Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 162351
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
651 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Expansive high pressure over the Mississippi Valley will build
across our region tonight and Saturday to set us up for a nice start
to the weekend. While a weak front may bring us some showers
Saturday night...much of Sunday should be precipitation free.
Significant warming will then take place early next week with many
areas climbing above 60 for Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expansive high pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley this
evening will push east across the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
tonight. This will allow skies to clear across the bulk of the
region...although some lake induced clouds and nuisance snow showers
will be found southeast and east of Lake Ontario. In regards to
temperatures...it will be much colder than recent nights...with the
mercury dropping into the teens over the western counties and the
single digits across the North Country. Would not rule out a few
below zero readings in the Saint Lawrence Valley in northern
Jefferson County.

On Saturday...high pressure that will be over the region at daybreak
will push east across New England. This will keep fair dry weather
over our region...although clouds will gradually increase during the
course of the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cool airmass will linger over our region through the rest of the
weekend with some light snow possible Saturday night before much
warmer temperatures and rain arrive Monday. Low pressure near the
DelMarVa Saturday evening will shift off the East Coast south of
Long Island through the night. Meanwhile a surface and mid-level
trough is forecast to cross the eastern Great Lakes. The low to our
southeast will spread some widespread snow across Pennsylvania
likely extending north into the western Southern Tier, Finger Lakes
and Central NY. Probabilities are much lower along a line from
Buffalo to Rochester to Watertown. Snow will linger longest in the
higher terrain with upslope southwesterly flow behind the passing
surface front. Snowfall in the higher terrain of the western
Southern Tier and Tug Hill looks to total 1-2 inches Saturday night
with less than an inch at lower elevations toward the metro centers.
Not expecting any winter weather headlines. Temperatures should
bottom out in the mid/upper 20s.

Sunday will be dry after any lingering upslope tapers off as broad
high pressure passes over the Ohio Valley and Northeast states.
Clouds will break for a good deal of sunshine by afternoon. Temps
Sunday will climb into the 30s to perhaps 40 degrees in a few spots
then slip back to around freezing Sunday night with few to scattered
clouds while remaining dry.

A warm and wet period is then expected for the first half of next
week. A warm front with anomalously moist airmass tied to the Gulf
of Mexico is expected to lift north across New York Monday. This
front will be forced by a 50kt low level jet ahead of elongated low
pressure forming over the central states. A +3/+4 standardized
anomaly is associated with PWATs in excess of one inch. This will
bring widespread rain by Monday afternoon with temperatures warming
into the low 50s in WNY and mid 40s east of Lake Ontario behind the
front. Periods of rain will linger into Monday night with
temperatures remaining mild as steady southwest winds continue warm
advection. Overnight temps will likely not slip below the 40s and
perhaps 50s in downslope areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A western states mid-level trough and strong southeast states ridge
will hold a baroclinic zone from the Southern Plains to the eastern
Great Lakes through midweek. Deep moist southwest flow across
western and central NY will promote well above normal temperatures
Tuesday with widespread rain likely lingering into Wednesday.
Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with high temperatures
looking like they will surge into the mid to upper 60s across
western NY and low 60s east of Lake Ontario. The warmest readings
will be in the Genesee Valley with temperatures possibly cracking
the 70 degree mark, while the coolest readings will be near the lake
shores where southwest winds will keep city of Buffalo limited to
the 50s. The baroclinic zone will hold a stalled or slowly moving
frontal zone over or in vicinity of western and north-central NY
supporting the likely extended period of rainfall. WPC QPF for Mon-
Tues indicate potential for more than one inch of rain across much
of western and north-central NY. This could be enough to cause rises
on area creeks and rivers.

Models show a mid-level trough will eject out of the western states
trough and across the upper Mid-west states midweek. This is likely
what will finally push the stall/slow moving frontal zone east of
our area by later Wednesday or Wednesday night. Strong dry high
pressure should then build over the Great Lakes Thursday/ Thursday
night. The warm temps and rain of Tuesday will trend to cooler and
drier conditons by Thursday. Model consensus then shows another warm
front or surface low crossing our region Friday leading to a chance
of rain showers or snow to rain showers. Temps Thursday and Friday
will average 5-10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure advancing from the Upper Mississippi Valley will
support fair VFR conditions tonight. Some lingering snow showers
near KART may bring brief MVFR restrictions there, but will diminish
quickly this evening.

On Saturday...the large surface high will exit across New England.
This will keep VFR conditions in place along with relatively light
winds.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Chance of light snow and IFR.
Sunday...VFR.
Monday and Tuesday...Rain becoming likely with MVFR/IFR cigs.
Wednesday...MVFR in showers improving to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A relatively tight pressure gradient will remain in place across the
Lower Great Lakes this evening. This will maintain fresh
northwesterlies over Lake Ontario...but as we progress through the
night...high pressure advancing from the mid western states will
weaken the pressure gradient and allow winds and waves to subside.

Generally light to occasionally moderate winds will be found over
the region on Saturday as the large surface high will exit across
New England. Winds and waves will remain below small craft advisory
levels on Sunday as another area of high pressure will cross the
region.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LOZ042-
         045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/RSH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/RSH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...CHURCH/SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/RSH
MARINE...CHURCH/RSH


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