Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 161046
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
446 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 446 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Lake effect snow ends across the south shore today with stratus
clouds generally diminishing from west to east across the Northland.
A mild trend into Wednesday as much warmer air moves in from the
west.

This morning radar, satellite, and ASOS/AWOS observations depict
lake effect snow showers diminishing and shifting eastward across
the south shore. Low level winds will turn northwesterly this
morning and drier air will move in from the north bringing an end to
the snowfall. Elsewhere across the Northland a broken field of
stratus clouds blankets the region, though the stratus appears
fairly thin due to the extent of clearing being produced by the
variations in terrain, such as the usual north shore gravity wave.
There should be a period of clearing today before additional clouds
arrive tonight as a warm front builds in from the west. No
precipitation expected with this warm front, with overnight clouds
and a persistent west wind developing resulting in lows near to just
below zero. Sunny and mild Wednesday as drier air moves in aloft and
850mb temps climb to nearly +10C - which is in the record warmth
range for INL sounding climatology. West winds will ramp up due to
deep mixing and a tight south to north pressure gradient - gusts of
20 to 30 mph expected. Highs in the 20s Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 446 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

This might sound like a broken record, but not much has changed.
High pressure builds for Wednesday with warm air advection bringing
in much warmer air where highs get back into the 20s to even the 30s
by late in the week. Generally most of the week should be dry, but
there are some wrinkles.

A well-modeled short-wave passes over Thursday which should be
enough to bring some form of precip to the region, but it should
be rather light though could be mixed in phase. Another short-
wave passes on Friday with slightly better odds for QPF.

The big story in the extended continues to be the potential for a
major winter storm for Sunday into Monday. The 00Z deterministic and
ensemble ECMWF solutions maintain their prognostication of a strong
system impacting the area. One thing that continues to stick out is
the potential for a swath of > 1" of QPF which would translate to at
least a foot of snow. Now, the 06Z GFS has drifted a little more to
the south and east which aligns more with the Canadian model and
this is where the GFS ensembles are focusing the QPF. Long story
short, keep an eye on the forecast going into next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

IFR/MVFR ceilings covered much of northern Minnesota with lake
effect snow occurring along the South Shore creating IFR/MVFR
conditions occurring there as well. The lake effect will continue
through the night but should transition to mainly Bayfield,
Ashland, and Iron Counties overnight as low level winds back to
more north instead of northeast. The MVFR/IFR clouds over northern
Minnesota will be a tougher forecast as they are handled poorly by
most of the models so far. As low level winds back to northwest
then west, the low level clouds should dissipate through the day.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   7  -4  22  17 /   0   0   0  10
INL   5  -7  26  15 /  10   0   0  30
BRD   5  -7  26  17 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  14  -9  23  13 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  16  -3  26  17 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for WIZ004.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     WIZ002.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     WIZ003.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ010-018-
     025-026-033-034.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...Wolfe
AVIATION...Melde



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