Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 240803
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
303 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A surface front stretched from the Manitoba and Ontario border
south into southwest Minnesota as of 08Z. A shortwave trough was
also moving east into the region. MUCAPE were around 500-1000
J/KG per latest SPC mesoanalysis with PWAT values from 1.5 to 1.8
inches per evening soundings. Strong storms producing gusty winds
and a period of heavy rain continued to move through the eastern
stretches of the Iron Range and Arrowhead and extended into the
Pine City/Siren area as of 08Z. We expect these storms to
continue to move east as CAPE continues to rise due to warm
advection/moisture advection. The front is forecast to exit our
eastern CWA mid-late morning and we keep a chance for
showers/storms until frontal passage. More showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the evening
over mainly far northern Minnesota due to an upper trough and
cooling temperatures aloft. The rest of the region will see partly
to mostly sunny skies. Gusty west to northwest winds will develop
behind the front this morning into the afternoon. Expect highs
from the mid seventies to lower eighties.

High pressure will move into the area tonight bringing an end to
the showers/storms. Monday will be mostly sunny with highs from 79
to 84.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Surface high pressure will be drifting over the Great Lakes Monday
night. Meanwhile, the first in a parade of short wave trofs embedded
in the quasi-zonal flow aloft will move into Minnesota. This will
combine with the nose of a low level jet moving into the Red River
Valley of the North by 12Z/7am Tuesday. Since the bulk of the
forcing is near the jet axis, pushed the pops farther to the west
and lowered as well after 06Z/1am. On Tuesday, a bit more vigorous
trof moves over Minnesota and Wisconsin. Highest pops are in the
afternoon when forcing is greatest. The parade of short waves
continues Tuesday night through Saturday. Meanwhile, the high
pressure remains nearby and occasionally allows for dry periods.
Pops are warranted throughout the long term. Max temps will be in
the 80s Tuesday, dropping into the 70s for the rest of the week due
to the cloud cover and anticipated rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

A frontal boundary in far western Minnesota will continue east
overnight with showers and storms occurring along and ahead of it.
Plenty of moisture and lift has led to MVFR and some IFR ceilings
over portions of the Northland and that will continue until
frontal passage. Gusty westerly winds will develop late tonight
into Sunday morning as the front passes and will cause the lower
ceilings to lift. However...an upper trough will be over northern
Minnesota through the day and will lead to some additional
cumulus development through the day. The best chance for ceilings
will be over northern Minnesota with heights in the low VFR to
MVFR range, rising through the afternoon. A few showers or storms
may also occur over far northern Minnesota in the afternoon and
early evening hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  59  81  61 /  20  10   0  10
INL  75  57  81  59 /  30  30   0  10
BRD  81  60  84  63 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  83  59  81  58 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  84  61  82  61 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...Melde


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