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000
FXUS61 KBUF 230229
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. THE
RAIN WILL END FRIDAY MORNING WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ABOUT TO EXIT THE
EAST END OF THE CWA ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
LINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE CWA HAS DRIED
OUT FOR THE MOST PARK EXCEPT FOR ONE SHOWER MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
MONROE COUNTY.

UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND CENTRAL LAKE ERIE...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH. ASCENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN NY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH...SO
SHOWER CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE. WITH ONGOING STABILIZATION
HOWEVER...EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE. ANY STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND TAME GIVEN THE SLACKENING INSTABILITY.

FOR TOMORROW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW YORK STATE.
WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS TOMORROW ADDITIONAL LIFT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT BOUNDARY SHOULD PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WILL
MENTION THUNDER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE CWA WILL BE FOUND...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL STILL TO THE WEST.

COOLER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR WEST THURSDAY EVENING...THEN PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...AS A BROAD AND STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S
AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE GRADIENT MAY STAY
UP ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO A MINIMUM
BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NUDGE TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. THE COOLEST PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S
AND LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THESE
TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST SOME FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT DURING THIS PERIOD.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
HIGHS REACHING NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
THROUGH 0330Z WITH BRIEF/ISOLATED IFR COMING TO AN END THERE.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA HAS DRIED OUT THIS EVENING WITH VFR
PREVAILING.

A FEW MORE SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER OHIO AND CENTRAL LAKE ERIE MAY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH VFR
PREVAILING MOST OF THE TIME.

THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND OVERNIGHT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION DESPITE THE VERY MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THROUGH THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF THE RAIN BEGINS TO TAKE
RESIDENCE BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. CIGS/VSBY SHOULD INITIALLY
BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A DROP TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWING
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF ANY STORMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES ON THURSDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WAVES HEIGHTS ON BOTH
LAKES...THOUGH WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 4 FOOT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED EARLY FRIDAY WHEN WAVE
HEIGHTS PEAK...POSSIBLY AT THE 4 FOOT MARK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS