Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 251128
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
528 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS WINDING DOWN THIS MORNING...BUT SOME
IMPRESSIVE TOTALS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. OUR SNOW SPOTTER IN GILE
REPORTED NEARLY 15 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT AND IT WAS STILL SNOWING
AT 245AM WHEN THE REPORT CAME IN. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE
ACCUMULATION THERE AND THINK ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR
LESS THROUGH 6 AM. WE WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NOW. WE
CANCELLED THE ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST AS LITTLE NEW SNOW IS
EXPECTED.

SOME FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAK UP.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. CLOUDS WERE ALREADY MOVING TOWARD OUR SOUTHWEST
ZONES THIS MORNING AND SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES/WALKER/PINE RIVER AREAS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MASS FIELDS
AND WE INCREASED POPS INTO LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE CLIPPER AND SHORTWAVE IMPACT THE NORTHLAND.
GENERALLY WE EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
BECOME LIGHT BEFORE SWINGING AROUND TO NORTH/NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT
MAY BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE NORTH SHORE...MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF LITTLE MARAIS LATER TONIGHT. AS WINDS GO LIGHT LATE
TONIGHT SOME UNORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE NORTH SHORE
TO THE TWIN PORTS AND EAST TO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. WE INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SNOW AND AMOUNTS A BIT...BUT THAT WILL BE A VERY SHORT
TERM FORECAST ISSUE. THE LATEST NAM DOES SHOW LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING EAST AT 12Z WED THEN BACK THEM TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS...AND IT COULD HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON SNOW TOTALS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...WE DID INCREASE OUR SNOWFALL AROUND THE TWIN PORTS BUT WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS AS MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IF WINDS REMAIN EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHER
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. AT
THIS TIME WE HAVE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.

COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN MOVE IN BEHIND THIS CLIPPER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
TWENTIES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WHICH WILL SEE THE COLDER ARRIVE LATER...BUT THE FAR NORTH WILL
ONLY SEE HIGHS FROM 8 TO 14.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FAST-MOVING FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A NUMBER
OF DISTURBANCES BRING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE WED NIGHT...AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA LEADING TO TEMPS
BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING AND WIND CHILL READINGS BELOW -20 IN A FEW
SPOTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS THE NEXT
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
EVENTUALLY GUIDANCE CONVERGES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN
SOLUTION IS LOW...MOST SCENARIOS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TO
THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A 2-4
INCH EVENT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE 6-8
INCHES. TEMPS WILL BE COLD...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER TEENS TO
NEAR 20 FRIDAY AND WARMING UP TO JUST THE MID/UPPER 20S SATURDAY.
WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NOT BE STRONG...SO POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IS LIMITED.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...AFTER THE WIDE VARIATION IN SOLUTIONS FOR FRI/SAT
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DIP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS
IT DRIFTS EAST OVER MINNESOTA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES...LOWS NEAR/BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS IN THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR IMPROVING TO TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH
ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS
MORNING AS CEILINGS RISE/DIMINISH AND SNOWFALL ENDS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND CALM OR NEAR CALM TONIGHT. NEAR MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW...WITH LIGHT SNOW RETURNING AT
BRD/INL TOWARDS TOWARDS MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  15  22  -2 /  30  50  60  20
INL  19   7   9 -12 /  10  60  30  10
BRD  22  16  19  -3 /  10  60  60  10
HYR  22   9  26   2 /  30  30  60  40
ASX  24  14  27   7 /  40  40  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ143>147.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>142.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE






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