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000
FXUS63 KDLH 180911
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
311 AM CST WED DEC 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 AM  CST WED DEC 18 2013

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING GRADUALLY BEING
OVERRUN BY WARM AIR ALOFT.  PLENTY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS
ALOFT...WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.  A WARM FRONT
IS CURRENTLY STALLED OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND UP INTO SOUTHERN
MONTANA...CURVING BACK WEST TO SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN.  ANOTHER WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM IT SOUTH INTO THE
DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM  CST WED DEC 18 2013

THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO
SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.  WARM AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH MOST OF
THE DAY...WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON.  A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...AND SHOULD STAY MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER.  AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA STRATUS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY IT...MAINLY AFFECTING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS STRATUS BAND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY FLURRIES OR
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.  HAVE PUT IN A
FEW HOURS OF THIS INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  TO THE SOUTH...WE WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE
20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TURNING WINDS
NORTHWEST AND BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 BELOW.
THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL
PUSH THE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.

THURSDAY A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL BE BREWING OUT OVER THE
PLAINS...AND AS IT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING
TO INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY.  THE COLD AIRMASS AND CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE CHILLY SIDE...RANGING FROM
AROUND ZERO NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST.  LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM  CST WED DEC 18 2013

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE RIDING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THUR NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/SRN MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AN ELONGATED SFC
RIDGE AXIS...AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL BE DROPPING SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTH AND SE FROM SRN CANADA INTO THE N-CNTRL CONUS DURING THIS TIME
AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO THE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY BE FORCED BY THE UPPER S/W AND
WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT...ALONG WITH A BROAD AREA OF E-W ORIENTED
MID-LEVEL F-GEN. SO...KEPT THE HIGHER LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE
SRN ZONES...AND LOWERED THE CHC POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
PARK RAPIDS TO DULUTH. SNOW AMTS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES FROM
BRAINERD TO ASKOV TO IRONWOOD...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE IN NRN WI DUE TO WEAK LAKE/TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.
AREAS TO THE NORTH...INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS...WILL GENERALLY SEE
LESS THAN AN INCH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER VERY WEAK S/W COULD TRIGGER MORE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ON SATURDAY...WITH A POTENT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN CONUS. AS THIS STRONG SYSTEM WRAPS UP
AND LIFTS NEWD INTO THE SERN GREAT LAKES...A FAVORABLE E/NELY FLOW
SETS UP OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COMBINATION OF EAST WINDS AND COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FROM SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL START OUT WITH MORE OF AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT...AND SHIFT TO THE NE...AND EVENTUALLY N. SO THE FOCUS
WILL START OUT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH
SHORE DURING THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER S/W DROPS IN FROM THE NW ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER TRICKY...WITH A HIGH
DEPENDENCE ON CLOUD COVER. LOWS THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING ARE THE FIRST
EXAMPLE WITH MUCH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH. LOWS
ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER
20S BELOW ZERO...WITH LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABV AND BLO ZERO TO THE
SOUTH. TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME RISING MUCH PAST 10 ON FRIDAY
EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WAA. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ARRIVES
FRI NIGHT AND KEEPS TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABV AND BLO ZERO.
STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED SAT THROUGH MON WITH HIGHS FROM 0 TO 10...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM -5 TO -25. STRONGER WAA POSSIBLY ARRIVES TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ABV ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2013

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST EXCEPT AT INL. EXPECT MVFR CIGS BY 21Z
WITH SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25   2  11  -6 /  10  10  10  30
INL  19 -11   1 -21 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  28   1   9  -9 /   0  10  20  50
HYR  26   6  17   4 /  10  10  20  60
ASX  27  10  18   7 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GSF