Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 211740
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
140 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK
WITH FAIR WEATHER AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY NEXT WEEK MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH SOME PASSING CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE
NYS/PA STATE LINE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW
NORMAL...WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S. SOME MID 60S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...DRY WEATHER WILL BE COMMON
AREAWIDE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY EASES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS
FEATURE LOOKING TO ACCOMPANIED BY A LIMITED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL SUPPORT...EXPECT IT TO PRIMARILY BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD THEN RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE
40S...WITH ENOUGH CLOUD COVER AND WIND EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT TO
PRECLUDE ANY REAL THREAT OF FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A COOL AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE IN PLACE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DAY TO DAY
WARMING TREND AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AND ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE MID WEST
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE DETAILS...

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY IN NATURE WITH
NEGLIGIBLE QPF. WHILE THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES AGREE ON THE
PASSAGE OF A VIGOROUS POST FRONTAL SHORTWAVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THERE IS LITTLE CONSENSUS ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. WILL LEAN ON A MIX OF OUR CONTINUITY AND THE
SREF...WHICH FAVOR A DRY IDEA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SPEAKING OF
WHICH...H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO
BETWEEN ZERO AND -2C DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL
LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHICH WILL BE
AT LEAST 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.

SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY CHILLY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ENCOURAGING
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
FROST. WHILE JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS AREA FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
SHORES COULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...THERE IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES (UPPER
20S-LOWER 30S) ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND PARTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. HAVE THUS ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH
FOR WYOMING...CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES FOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH FOR LEWIS COUNTY...SO WILL
ALLOW DAYSHIFT TO RE-EXAMINE. FROST ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES IN A LATER PACKAGE WHILE FROST
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WITH H85 TEMPS OVER OUR REGION MODIFYING TO BETWEEN
+4 AND 6C BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN FULL SUNSHINE...THIS WILL
GENERATE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. A MILDER FLOW OF AIR BETWEEN A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH
FROM QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE EXITING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WILL HELP TO KEEP MIN TEMPS BETWEEN 45 AND 50 FOR MOST AREAS.

WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID WEST. WHILE
WE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...OUR TREND OF CLIMBING MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE REST OF
THE REGION WILL BECOME CLOUDY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...RIGHT WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THERE ARE THE TYPICAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG CONSENSUS BETWEEN
THE ENSEMBLES THAT RIDGING PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS OVER OUR
REGION THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE MORE
UNSETTLED THAN THE PERIOD LEADING UP TO THIS AS WELL...AS THE
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH SUBTLE LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND INDISCRIMINATE SHORTWAVES RIDING UP ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
PRODUCE DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS EARLY STAGE OF THE GROWING SEASON WOULD
CERTAINLY BE WELCOMED. MOST AREAS ARE RUNNING ONE TO TWO INCHES
BELOW NORMAL WITH RAINFALL THIS MONTH...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
AVERAGING MORE THAN FOUR INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE CALENDAR
YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 18Z VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION...AND THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY MORNING...THICKENING THE
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS DROPPING A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TO A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/ATTENDANT
MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SAVE FOR THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES...BOTH OF
WHICH WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ012-020-021.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR


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