Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 101113
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
513 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 513 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

A complicated weather picture has developed overnight with
strengthening low pressure over southeast Nebraska and a variety
of surface fronts at various points near the low. An strong
inverted trough axis extends north from the low center into
Minnesota and northwest Ontario. A lingering quasi-stationary
front was located over the northern CWA at 3 AM. South of the
front, temperatures have been steady or warmed slightly over the
past several hours, while north of the boundary temperatures have
slowly cooled overnight. Light freezing drizzle was still
occurring in a few locations including International Falls and
Hibbing. Some of the BR reports from area AWOS sites with lower
ceilings are likely freezing drizzle as well.

The surface low will continue to intensify and lift across
southern Wisconsin into northeast Ontario today. Light snow will
spread northeastward across the Northland today. Snow may be
locally heavy at times with visibility of less than one-half mile.
Widespread snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches is expected over
central and northern Minnesota, with 2 to 5 inches over much of
northwest Wisconsin, and 3 to 6 inches in the Minnesota Arrowhead.
Snow will gradually wind down this afternoon over central and
northern Minnesota and by evening for most northwest Wisconsin and
the Arrowhead. Light snow showers may linger in the snowbelt
region of northwest Wisconsin and near Grand Marais and Grand
Portage in northeast Minnesota after 6 PM.

Another trough of low pressure will rotate through the western
Great Lakes on Wednesday yielding another round of accumulating
snow. Continuing cold air advection aloft and the deepening trough
will yield an area of falling heights and frontogenesis over
central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Snow will develop over
the Dakotas before sunrise and spread across the area during the
day. Highest snow totals will be generally south of US Highway 2.
Another 1 to 3 inches of snow is likely, with locally higher
totals in northern Wisconsin where heat and moisture flux from
Lake Superior will boost totals slightly.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 513 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Arctic air will continue to pour into the region on Wednesday
night and Thursday, as two cold fronts move southward into the
northern Great Lakes. Surface high pressure will settle into the
Northland on Thursday, as a strong upper level shortwave trough
dips into the region. As a result of the falling temperatures and
gusty winds, we should see wind chill values easily fall into the
wind chill advisory category on Thursday night and Friday. We
could even see wind chill values fall below 40 below zero in
portions of northern Minnesota during that time. While this will
be an extremely cold period, the upper level flow will flatten
considerably by the end of the work week. Starting on Friday,
temperatures will begin to moderate, with temperatures warming
through the remainder of the long term period. High temperatures
on Friday may struggle to reach zero across northern Minnesota,
with overnight lows Thursday night in the teens and 20s below
zero. By Saturday, high temperatures should be in the teens, with
highs in the 30s by next Tuesday. CPC further supports a continued
warmup after the long term period ends, so we may be looking at a
prolonged period of above normal January temperatures. The
generally westerly upper level flow will also bring a
predominantly dry long term period, due to a blocking upper level
low to the south of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

Widespread low end MVFR and IFR ceilings through much of the
forecast. After 12Z, a cold front begins to move through the
terminals and light to moderate snow is expected along and ahead
of the front. Some LIFR conditions are possible with the moderate
snow. The wind turns to the NW, becoming gusty behind the front.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  -3   5 -12 /  70  40  60  10
INL  16 -10  -1 -19 /  70  30  20  10
BRD  19  -5   5 -13 /  80  50  50  10
HYR  28   0   9  -9 /  90  50  70  10
ASX  28   4  10  -6 / 100  40  70  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     WIZ002>004-008-009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ012-
     020.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ021.

LS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CST
     Wednesday for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GSF



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