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000
FXUS63 KDLH 112343
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE FOR RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.  UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

AT 230PM/1930Z...THERE WAS A NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER FAR NE MANITOBA. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS MOVING EAST
OVER FAR NW ONTARIO. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
EAST THROUGH NW ONTARIO AND NW MINNESOTA. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
HAD WARM AND HUMID SSW TO SW FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. ONLY THE FAR WESTERN AND NW FORECAST AREA HAD
SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. THERE WAS EVEN MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THERE WERE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA...AND MORE EXTENSIVE STORMS IN NW ONTARIO.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. IT WAS WARMER AND EVEN
MORE HUMID IN THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT CONTINUES MOVING INTO
NE MINNESOTA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL HAS NE MINNESOTA
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...ANY STRONGER
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THIS IS BASED ON THE
MAJORITY OF THE MOST RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE...CAPPING ISSUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...AND THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE
INSTABILITY CAN GROW WHEN THE SKIES BREAK AND BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME MODELS HAD BEEN INDICATING
THAT MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD INCREASE TO ABOUT 1000 TO 2000
J/KG...AND THAT DEEP LAYER (0 TO 6 KM) WIND SHEAR WILL BE ABOUT 30
TO 40 KNOTS. I HAD LOWERED PCPN CHANCES LATE IN THE MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPDATES TO REFLECT THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE PROVIDING LITTLE INDICATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
THIS PASSING FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE
INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING OVER NW WISCONSIN AND
LAKE SUPERIOR AS STORMS BECOME ELEVATED AFTER SUNSET. THE 850 HPA
WINDS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER NE
MINNESOTA AND THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER NW WISCONSIN. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THERE COULD BE FOG OVER THE NORTHLAND DUE TO
THE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT. I
LEFT OUT FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT THE EVENING SHIFT CAN
REEVALUATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IN THE AREA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN ENDING BY MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA
WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE TIME PERIOD. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRING A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS TO AFFECT ALL BUT KINL AND KBRD FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. STORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE ON TO KHYR FOR A
FEW HOURS AS WELL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. THESE
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY AFFECT KDLH...KHYR AND PERHAPS EVEN
KHIB BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA. HAVE STUCK TO A PERIOD OF MVFR VISBYS FOR KDLH AND
KHIB LATE TONIGHT...BUT A MORE PERSISTENT PERIOD OF IFR VISBYS FOR
KHYR OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. SATURDAY EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR PRETTY
QUICKLY IN THE MORNING...WITH PERHAPS SOME VFR CUMULUS DEVELOPING
IN THE MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  57  70 /  30  10  10  10
INL  54  77  52  66 /  20  10  40  30
BRD  61  80  59  73 /  30  20  10  10
HYR  62  81  58  75 /  30  20  10  20
ASX  60  77  57  71 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...LE