Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 281623 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

BASIC FCST SCENARIO REMAINS LEGITIMATE ALTHOUGH SOME NUANCES
EXIST WITHIN THE LOW LVL THERMAL PROFILES AND RESULTING PTYPE.
PRECIP HAS MIXED/CHANGED TO SNOW AT KFGN/KROX/KRRT AND UPSTREAM
INTO ADJACENT SERN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO. THIS APPEARS TO BE CO LOCATED
WITH SRN EDGE OF ENHANCED COLOR CURVE IN LATEST IMAGERY. CONCERN
IS THAT MORE EXTENSIVE SNOWFALL MAY MATERIALIZE OVER NWRN/WRN CWA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN MDL SNDGS AND
DIURNAL IMPACT ON PTYPE...AM NOT READY TO PUSH MUCH MORE SIG
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL YET. WILL MONITOR REPORTS NW OF CWA NEXT
FEW HRS.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

AT 330 AM...RAIN CONTINUED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD REGION BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MUCH OF THE REGION WAS NOW IN A DRY SLOT
WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL IN
TRANSITION FROM HAVING THE TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS PHASE INTO ONE.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THE DAY WEARS ON...STARTING IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AND THEN SPREADING
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE CWA. THE 4 KM NMM WRF
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY AS WELL AS THE HRRR ALL SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE FAR
NORTH FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA INTO TONIGHT. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION
BUT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS NORTH.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING
ON WEDNESDAY BUT ALSO THINK THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE FAIRLY
PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A SUBTLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY EVENING...WHILE A SHORTWAVE AND LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THIS SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SW FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. THE COOL NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY WEATHER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
GOGEBIC RANGE COULD RESULT IN UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS THIS FALL SO FAR...BUT
IT SHOULD BE SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 40 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTH.

THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH AND A MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS IN THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIFT INTO NE
ONTARIO TODAY. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OVER
NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FROM -RA OR -RASN. GUSTY W
TO WNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  33  41  33 /  70  60  10  10
INL  41  31  39  30 /  70  70  10  10
BRD  44  31  43  33 /  40  20   0  10
HYR  48  34  44  32 /  60  50  10  10
ASX  49  35  44  33 /  70  60  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ144-145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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