Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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536
FXUS63 KDLH 161158
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
658 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT ANY STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA TODAY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF STORMS THIS MORNING. STILL SOME PATCHY FOG
AS OF 1120Z. THIS FOG IS VERY SHALLOW AND WILL BURN OFF RATHER
QUICKLY. REST OF THE FORECAST IN THE BALLPARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING OVER NE MN AT 07Z WITH A SFC HIGH OVER
ISLE ROYALE. WITH VIRTUALLY NO MOISTURE IN PLACE...PWATS AT 07Z WERE
LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH...ONLY SOME CLOUDS WERE BEING GENERATED BY
THE SHORT WAVE. WITH ALL THE RECENT RAIN...SOME PATCHY FOG WAS
DOTTING THE LANDSCAPE AS WELL. EXPECTING THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD
BACK OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH THE SFC HIGH NEARBY...THE
MORNING WELL BE RELATIVELY DRY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SOUTHERN CASS AND CROW WING COUNTY LINES
BY 17Z. BY LATE AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MN...POSSIBLY REACHING CENTRAL MN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORMING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN
EMBEDDED PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SW MN. HAVE
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS/STORM COVERAGE IN RESPONSE. WITH THE SFC
HIGH STILL AFFECTING THE AREA...THIS MAY PRECLUDE THE STORMS FROM
MOVING AS FAR NORTHWARD AS CURRENTLY INDICATED.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL MASS FIELDS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY DIFFER IN QPF AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE. WHICH
INDICATES THEY ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE INITIATION OF
CONVECTION. THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY INHIBIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS OVERALL COVERAGE. HAVE ALIGNED
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND AND MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBOR OFFICES.
EVEN THOUGH CASS AND CROW WING COUNTIES ARE IN THE DAY ONE OUTLOOK
FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...IF ANY REACH THIS AREA...IT
WILL BE LATE TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...A VERTICALLY STACKED DEEPENING SFC LOW WITH ITS PARENT
CLOSED UPPER LOW REACHES THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL SEND EMBEDDED PIECES
OF ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION IN THE
MORNING. THE DRIER AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE FROM THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH
WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO BE OVERCOME. HAVE POPS SET UP TO ACCOUNT
FOR THESE TRENDS. BY AFTERNOON...THE STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND
COVER MORE GROUND. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. REGARDLESS...MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN
THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. SOME HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS WITH PWATS FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES DURING THE LONG TERM FOCUS ON STORM SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
PERIODS OF WINTRY MIX AS SYSTEM WINDS DOWN.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY
RAPIDLY DIMINISHES BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING AND EXPECT THUNDER
THREAT TO END AS WELL. RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AND GRADUALLY END BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY
TREND COOL ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF SNOW EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATION AT THIS
TIME. COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW YIELDING
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN MAX/MIN VALUES ON SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY TUESDAY NIGHT PROVIDING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

LINGERING PATCHY FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE DURING THE HOUR...OR
TWO AT THE MOST...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS. ATTENTION QUICKLY PIVOTS TO THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WHICH WAS OVER SOUTHWEST MN AT 11Z. EXPECT LEADING CLOUDS FROM
THIS COMPLEX TO MOVE INTO BRD AROUND 13Z AND DLH BY 16Z...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO
REDEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MN BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT DLH SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AND LOWER VSBYS
BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AFTER THE FIRST WAVE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PASSES THROUGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
VSBYS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  50  64  46 /  10  60  80  80
INL  70  56  66  40 /  10  70  80  90
BRD  73  62  72  43 /  40  80  90  70
HYR  74  63  73  49 /  30  60  80  60
ASX  63  51  71  49 /  10  40  70  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CDT
     SUNDAY FOR LSZ144-145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR LSZ141>143.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK







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