Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDLH 280603
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
103 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A COUPLE OF ROGUE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STILL PERSIST AS OF 945
PM ACROSS NW WISCONSIN..BUT OTHERWISE PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED FOR
THE TIME BEING. THE UPDATE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND..AS WELL
AS A SLIGHTLY DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CWA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS ALONG WITH RECENT RAINS OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS..WE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. UPDATES ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH
AND MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNSET..MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

SKIES WILL CLEAR AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN
OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE H85
CLOSED LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION TRANSLATES INTO FAR NW MINNESOTA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MN. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE
DAY THURSDAY...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A COOL WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THAT WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING OVER MINNESOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE LOWER 70S
OVER PRICE COUNTY IN WISCONSIN. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE ENDING ON FRIDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD
WHERE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WITH 40 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. A BETTER CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN ON EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ENTER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY THAT WILL RETURN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BE OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHLAND
TO END THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
ON MONDAY WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

EXPECT GENERAL VFR CIGS/VIS OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
KEEPS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE KHYR... WHICH WILL HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF FOG DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE DUE TO RECENT RAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VIS AT
KHYR HAS ALREADY DECREASED TO A HALF MILE JUST BEFORE 06Z... SO
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SITE WILL
LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE NORTHLAND AFTER 18Z
TOMORROW... AND WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE TAF SITES...
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... AND WILL
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO DELAY THE ONSET AFTER
00Z... BUT MAINTAINED THE INCLUSION OF MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS AT
KDLH/KINL/KHIB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  65  40  56 /  70  60  10   0
INL  49  59  35  58 /  70  10   0   0
BRD  59  66  41  61 /  70  50  10   0
HYR  60  70  41  60 /  70  80  20  10
ASX  53  68  39  55 /  60  70  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MCLOVIN
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...KK







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.