Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 270901
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
401 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

AT 330 AM...PATCHY FOG WAS FOUND ACROSS THE CWA. SKIES WERE MOSTLY
CLEAR...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S.
WINDS WERE LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
CANADA. THIS FEATURE WILL SET OFF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATER TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST...AND
PROGRESSING GRADUALLY SOUTH AND EASTWARD TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY.

TODAY WILL START OUT QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE
SOME PATCHY FOG WHICH WILL BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY. WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER
80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THIS MORNING WILL
GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE
WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TOWARD MIDDAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF NE MN AS THE DAY
WEARS ON.

TONIGHT SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REALLY TAKE HOLD
ACROSS THE CWA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD
AND VERY SLOWLY MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF THE CWA FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH A MARGINAL RISK INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. AS A
RESULT WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
THE FAR WEST FOR A TIME LATER TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. PWAT
VALUES GRADUALLY INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN SPOTS
TONIGHT...AND WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY WET DAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ROTATES SLOWLY THROUGH THE CWA. WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE
WEST AND GRADUALLY IN THE NORTH...AS THE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY IN THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE MID WEEK...THEN
RETURNING TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING,
TEMPERATURES MILD TO SEASONABLE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...BRINGING A SERIES
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES AND SFC COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN
THE WEEK. WHILE THIS TYPE OF UPPER PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
WEATHER...THE RIDGE IS SO AMPLIFIED AND SO FAR NORTH THAT 700MB
TEMPS OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BE 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL...OR WARMER THAN THE 1979-2009 CSFR CLIMATOLOGY.

MID-WEEK EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR RESULT
IN SEASONABLE TEMPS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. LATE IN THE WEEK THE
RIDGE OVER THE WEST BREAKS DOWN LEADING TO A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE AT THIS POINT...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PATCHY FOG AT AREA TERMINALS... WITH KHIB/KHYR HAVING THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR VIS/CIGS GOING DOWN TO MVFR/IFR BEFORE 12Z.
OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BRINGING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20Z. THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS... WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE GREATEST THREAT... MAINLY FOR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA AT THE KINL AND KBRD SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  80  57  73  58 /  30  80  60  20
INL  80  57  78  58 /  60  70  40  20
BRD  83  61  79  59 /  30  80  30  10
HYR  84  56  74  56 /  10  60  70  30
ASX  82  55  75  55 /  10  50  70  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MCLOVIN



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