000
FXUS63 KDLH 162332
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
632 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.AVIATION.../0Z TAF ISSUANCE/

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS...AND ISOLATED MVFR CIGS IN A FEW OF
THE STRONGER CELLS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND GUSTY IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEN BECOME NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

SHORT TERM...CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TSTMS ACROSS NRN MN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS NRN MN FROM THE IRON RANGE NORTH TO THE BORDER. SOME
OF THE STORMS HAVE HAD 1/2 INCH HAIL AND WINDS 40-50 MPH. MUCAPES RANGE
FROM 1O00-2000 ACROSS REGION AND LI`S ARE 0 TO -2. THESE STORMS
ARE THE RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS
TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY BUT DUE TO LESS INSTABLITY
AND MOISTURE...THERE WILL ONLY BE SCATTERED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
ON MONDAY SO WILL HAVE LOWER VALUES OF POPS.

LONG TERM...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE DAY TUE AND INTO
TUE NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THIS TIME...WITH COOL
MORNING LOWS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S...AND HIGHS TUE
AFTERNOON IN THE 70S. THE SFC HIGH TO THE EAST CONTINUES ITS TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND ALLOWS A STRONG SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE DURING THE DAY WED. A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL COMBINE WITH WAA AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION AND PRODUCE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
WEDNESDAY...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS WED NIGHT.

THE PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSTABLE UNDER A WARM/MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTH
AND A SERIES OF SHRT WVS TRACK ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST.
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH DWPTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  61  43  71 /  50  30  10   0
INL  50  71  41  74 /  50  20  10  10
BRD  55  72  49  74 /  30  40  10  10
HYR  54  72  41  74 /  40  40  10   0
ASX  49  67  38  70 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KK