National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KDLH 110518
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1218 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

A COLD FRONT HAD EXITED THE NW WI FA BY 18Z AND TEMPS HAVE WARMED
CONSIDERABLY. SOME SPOTS IN THE FORESTS OF NW WI HAD REACHED INTO
THE UPPER 50S...MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE BORDERLAND AND LOW TO MD 50S
ELSEWHERE AT 1830Z. A BIT OF A GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
HAS RESULTED IN A FEW WIND GUSTS. WAA CIRRUS IS JUST BEGINNING TO
ARRIVE FROM THE W AHEAD OF THE ORGANIZING SFC LOW IN NE WY. EXPECT
THE HIGH CLOUDS...ALONG WITH SOME MID CLOUDS...TO COVER THE FA BY
12Z TUESDAY. THE WAA AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL TONIGHT. BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY...AN AREA OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN. 12Z GFS HAS COME
A BIT FURTHER N WITH ITS QPF WHICH TOUCHES THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF
THE FA. BELIEVE THIS IS TOO FAR N AS THE LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES
MODELS...INCLUDING LOCAL WRF...ALL KEEP THE PCPN WELL S OF THE FA.
HAVE KEPT THE AREA DRY TONIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN MONDAY AS A SFC COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA IN THE MORNING AND DISSOLVES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS KEEPING THE PCPN WELL S. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUN WITH CAA THROUGH THE DAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. DRY AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM HIGH PRESSURE
IN CENTRAL MANITOBA RESULT IN A DRY DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH COMBINING TO BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AS WELL. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED THOUGH. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE THE UPPER TEENS TO
MIDDLE TWENTIES.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS AN AREA OF STRONG WAA MOVES THROUGH AHEAD OF A
SURFACE TROUGH. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
WAA WILL BOOST HIGHS THURSDAY TO THE MIDDLE FORTIES OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS...AND 35 TO 40 EAST.

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE LOW. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE REST OF
THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AGAIN LOOK TO BE
LIGHT...WITH A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE THIRTIES...AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TWENTIES...AND A FEW CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT AT 12Z SUNDAY
THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GEM/GFS AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF TRACKS A LOW FURTHER NORTH AND
WOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...WE WENT CLOSER TO THE
GFS/GEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHLAND AS OF 05Z THIS EVENING. MVFR
STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
AFFECT TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS TO
TURN MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT REMAIN NORTH FOR TUESDAY...BRINGING
COLDER AIR AND STRATUS INTO THE AREA. STRATUS TO MOVE INTO INL AS
EARLY AS 09Z...BUT MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO KBRD OR KHYR UNTIL AFTER
15Z. EXPECT MVFR BROKEN CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS TO THE AREA AFTER 00Z TUESDAY EVENING. LOWER CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT TIMING AND LOCATION STILL UNCERTAIN AND
HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   7  23  11  40 /  20  10  30  10
INL  -1  25  15  43 /  20   0  40  10
BRD  10  27  15  44 /  10   0  20  10
HYR   9  22   9  39 /  20  10  30  10
ASX   7  19   7  40 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE