Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 032322
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SHOWERS FROM INL TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI WILL DISSIPATE
BY 03Z WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS
WARRANTS A VCSH MENTION AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY WITH VFR. THE EXCEPTION IS INL WHERE
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  53  73 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  48  72 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  53  78 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  49  75 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  52  74 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...GSF


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