Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 030840
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AT 330 THIS MORNING...SKIES RANGED FROM CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND IN OUR FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES...TO CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
ENORMOUS AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. THIS AREA OF CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AT LEAST
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO...BUT DRY SO FAR ACROSS NE MN.

THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...BUT WILL START TO
BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE 70S IN
THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO 50S...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AGAIN RANGING FROM THE 60S NORTH TO THE 70S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A CHALLENGING FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON AT LEAST A FEW DAYS...BUT THE DETAILS ARE
HARD TO PIN DOWN. TEMPERATURES START OFF BELOW NORMAL AND WARM UP TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY EXITING THE
REGION. THINK SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD
BE REACHED TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT  DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ALOFT
GIVEN CLEARING SKIES. MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE. LOWS INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WARMER BY THE LAKE. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A
SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN
PRAIRIE AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...BUT SPREAD
REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE FOR THIS TIME RANGE. IN GENERAL EXPECT TWO MAIN
SYSTEMS MID-WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE THAT DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE NORTHLAND BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. WHILE CANADIAN HAD BEEN THE ONLY MODEL REALLY SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION...00Z ECMWF NOW HAS SOMETHING SIMILAR. WHILE GFS DOES
NOT HAVE THE QPF OUTPUT TO MATCH...THE UPPER PATTERN IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF/GEM AND THUS FELT CONFIDENT TO INCREASE POPS WED NIGHT.
FOLLOWING THIS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MAY PROVIDE A BREAK LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A MORE MATURE UPPER LOW
CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. GUIDANCE REALLY DIVERGES FROM HERE ON OUT WITH PLACEMENT OF
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES LET ALONE THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE...BUT IN
GENERAL THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND. A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TAKES HOLD OVER THE
NATIONS NORTHERN TIER BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS AND LOW 50S TO
NEAR 60 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

BROAD NW TO WNW SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS..AND THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THRU MONDAY. 5-10 KT WNW WINDS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY 13-16Z MONDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 17-
22KT RANGE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW..ESPECIALLY AT KDLH/KBRD.

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF MONDAY AS COLD
ADVECTION PERSISTS BELOW 700 MB. HOWEVER..CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY BE VFR..BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KINL AND
PERHAPS KHIB/KDLH IS POSSIBLE. WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING
OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS..EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF FULL SURFACE
HEATING..SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A THUNDERSTORM APPEAR
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.  TERMINALS WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF BEING AFFECTED BY PRECIP ON MONDAY ARE
KINL/KHIB/KDLH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  51  71  52 /  10  10  10   0
INL  65  45  69  45 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  76  50  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  72  48  73  47 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  73  51  71  50 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MILLER


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