Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 282106
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
406 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

At 4 PM, there were two distinct cloud areas across the
Northland. The first was in the Minnesota Arrowhead, and the
second was along the southern tier of counties. Areas from the
Brainerd Lakes region northward were generally sunny. Temperatures
ranged from the lower 30s in portions of the Arrowhead to the
lower 50s in east Central Minnesota.

High pressure will continue to build into the Northland overnight,
allowing skies to generally clear for most areas. The greatest
cloud cover should be limited to the southeastern areas, due to
some cirrus moving through that area. Will continue to forecast
lower than MOS temperatures overnight, as we should see effective
radiational cooling across much of the region. Temps should range
from the teens in portions of the north, to the 20s elsewhere.

Saturday is shaping up to be a warmer day with considerable
sunshine. Most areas will see temperatures rise into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

The main focus for the long term continues to be a potential winter
storm Sunday through Tuesday morning.

Deterministic and ensemble models are in reasonably good agreement
handling a deep trough of low pressure moving across the southern
Rockies Saturday evening and lifting toward northeast Ontario by
Tuesday afternoon. The surface low will lift from northern Texas
Saturday evening through southwest Minnesota and northern Wisconsin
to northeast Ontario by Tuesday morning. This storm track is similar
to the conceptual model for a Panhandle Hook. Abundant moisture will
stream northward ahead of the system with PWAT values increasing 0.6
to 1.0 inches by Sunday evening. Have raised QPF values above
consensus values, which included too many dry/light members.
Temperatures continue to be a challenge with this system and many
details will remain unresolved until Sunday. Depending on where the
heaviest mesoscale precipitation bands set up, the potential for
significant snow accumulation exists. Deterministic thermal fields
suggest a rain/snow/sleet/freezing rain mix. However, precip rates
and diabatic cooling should result in a swath of all snow.
Precipitation will likely start as all rain, before changing to a
wintry mix. Areas of northwest Wisconsin and portions of the eastern
Arrowhead should be the last to change over late Sunday night. Along
with the potential for significant snow accumulation, sleet and
freezing rain are possible with up to two-tenths of an inch of ice
accretion possible. Winds will be strong over western Lake Superior
and likely areas inland along the South Shore to the Twin Ports. The
ice and heavy, wet, snow may result in sporadic power outages.
Anyone with travel plans Sunday afternoon through Tuesday should
keep up with the forecast through the weekend.

Cyclonic flow will persist over the Northland Tuesday into
Wednesday. While the main precipitation will likely have ended,
scattered showers will continue into Wednesday morning. Another
shortwave trough will move through the area Wednesday night and
Thursday, raises the spectre of a few rain or snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Stratus associated with departing area of low pressure lingers
over the Minnesota Arrowhead and portions of northwest Wisconsin
early this afternoon. Think cloud cover will continue the
decreasing trend with ceilings trending higher through afternoon.
Exception may be at INL where strong cyclonic flow aloft is
producing widespread snow showers across portions of northwest
Ontario. A few snow showers may rotate near INL this afternoon
along with VFR ceilings. Winds should remain gusty, but slowly
weakening by evening. An axis of stronger winds aloft will weaken
and pull northeastward through this evening draining the reservoir
of higher momentum over the area. Winds may become light and
variable overnight as a surface ridge approaches from the west. As
the ridge passes through the region, look for VFR conditions to
continue Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  48  30  44 /   0   0   0  30
INL  20  54  28  55 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  25  56  32  50 /   0   0  10  30
HYR  24  52  31  47 /   0   0  20  50
ASX  26  47  30  43 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...Huyck



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