Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 161129
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
629 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Updated for the new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

At 330 AM, skies were clear to partly cloudy across the Northland,
with KDLH radar indicating dry weather across the area. A major
upper level trough was situated across south central Canada, while
our CWA remained under the influence of the upper level trough.
Temperatures were largely in the 50s this morning.

The focus for today through Saturday will be the evolution of a
major upper level shortwave that will amplify across the Upper
Midwest/Western Great Lakes.

Today will be a day of transition across the Northland. A couple
weak features will likely set off some spotty showers and
thunderstorms, but the coverage and rainfall amounts will be
fairly limited. The rather benign features of today will gradually
give way to an amplifying upper level trough on Saturday. The
chance of showers and thunderstorms will be more limited tonight,
but showers and storms should increase considerably on Saturday.
While there will be some limited instability, the main
precipitation type should be showers. The best chance of showers
and storms should arrive at some point Saturday afternoon.

Highs today will range from the 70s in the north to the 80s
south. Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s, with highs on
Saturday ranging from the upper 60s north to the 70s south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

The Northland can expect a period of cooler than normal weather the
second half of the weekend through nearly the first half of the
upcoming week. There will be periodic chances for showers and
storms.

There will be an area of low pressure over Ontario by Saturday
evening. Showers and storms are possible with the passage and in the
wake of a cold front. Cool northwest flow, combined with daytime
heating, could develop light showers Sunday. Highs will only be in
the low to middle 60s.

The cool northwest flow will continue Monday. Light showers are
possible. More showers are possible Monday night through Tuesday
with the passage of a shortwave trough and reinforcing cool front.
There could be storms Tuesday afternoon.

High pressure might provide a period of sunnier and drier weather
for Wednesday. Temperatures will rebound to the low to middle 70s.
Another cool front passage Wednesday evening and Thursday could
bring showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

Widespread VFR is expected across northeast Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin today. Sunny skies this morning will give way
to scattered to broken cumulus clouds around 5 kft or so. Scattered
showers are likely late this afternoon through the evening, with
potential storm. There is still VCSH in the forecasts, and left
out VCTS because of uncertainty of the thunder`s timing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  56  72  53 /  30  30  60  70
INL  73  51  70  51 /  30  40  50  40
BRD  81  57  74  55 /  20  30  60  60
HYR  81  58  77  55 /  30  20  60  60
ASX  82  57  75  53 /  30  30  60  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Grochocinski



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