Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 201740
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1240 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THANKS TO THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TWEAKED
MAX TEMPS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

GENERALLY A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING RESULTING
IN A FEW CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FOR THURSDAY HIGHS...BUT GENERALLY A WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

TODAY...SUNNY WITH A FEW HIGH-LEVEL AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THOUGH
A BIT STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH OVER THE LAKE
DUE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

TONIGHT...A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR. LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY BECOMING OUT OF THE NORTH. LEANED TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPS WHICH MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL IF CLOUD COVER IS MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND SEASONABLE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...COOLER ACROSS THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE QUIET PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
60S AND 70S THROUGH SATURDAY.  THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WILL
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST.  IT WILL BE NEAR NE/IA
BORDER BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE TREND OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
HAS BEEN A SMALL SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF THE PRECIP AREA.  WILL MAKE SOME
SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE POP GRIDS SHIFTING THE NORTHERN EDGE A LITTLE
SOUTH.  THERE WILL BE INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND INCREASING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.  WILL PUT IN CHC FOR TRW- ACROSS HE
FORECAST AREA FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.  SPC DOES NOT HAVE THE AREA IN
AN SVR POSSIBILITY ATTM WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER
THAN THE SYSTEM LAST WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP
IN SPEED AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH THURSDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  42  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
INL  69  38  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  63  43  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  61  38  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  64  41  60  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...MCLOVIN






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