Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 251755

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1255 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Updated for the new 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 713 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Update for the new 12Z Aviation Discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The persistent and slow moving upper level trough will continue
to affect the area, with a shortwave moving south across southern
Manitoba as of early this morning. At the surface, a trough axis
extends from a surface low over Lake Huron, west across Lake
Superior to over far northern Minnesota. Where the shortwave and
surface trough overlap, there is an area of showers, which will
slowly drop east-southeast along the surface trough as the
shortwave continues to move southeast through the northwest flow.
It exits the area tonight, with precipitation chances continuing
into the evening. Have placed the highest pops over far northern
Minnesota today, shifting to mainly the tip of the Arrowhead
tonight. Cool temperatures will continue today, and as we will
have the same airmass as we had yesterday. Guidance is once again
depicting very cool temperatures for today as they were yesterday,
but yesterday`s highs were a few degrees warmer than guidance,
and I have gone a little warmer than guidance for today. Clearing
skies later tonight will allow temperatures to fall much cooler
than this morning, and expect lows in the low to mid 40s.

The upper low shifts off to the east for Monday, with a surface
ridge building into southwestern Minnesota. This should allow more
sunshine into at least the western half of the forecast area, and
the more westerly flow at the surface should help boost
temperatures into the mid and upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Summary: Ridging at the surface and aloft is expected to bring
drier conditions Monday night and Tuesday. A more unsettled
pattern will take shape Tuesday night and continue through the
rest of the week with showers and thunderstorms possible each day.

Mid-level ridging will continue Monday night in the wake of the
departing trough. Surface high pressure will slide southeastward
through the Upper Midwest Monday night and Tuesday bringing
clearing skies and a break in the precipitation chances. Winds
will turn southerly as the ridge axis passes through the Northland
establishing a warm and moist return flow. A potent shortwave
trough is forecast to move across the Northern Plains and into the
Upper Midwest Tuesday night through early Thursday morning.
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop over the eastern Dakotas
Tuesday afternoon and evening, and move into northern Minnesota
Tuesday night. Stability and shear parameters point to a general
thunderstorm threat, but a few storms may be strong or severe
overnight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible
Wednesday through Wednesday night as the trough moves into
northern Minnesota. Surface low pressure and an associated cool
front will advance eastward during the day. There are questions as
to how quickly/whether skies and precipitation will clear in the
wake of the nocturnal convection. Should skies clear, some of the
storms Wednesday afternoon and evening could be strong or severe.
Deterministic guidance keeps clouds and showers in the picture,
and confidence in strong storms is lower this morning than
yesterday at this time.

In the wake of the mid-week shortwave trough, a continued active
pattern is expected with a slow-moving upper level trough moving
into the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains through Friday.
Several shortwave troughs will rotate through the main area of low
pressure keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
picture each day through Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

The Northland will be under cool and breezy northwest flow today.
This will provide scattered/broken cumulus and showers, maybe some
rumbles of thunder, through this evening. Widespread MVFR ceilings
as of early this afternoon will become more VFR through the
afternoon. Expect gusts to around 20 knots or so.

There will be clearing and weakening winds late this evening and
overnight. The chances of fog later in the night look very low at
this time. The VFR will continue into Monday, with more breezy and
cool northwest flow by Monday afternoon.


DLH  59  46  67  48 /  90  30  10   0
INL  59  44  68  47 /  80  30   0   0
BRD  63  45  69  47 /  40  10   0   0
HYR  62  45  68  46 /  50  20  10   0
ASX  62  46  69  49 /  80  40  20   0




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