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000
FXUS63 KDLH 240613
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1213 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

HAVE MADE SOME UPDATES TO PUBLIC FORECAST TO ADJUST SOME MINOR
TRENDS. WILL BE WATCHING THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE FOR POSSIBLE
ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

S/W TROF AXIS WILL ROTATE SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT ON THE
SW PERIPHERY OF LARGER SCALE LOW NEAR CHURCHILL MB. IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM..A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG SWRLY LOW
LEVEL JET IS BEING AUGMENTED BY RATHER STRONG 5-7 MB/3 HR PRESSURE
FALLS..LEADING TO A SOMEWHAT ROBUST ENHANCEMENT TO THE SURFACE
WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE SUPERPOSITION OF THESE DYNAMIC FORCING
MECHANISMS REMAINS IN PLACE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE THE TREES ARE THINNER..AND ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOCAL AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL ALSO PERSIST IN OPEN AREAS..AND WHERE
ROADS PASS NEAR LAKE SHORES.

WAVE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT..WITH A 3-5 HOUR
PERIOD OF MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW.
GENERALLY HALF INCH TO INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED..WITH POTENTIAL
FOR UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
TIGHT OVERNIGHT..BUT LOSS OF PRESSURE FALLS AND BUILDING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX SOMEWHAT LATER TONIGHT AS THE DIRECTION VEERS
TO NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD EXIT THE REGION TUE MORNING..AS COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA AND USHERS IN YET ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF
ARCTIC AIR. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY..ALONG
WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW WINDS TUE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY
EVENTUALLY GET ALMOST AS STRONG AS TODAY TUE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT LIVED SUPERPOSITION OF STRONG GRADIENT AND
3-5 MB/3 HR PRESSURE RISES..BUT THIS LOOKS TO RELAX A BIT TUE
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOSS OF THE ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT. BIG TIME
PUSH ON SFC-925 COLD ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE RIGHT AT THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

THE COLD PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

A QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH MAINLY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT OCCURS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOR SNOWFALL GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVERAGE AND
AND LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN CLOUDS WILL LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE LOWEST VALUES OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A
TROUGH BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LOOKS UNLIKELY. THE BACKING FLOW
WILL ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE TWENTIES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST TUE FEB 24 MON FEB 23 2015

BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS MOVING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS AS OF 06Z. A STRONG COLD FRONT TO BEGIN MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA 09Z-15Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE
ENOUGH COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND 18Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS AS
OF 06Z ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD FRONT AND THEN
INCREASE AFTER 15Z SUSTAINING AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25KTS. WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER 22Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  12  19 -11   7 /  70  30   0   0
INL  10  13 -21   2 /  80  30   0   0
BRD  17  22  -8  10 /  40  20   0   0
HYR   7  23 -10   9 /  60  40  10   0
ASX   9  22  -6   7 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
AVIATION...LE