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000
FXUS63 KDLH 090552
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1152 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WISCONSIN
AREAS. ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
SNOWFALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM GENERALLY 1
TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...THE WISCONSIN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
REPORTS THAT ROADS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN REMAIN SNOW COVERED
AND SLIPPERY.

FOCUS TURNS TO BRIEF LAKE EFFECT/TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL SPOTTERS FROM
TWO HARBORS TO GRAND MARAIS ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING +SN WITH
SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1 INCH/HR. DUE THE SHORT DURATION (3-4 HRS)
OF THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE QUICK-HITTING SNOW WITH
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OF 3-6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL TURN
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH DURING THE
06-09Z TIME FRAME...BRINGING AN END TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

HAVE LOWERED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WSW THE OVER
WISCONSIN ZONES. SNOWFALL SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED A DUSTING TO HALF
INCH SO FAR ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE COLD AIR...WEAK
FORCING...AND RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS...THE SNOW WILL BE VERY
FINE AND LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY 1
TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NRN WISCONSIN THROUGH MORNING.

MEANWHILE...ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE SNOW WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND ONSHORE WINDS
RESULT IN LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW TOTALS ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE...INCLUDING HIGHWAY 61...OF 2 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL BE FOUND A FEW MILES INLAND...IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...OVER COOK COUNTY. THIS INCLUDES THE AREAS OF
LUTSEN..TO GRAND MARAIS...AND GRAND PORTAGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

THE VERY COLD WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF POSSIBLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
WEEK. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT TEMPERATURES COULD WARM UP A
BIT FOR THE LATE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS MORE ZONAL LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW INTO THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF KEEPS THE COLD NW
FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. I LEANED ON A MODEL BLEND OF THE
NAM12/SREF/GFS/GEM/ECMWF FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND ON
A WIDE BLEND FOR LATE THIS WEEK.

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE A WEAK CANADIAN CLIPPER
SYSTEM PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE
CLIPPER WILL PROBABLY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE NORTHLAND LATE
MONDAY EVENING AND THE REST OF MONDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE UNDER
AN INCH...BUT MORE IS POSSIBLE.

LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CLIPPER COULD LINGER ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ARROWHEAD AND NW WISCONSIN TUESDAY MORNING. AFTER TUESDAY
MORNING...MOST OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD REMAIN DRY...BUT THERE WILL
BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
DUE TO THE VERY COLD W TO WNW FLOW OVER THE LAKE. THIS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOULD NOT IMPACT MUCH OF NW WISCONSIN...BUT I DO HAVE SOME LOW
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW CLOSER TO THE LAKE IN NORTHERN
BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES. THE WIND DIRECTION IS NOT THAT
FAVORABLE FOR IMPACTING NW WISCONSIN.

THE MODELS SHOW SOME PCPN ACROSS THE NW AND N FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PRIMARILY LOOKS TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE
AIR SATURATING OVER LAKES IN MANITOBA...AND IN THE IN THE NW
FLOW...BEING CARRIED OVER THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND THE RED LAKES TO
BECOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. I DO NOT THINK THIS IS LIKELY BECAUSE
IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAKES ARE NOW FROZEN OVER THANKS TO THIS COLD
SPELL. THEREFORE...I KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WE MAY NEED TO ADD
LIGHT SNOW IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ENOUGH OPEN WATER LEFT ON THOSE
LAKES.

ADDITIONAL HEADLINES FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST AS
THE MODELS BRING IN 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF -22 TO -26 DEGREES INTO
THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE COULD RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING. I
LOWERED MY FORECAST FOR THE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEANING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GEM AND ECMWF WHICH ARE MUCH
COLDER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MOS AND MODEL GUIDANCE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WITH -SN WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH 12Z...WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TO
VFR BY 18Z. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
MONDAY...BECOMING GUSTY TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -2   4 -11   1 /  90  20  50  10
INL  -5  -3 -17  -3 /  70  20  30  10
BRD  -8  -1  -8   2 /  90  10  50  10
HYR   1   3 -11   4 / 100  10  50  10
ASX   3   8  -6   7 / 100  20  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-142-143-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ144-
     145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING