Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 290541

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

High pressure will nose its way across the forecast area tonight and
Friday. This will allow the quiet weather pattern to continue. The
cumulus field across the region will dissipate this evening leaving
a mainly clear sky. Comfortable minimum temps in the 50s with a few
spots in the upper 40s in northwest Wisconsin. Anticipating another
day of cumulus development Friday which will affect much of the
area. An easterly wind off of Lake Superior may erode some of the
cloud cover in the late afternoon along the periphery of the lake
and inland near the Twin Ports. Max temps will reach into the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Dry weather continues for Friday night and Saturday with the strong
surface ridge still nearby and a shortwave ridge aloft.  We will
have been in a warm and moist advection regime though on the west
side of the ridge and temperatures will be slightly warmer on
Saturday than they will on Friday. Saturday night and early Sunday a
weak shortwave breaks down the upper level ridging and moves across
the Northland, which may bring some precipitation in. However, it
appears we will be too dry yet and have kept pops mostly dry for
now.  It will be warmer and more humid though and have gone with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

The pattern becomes active next week, especially across Canada with
some fairly large upper lows moving through the flow. These waves
will send some shortwaves in our direction, along with additional
heat and moisture.  Precipitation chances look highest Monday and
Monday night as the first shortwave moves through, along with a
surface cold front that is dragged through the area.  Another strong
shortwave moves through the area Wednesday-Thursday, sending another
round of showers and thunderstorms through the region.  For now it
appears the highest chances for precip will be on Wednesday night,
but timing with both of these waves can change significantly between
now and then and have kept to chance pops for both waves.
Temperatures remain near to above normal through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

High pressure will remain in control through the latest forecast.
This will keep skies clear with light winds. As a result,
expecting VFR conditions through much of the period. Radiation fog
will be the main concern overnight, but uncertain on how
widespread and low visibilities will get. For now kept sites in
MVFR visibility, but lower is possible. Tried to get a handle on
fog by the latest observations and viewing the past several runs
of the NARRE-TL.


DLH  50  74  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
INL  50  79  56  80 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  53  77  55  79 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  76  52  78 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  49  75  54  79 /   0   0   0  10


.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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