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000
FXUS63 KDLH 032359
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
559 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

WHILE LIGHT SNOW PERSISTS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LK SUPERIOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW..A RELATIVE
LULL IN THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE DULUTH CWA UNTIL
SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE NEXT ROUND OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT LATER TONIGHT.

VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THIS
EVENING..WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVERSPREADING
THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE.
SNOW SHOULD THEN BECOME HEAVY FOR A 8 TO 10 HOUR PERIOD ON MONDAY
AS STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. THE MONEY TIME FOR HEAVY SNOW STILL APPEARS TO BE FROM
ABOUT 4-5 AM THOUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY WHEN 1+
INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES APPEAR LIKELY..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CORRIDOR FROM LAKE MILLE LACS AND GRANTSBURG THROUGH THE MN
ARROWHEAD..INCLUDING THE I35 AND HIGHWAY 61 CORRIDORS AND THE TWIN
PORTS.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMS SHOULD BE AT LEAST IN THE 8-12 INCH RANGE IN
MOST PLACES..WITH ANOTHER 12-20 ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. GIVEN THAT
SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE BETWEEN TWO HARBORS AND
SILVER BAY HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 17-21 INCHES SINCE YDAY..THERE
ARE A FEW LOCALES THAT COULD MAKE A RUN AT 3 DAY STORM TOTALS OF
NEAR 3 FEET.

WARM NOSE ALOFT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO NOSE INTO FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE DULUTH CWA ON WEDNESDAY..AND IF THIS IS ON
TRACK..WILL LIKELY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE SNOW ACCUMS EAST OF A LINE
ROUGHLY FROM SARONA..TO HAYWARD TO ASHLAND. THIS IS A TOUGH CALL
AS THE GRADIENT ON SNOW ACCUMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN IS
CURRENTLY INDICATED..AND ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT PARTS OF PRICE
COUNTY WILL SEE ONLY FREEZING RAIN. WE CURRENTLY ARE GOING WITH
ICE ACCUMS OF A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN THESE LOCALES..BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED BY LATER SHIFTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 458 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE WINTER STORM THAT WILL STILL BE
AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND...WILL BE IN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT
WILL LIFT THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOVE INTO EASTERN ONTARIO BY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF THE
THE LINGERING SNOW FROM THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA NORTHWARDS...BUT
THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND WILL SEE ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE OF AT
LEAST 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...IN PARTICULAR THE
ARROWHEAD. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY WILL BE COLD AND BLUSTERY WITH W TO WNW OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO DEGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15
TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND LOW TEENS. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. I DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...DESPITE THE INCREASING WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...BECAUSE THE WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE VERY COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DANGEROUS WINDS CHILL VALUES. FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST DANGEROUS NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THERE MAY BE PERIODIC LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES DURING THIS STRETCH OF TIME.

IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN COLD EARLY NEXT WEEK TOO. THERE MAY BE
A WINTER STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING
THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIMEFRAME. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL SHOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE
MUCH MORE NORTH AND WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AND SO THESE
ARE 2 MODELS AFFECT THE NORTHLAND MUCH MORE THAN THE GFS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE BOTH INDICATING VERY BITTERLY COLD 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PERIOD COULD FEATURE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES. DEPENDING
ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE WINDS...THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ALONG AND NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON AND ASHLAND
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS FALLING OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND...WITH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA SEEING MAINLY SNOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME ALL SNOW
AFTER 06Z-08Z FOR MOST AREAS AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES AS THE LOW
APPROACHES. CEILINGS/VSBYS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PERIODS OF VFR OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AND
LAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ PUSHES WARMER AIR INTO THAT
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  29   7  10 / 100 100  90  10
INL  13  16   5   9 /  90 100 100  60
BRD  26  27   4   7 / 100 100  80  10
HYR  31  31  11  12 / 100 100  90  20
ASX  30  31  15  16 /  90 100 100  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ025-026-
     033>036.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ012-019>021-
     037.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     MNZ010-011-018-038.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE