Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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039
FXUS63 KDLH 162025
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
325 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERNS IS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE BRAINERD AND LEECH LAKE
AREAS. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DISSIPATE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR CASS AND CROW WING COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT
AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN
THREAT TIME TO BE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MORNING BEFORE A DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AFTER NOON AS THE SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MORE CAPE AND MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SPC HAS
PINE COUNTY ALONG WITH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN NW WI IN AN
ENHANCED AREA WITH THE AREA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN A SLIGHT RISK.
ONE INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON
THE SUN. ANY CONCERN IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH 0.75 TO 1.5
INCHES POSSIBLE. FFG VALUES ARE 1.6-2.0 IN ONE HOUR WHICH COULD
HAPPEN IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL BE VERY SLOW TO EXIT THE
REGION...  BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOW WILL BE OVER NRN MN AND BY
TUESDAY MORNING SFC LOW WILL HAVE GONE AHEAD TO THE EAST...BUT THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL LINGER...AND KEEP THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPES COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY ...WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES STREAMING IN
BEHIND THE LOW...AND BUFR SOUNDS SHOW MOIST COLUMN THAT WILL SUPPORT
ICE CRYSTALS. THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...FAIR WEATHER AND GRADUAL WARMING. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM  CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WILL BECOME MVFR WITH SHOWERS...FOG AND
DRIZZLE AFT 00Z AND REMAIN IFR OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE EMBEDDD
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE RAIN AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  64  46  48 /  70  80  80  60
INL  56  66  40  42 /  70  80  90  90
BRD  62  72  43  47 /  80  90  70  50
HYR  63  72  49  51 /  70  80  60  30
ASX  51  70  49  53 /  60  70  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ144-145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR LSZ141>143.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC






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