Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 062339

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
539 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

The Upper Midwest remains under the influence of an expansive area
of high pressure located over southern Hudson Bay, leading to
cyclonic flow across the area. As the low slowly moves off to the
east, the pressure gradient will slowly relax across the region.
This will lead to diminishing winds through the night and into
Thursday. Snow showers will become confined to northwest
Wisconsin this evening. Gravity wave enhanced snow showers will
persist across the Bayfield Peninsula with traditional lake effect
snow across the Gogebic Range. Drier air will push in from the
northwest this evening and tonight. This will act to shut off the
remaining snow across much of northwestern Wisconsin by daybreak
Thursday. However, a few light snow showers may persist Thursday
across Iron County, but any additional accumulations will be

Partial clearing is expected for tonight across northeastern
Minnesota. This will lead to a brief period of better radiational
cooling conditions and lows in the single digits below zero will
be possible across northeastern Minnesota where skies can clear
out. No significant changes made to highs on Thursday as
temperatures remain chilly, struggling into the middle to upper

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

The pattern over the Northland will vary little over the period. An
upper ridge will be over the western CONUS/British Columbia region
putting the Northland in northerly flow aloft. The western ridge
will weaken some late in the period and shift a bit further west but
the flow will remain northwest over the Northland.

We have a chance for light snow showers Thursday night but little if
any accumulation will occur. A stronger shortwave will dive south
into the region Friday into Friday night. The GFS and ECMWF are in
pretty good agreement handling the wave but the Canadian and NAM are
slower. We expect snow to becoming likely either late Friday
afternoon or during the evening then diminish late Friday night. The
forcing is fairly strong and forecast sounding show a  Most areas
should see some accumulation with the most likely range from 1 inch
to 2 inches. There could be some localized areas that get around 3
inches. As the wave departs Saturday, the flow will become more
favorable to for lake effect snow along the snowbelt of Ashland and
Iron Counties. Additional accumulation will be likely there into
Saturday afternoon.

There will be another chance for light snow Sunday night and again
mid week. There will be a better chance for lake effect snow along
the South Shore through Monday through midweek.

Below normal temperatures will continue Saturday but they will warm
briefly Sunday into the mid twenties to mid thirties for most areas.
Temperatures will cool Monday to the teens in the Arrowhead to the
mid to upper twenties over southern parts of the Northland and
remain near or below normal through Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

VFR with periodic IFR snow showers. Conditions will gradually
improve to VFR this evening/overnight. The exception will be in
the snowbelt along the South Shore where snow showers will remain
possible along with lower ceilings/visibilities. Gusty northwest
winds will diminish tonight and back to westerly on Thursday.


DLH   1  17  11  20 /  10   0  20  50
INL  -7  15   6  15 /   0  10  20  50
BRD   3  20  14  25 /   0   0  20  30
HYR   1  17  10  23 /  30   0  20  40
ASX   9  19  13  23 /  60  10  30  40


WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM CST this evening for WIZ004.

LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for LSZ121-140>148.



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