Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 172101
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
335 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Another cloudy and soggy night on tap across the Northland.
Robust northward moisture transport today will continue tonight
setting the stage for another round of rain and thunderstorms. A
cool front stretched from a surface low over northwest Iowa
through the Twin Cities and into northwest Wisconsin. South of the
front a warm and unstable airmass has developed. The first line
of storms grazed our southeast during the past hour and seems to
have temporarily stabilized the airmass in its wake. While the
convection and lingering cloud cover has kept the potential for
strong thunderstorms limited, clearing skies over the next several
hours could be enough to generate a nose of 500 to 750 j/kg of
MUCAPE. Shear profiles aren`t as favorable for supercells as
yesterday, but a limited potential for damaging wind gusts or
large hail exists. Rain and thunderstorms will continue tonight
and much of northwest Wisconsin remains under a Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall per WPC. Will continue the Flash Flood Watch
with no changes this afternoon.

The surface low and associated upper-level trough will advance
northeastward out of the area on Thursday. Look for increasing
sunshine during the day and precipitation chances winding down by
early afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

The Northland`s cool and wet weather pattern will likely continue
through early next week. Significant rain is likely this weekend,
and additional light rain is possible early next week.
Temperatures will likely be about 10 to 20 degrees below normal
through the weekend, but a little bit closer to normal early next
week.

An area of high pressure will be over south-central Canada
Thursday evening. It will shift east-southeast through southern
Canada into the upcoming weekend, reaching Quebec on Saturday.
This high pressure will help provide the Northland a short period
of dry weather Thursday night and much of Friday. The Northland
will even see sun Friday morning! It will still be a cool day,
though, in part because of the easterly flow crossing Lake
Superior.

An upper-level low will be over the Colorado/New Mexico area
Friday, and begin lifting and organizing over the Plains. An east-
to-west orientated shortwave associated with the low will lift
into the Northland from the south Friday afternoon or evening. It
could help trigger some showers and storms, but the forecast
chances for precipitation are very low because the relatively dry
air will likely prevent much precipitation from reaching the
ground. It will at the least bring cloud cover back into the
Northland.

The upper low will lift into the Plains Friday night and
Saturday, and its associated surface low will from the Southern
Plains into the Minnesota and Wisconsin region. It will bring a
surge of moisture north into the Northland, with precipitable
water values increasing to about 0.75 to 1.25 inches. Rain will
likely spread across the Northland Saturday into early Sunday as
the low lifts north into Canada, bringing the Northland widespread
light to moderate rainfall. The chances of thunder look very low
at this point, but those details will become better known when
time gets closer.

A trough will likely drop through the Northland early next week,
shortly after the passage of the weekend area of low pressure. This
will provide another opportunity for showers, as well some
thunderstorms from daytime heating Monday afternoon and evening.
Cool northerly flow could help develop a few showers on Tuesday, too.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions across northeast Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin will continue through at least early Thursday.
The KINL area, however, should mostly see VFR. An area of low
pressure in the Central Plains will lift into the Minnesota and
Wisconsin region tonight into tomorrow. Rain, and some thunder,
will spread into northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this
afternoon into tonight. The thunder will mainly affect the KHYR
and across northwest Wisconsin, but there could be isolated
rumbles of thunder near KDLH and KBRD. Strong and gusty northeast
winds will develop by this evening due to the approaching low, and
the strong winds will continue through the middle of the night.
There will likely be improvement of conditions back to MVFR or VFR
by Thursday afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  52  33  52 /  90  60   0   0
INL  39  55  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  44  58  36  58 /  80  20   0  10
HYR  41  50  32  59 /  90  60   0  10
ASX  39  46  31  52 /  90  70   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for WIZ002>004-008-
     009.

MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for
LSZ121-     146>148.

     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for
     LSZ121-146>148.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT
     Thursday for LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Huyck
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...Grochocinski



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