Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 041745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED GRIDS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS ARROWHEAD AND
BORDERLAND BASED ON SATELLITE/OBS SHOWING CLOUDS STREAMING INTO
THE REGION. ALSO...HAVE PUT IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RW- ACROSS
ARROWHEAD SINCE CONDITIONS ARE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON CLOUD COVER FORECAST.
REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AT 3 AM...SKIES RANGED FROM CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE CWA...TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURE AS OF 3 AM WAS 42 DEGREES AT INTERNATIONAL
FALLS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH 61
AT THE DULUTH COAST GUARD STATION AND 62 AT PORT WING.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS
AND RESOLVING ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WE WILL STILL BE
AFFECTED BY THE ENORMOUS TROUGH THAT HAS SET UP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. AS A RESULT...WE AGAIN EXPECT THE MOST CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. THERE
COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS...BUT ANY
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND VERY LIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST
TO THE MID 70S FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT...AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO BREAK UP ACROSS THE CWA. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
LIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 40S FOR A GOOD DEAL
OF THE NORTHLAND.

CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING QPF
INTO THE CWA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAINLY ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED MID WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WED NIGHT INTO THURS...CONFIDENCE CONTINUE TO GROW IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ALL 00Z
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND POSSIBLY AN MCS OR TWO IN
THIS PERIOD. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
A HALF INCH OVER THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...MAINLY FROM THE
IRON RANGE NORTH.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WHILE THERE WILL MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL GENERALLY
CONTINUE WITH THIS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. HARD TO PREDICT ANY
MORE DETAIL GIVEN THE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...BUT THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A STORMY PERIOD WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY MAKE UP FOR A DRY
JULY.

SUNDAY/MONDAY....SHOULD SEE AN END TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE PLAINS ALL THE WAY THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN CANADA. A
RESULTANT SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MON/TUES.
GUIDANCE STILL DEVELOPS SOME PRECIP...BUT COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE.

HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO MID 70S...COOLEST ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD. LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60...DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

COLD AIR ADVECTION AROUND A DEEP LOW OVER HUDSON BAY HAD BROUGHT
INCREASING CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND KINL AND KHIB, WITH PREVAILING VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT ELSEWHERE. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETREAT AFTER 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
TURN OUT OF THE EAST AND USHER IN ADDITIONAL CLOUDS FROM ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  54  73  54 /  10  10   0  60
INL  69  47  74  51 /  30  20   0  60
BRD  78  53  79  56 /   0   0  10  50
HYR  72  49  77  54 /  10   0   0  40
ASX  71  51  73  53 /  30  20   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GRANING


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