589
FXUS63 KDLH 120915
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
415 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers and general thunderstorms through today.
  Cooler temperatures and smoky conditions.

- More slight chances for showers and storms, mainly across
  northwest Wisconsin, on Sunday.

- The next chance for widespread storms will be Monday night
  into Tuesday. Periodic chances for storms continue for the
  rest of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

As the low pressure system that gave us storms yesterday moves
off to the east, shower and storm chances linger as there is
still a marginal amount of instability and cold air advection
from northwest flow. This will lead to scattered showers and
storms throughout the rest of the morning, increasing in
coverage into the afternoon. No severe storms are expected, but
a cell or two could be capable of producing strong winds and
small hail. Northwest flow will also keep temperatures in the
70s today, a nice break from the recent heat. Smoke that was
brought south behind the cold front will also linger today and
through the weekend before flow aloft turns back to the
southwest.

The cool weather will not last long, however, as the heat
returns Sunday with highs in the 80s. A weak trough will move
into the area, with a jet stream exit region to assist with
upper level support for storm development. Storms are expected
to develop in the mid to late afternoon and last into the
evening as a surface cold front moves through.

Monday a ridge to the north will largely keep us hot, humid, and
with no precipitation most of the day. However, that won`t last
long as the jet stream surges south. The accompanying cold front
will help initiate storms Monday evening. This cold front will
be slow moving and chances for showers and storms can linger at
late as Wednesday evening.

A cold air mass will settle over the area as the cold front
passes and we will get a glimpse of early fall with highs in
the upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will warm
slowly into the weekend.

Yet another system will move in from the Northern Plains for the
late week into the weekend. Models are inconsistent on
where/when precipitation will occur.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Smoke across the Northland is causing reduced visibilities at
all the Minnesota terminals. Smoke is expected to reach HYR in a
few hours as the cold front pushes further east. Due to high
humidity and close proximity to wetlands, HIB and INL
visibilities have decreased further to LIFR/VLIFR and is
expected to continue throughout the night. As smoke lingers,
left MVFR conditions for the daytime. Convection behind the
system may form tomorrow afternoon, with the highest chances
near INL. HIB is the next highest, but not high enough to
include in a PROB30. However, that may adjust.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Winds will increase out of the southwest today with gusts up to
15 kts. Waves up to 2 ft are expected at the head of the lake
in the early afternoon transitioning north and east. SMoky
conditions will linger with scattered showers and storms later
this morning into the early evening. Winds will increase further
on Sunday, with winds up to 20 kts and storms possible yet again
in the evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML