Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 172318
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
618 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Today remained quiet and dry across the area, with southwest flow at
the surface on the south side of a warm front draped across southern
Manitoba and Ontario, which extends west towards a surface low
developing over Alberta.  Aloft, there is a good jet and upper level
shortwave helping to drive the development with this system, which
will be important to watch the next few days.  Tonight this system
will push east out over the Canadian plains to Manitoba, dragging a
cold front across the Dakotas overnight.  This is going to keep
temperatures mild overnight tonight with mostly clear skies. Have
gone a little above guidance for temperatures.  Wednesday is of
bigger concern, with the cold front shoving east across the forecast
area during the day.  Deep mixing is expected behind the front, with
steep low level lapse rates, which will produce very dry conditions
with strong gusty west winds.  Mixing techniques imply that RH
values could dip into the lower 20s tomorrow afternoon over parts of
northern Minnesota, with higher values farther east.  The steep
mixing should also bring down some strong winds, with sustained
speeds in the 15 to 20 mph range, with gusts approaching 30 mph
during the afternoon. This produces critical fire weather conditions
in combination with the dry fuels in the northwestern portions of
the CWA. So, we have issued a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

The area of high pressure will continue to dominate the region
through the end of the workweek. It will be cooler behind a weak
front on Thursday with highs mainly in the 60s. Dewpoints will be
still low but a little higher than Wednesday. The winds will be
less breezy and gusty on Thursday. A return flow will develop
Thursday night and continue into Friday. High temperatures on
Friday will reach the 70s under partly sunny skies.

As indicated by previous shifts, a strong LLJ will develop Friday
night and PWATs will increase up to an inch.  An area of low
pressure will move NE from the plains states into southern canada. A
cold front will move through the forecast area Saturday morning
through early Sunday morning.  This will bring showers to the region
with a possibility of thunderstorms with some instability expected.

Much cooler air will push behind the front on Sunday and Monday
bringing highs in the 50s for Monday and Tuesday.   A clipper will
move through the northern areas of the region Monday night and
Tuesday with another round of showers. There will be a possibility
of mixed and rain and snow showers along and north of the iron
range Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR through the forecast. Look for LLWS to affect all terminals as
early as 03Z and lasting to near 15Z as a southwesterly LLJ
passes by. Gusty surface winds develop with the departure of the
LLJ.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  66  37  61 /   0   0   0   0
INL  49  64  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  47  66  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  47  68  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  50  70  40  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for MNZ010-018.

LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM CDT Thursday
     for LSZ146-147.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM CDT Thursday
     for LSZ144-145.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 4 AM CDT Thursday
     for LSZ142-143.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 10 AM CDT Thursday
     for LSZ140-141.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 AM CDT Thursday
     for LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...JJM/MS
AVIATION...GSF



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