Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 162115
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
515 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge over the region tonight leading to a cold
night with the first frost of the season for many areas. High
pressure will then shift south of our region Tuesday through the end
of the week while providing an extended period of dry weather and
temperatures warming to above normal. The next chance of rain is
forecast next Monday with a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered lake effect rain showers continuing south and southeast of
Lake Ontario. This activity will gradually wind down through early
evening as high pressure continues to advance toward the area.

High pressure moves in tonight resulting in diminishing backing
winds and clearing skies. This will result in good radiational
cooling conditions, with low temperatures falling well into the
30s with the coldest locations dipping into the 20s. Frost
advisory will remain in effect for areas where the growing
season continues.

The ridge slides to our south Tuesday resulting in a milder
temperatures with breezy southwest winds under abundant sunshine.
Temperatures will respond nicely with highs in the mid 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather will continue through the midweek with subtle warming
each day.  There won`t be any significant amplifications to the
large scale pattern - only small shortwaves within a mostly zonal
flow. At the surface, the main feature will be a high pressure along
the mid Atlantic coast.  This will allow WSW flow aloft to bring in
a little warmth from the midwest, but appreciable warmth will have
to wait until the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model guidance remains in excellent agreement, with high forecast
confidence in a dry pattern with above normal temperatures through
next weekend. This will be due to broad upper level ridge along the
eastern seaboard and an elongated area of high pressure extending
from eastern Canada to the eastern CONUS. Forecast high temperatures
hedge warmer than consensus guidance given the high forecast
confidence with highs averaging in the mid to upper 60s Friday and
warming into the 70s over the weekend. The combination of dry
weather and above normal temperatures will provide excellent weather
for the weekend.

This ridge will finally start to break down Sunday night, with a
weak cold front expected to cross the region on Monday. This will
bring a chance of showers, and slightly cooler weather going into
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR cigs are in place due to lingering lake effect clouds with bases
3000-4000 feet. Scattered rain showers southeast of Lake Ontario
will weaken through early evening.

Expect widespread VFR conditions to develop by this evening which
will last through tonight. Some limited Lake Effect clouds may
develop over Lake Erie overnight into Tuesday morning which could
bring a short period of MVFR to KBUF. Have left as SCT for now.

VFR will then be in place Tuesday with high pressure centered over
the Ohio Valley.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Saturday...VFR except for local IFR in river
valley fog each late night and early morning.

&&

.MARINE...
There will be a period of lower winds and waves tonight as high
pressure ridges over the eastern Great Lakes. Another period of
elevated southwest winds will develop Tuesday as a pressure gradient
shifts back over the eastern Great Lakes. This will likely bring a
round of Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lakes Erie and Ontario
through Tuesday night.

Another period of light winds/waves expected Wednesday as high
pressure shifts across the Mid-Atlantic region then the pressure
gradient over the eastern lakes tightens up again Thursday with the
approach of a cold front.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ001>006-010-011-013-014-019-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/TMA
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA



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