Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 031756
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1256 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A STORM OR TWO QUITE
STRONG BUT REMAINING SUB SEVERE FOR THE TIME. AT 08Z...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO NEAR KBDE. A SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT
IN SATELLITE AND WAS LIFTING INTO ADJACENT ONTARIO. A LLJ OF 35 TO
40 KT AS SEEN IN AREA VWP WAS AIDING IN SUSTAINING THE STORMS.
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG HAVE NOSED INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES
WITH SHEAR GENERALLY 30 KT OR LESS. THE TREND THIS MORNING SHOULD
BE FOR THE BULK OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS
THE LLJ WEAKENS AND THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO THE MOVE AWAY FROM
THE BORDER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO
MINNESOTA. A SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT IS FAVORED AS MOST OF THE
MODELS WERE TOO FAST YESTERDAY MOVING IT THROUGH OUR CWA.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OR MCV WILL MOVE TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE FRONT/LOW WILL CAUSE
SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS FROM NEAR THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION INTO THE
ARROWHEAD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN PROGRESS THEM EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY FOR MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT AS FORCING/INSTABILITY
WANE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN FURTHER THURSDAY. WE KEEP AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON THURSDAY OVER ALL BUT
THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST CWA.

THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW...BUT NOT ZERO. AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE SOME ONE INCH HAIL YET THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
SLIDING SLOWLY EWD WILL BE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER
NW WI. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE BUILDING IN OVER ONTARIO
AND INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH A BROAD AND SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. A DEEPENING WAVE ALOFT
AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA E/SEWD
THROUGH THE NRN DAKOTAS AND NRN MN SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERE IS
AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
NRN MN AS A STRONG PUSH OF WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE AIR ADVECTS NWD INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG WITH A FAIRLY ROBUST AMT OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH. COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN WEAK AGREEMENT
CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE UPPER S/W...WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT
FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT LATE SAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT BEFORE THE MAIN SYSTEM EXITS TO
THE EAST. COULD SEE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT AN OVERALL DRYING TREND INTO TUE AND WED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND QUITE SEASONAL FOR MOST OF THE INLAND
AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WITH CONTINUED
CHILLY CONDITIONS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR INCLUDING
THE TWIN PORTS. PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
THIS WEEK WILL KEEP THE E/NE WINDS GOING AROUND THE LAKE AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE DULUTH AREA IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
WINDS WILL BECOME WLY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...AS A
WARMER AIR MASS BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AT
18Z WITH A COOL/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO
ONTARIO. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT WERE LEADING
TO MAINLY MVFR CIGS...WITH THE EXCEPTION HYR. SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE MAJORITY OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z/03Z TIME FRAME...WITH STORMS ARRIVING IN
HYR AND BRD FIRST AND ARRIVING AT REMAINING TERMINALS AFTER 20Z.
CIGS AT HYR SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION ARRIVES.
THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY LEAVING WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. GIVEN
THE TRENDS BEHIND THE LAST SEVERAL STORM SYSTEMS...THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CIGS/VSBYS REMAINING LOW BEYOND 04.18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  52  64  47 /  60  70  20  10
INL  69  49  74  46 /  50  30  10  10
BRD  73  58  73  53 /  40  40  10  10
HYR  71  57  73  53 /  50  60  30  10
ASX  73  51  63  45 /  60  60  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...HUYCK







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