)
            14.9        JAN (1994)
            15.2        JAN (1945)
            15.5        JAN (1977)
            15.7        JAN (1981)
            16.1        JAN (1920)


WATERTOWN    6.4        DEC (1989)
             6.5        JAN (1970)
             6.9        JAN (1994)
             7.9        FEB (1978)
             8.0        JAN (1981)
             8.1        JAN (2004)
             8.4        FEB (1979)
            10.0        JAN (2003)
            10.1        JAN (1977)
            10.3        JAN (1961)

CURRENT MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LISTED ON THE CF6 CLIMATE
PRODUCT.


---FEBRUARY HAS ALSO BEEN A SNOWY MONTH AS A PERSISTENT TRACK OF
CLIPPERS WITHIN A NORTHWEST FLOW HAS MAINTAINED NICKEL AND DIME
SNOWS THROUGH THE MONTH...THIS AFTER A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC STORM TO
START FEBRUARY. BELOW ARE THE TOP SNOWIEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD.
SNOWFALL RECORDS GO BACK TO 1884.

STATION:    SNOW (IN)      YEAR

BUFFALO     1  54.2        1958
            2  49.5        1960
            3  45.9        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


ROCHESTER   1  64.8        1958
            2  58.3        1960
            3  46.5        2007
            4  44.7        2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)


--- BUFFALO NEW YORK HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW FREEZING SINCE
JANUARY 30TH. BELOW IS A LIST OF LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAYS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING IN BUFFALO`S HISTORY.

STATION: RUN LENGTH END DATE

BUFFALO45 DAYSFEB 8 1977
41 DAYSMAR 8 1978
 34 DAYS FEB 10 1985
31 DAYSFEB 24 1901
28 DAYSJAN 12 1881
 27 DAYS FEB 25 2015

--- IT IS LIKELY THAT BUFFALO REMAINS BELOW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONCE BEFORE...IN THE YEAR 1978.

---ROCHESTER HAS HAD 9 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS
IN FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        10          1979
         9          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/25)

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A MONTH THAT HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW ZERO IS FEBRUARY 1979...AND ALSO JANUARY 1994.

THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN A WINTER SEASON IN ROCHESTER THAT
HAVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO IS 15 DAYS SET BACK IN
1884-85.

---WATERTOWN HAS HAD 16 DAYS THIS MONTH WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW ZERO. BELOW IS A LIST OF GREATEST NUMBER OF DAYS IN
FEBRUARY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO...

        NUMBER      YEAR

        16          1978
        16          2015 (DATA THROUGH 2/24)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WCH
CLIMATE...THOMAS







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