Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 122034
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
334 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

The forecast area was under the influence of a southerly flow ahead
of a cold front that was moving through the eastern Dakotas this
afternoon. A deck of stratus continues to affect the eastern two
thirds of the region thanks to this southerly flow. Some drizzle was
persisting up the north shore from low level convergence/uplift.
Expect the drizzle to diminish late for a brief period of time.

The cold front is progged to reach the western portion of the
forecast area by midnight. Some drizzle and showers are possible
along and ahead of the front where the deepest moisture is found.
This is in conjunction with some weak embedded pieces of energy moving
quickly in the southwest flow aloft. The cold front will progress
into the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin overnight. Showers or
drizzle will still be found ahead of the trof over the Arrowhead and
northwest Wisconsin, ending from West to East over northeast
Minnesota. The precipitation will get an assist from the arrival of
an upper level jet/divergence.

The cold front exits the Arrowhead in the morning, and the eastern
Wisconsin portion of the forecast area by noon. The precipitation
will end and high pressure will build across the region through the
day. The airmass will be drier and cooler. Max temps will be a few
degrees cooler than today.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Friday night should start off dry, but that doesn`t last long. A
deepening system approaches and cyclogenesis occurs over
Wisconsin. This will wrap a comma head of precip over the forecast
area. The precip will initially start as rain, but should
transition to a rain snow mix and be predominately snow north and
west of Duluth. Due to warm ground temperatures and the fairly
fast movement of the system, do not expect much in the way of
accumulations; however, the bulk of the frozen precipitation will
fall in the overnight hours (on Sunday morning) which may lend
towards more accumulation than forecast if surface temperatures
are cool enough.

Current QPF for the area is in the 0.25 to 0.75 inch range of
liquid equivalent which should translate into less than an inch or
two of snowfall accumulations mainly in the Arrowhead of
Minnesota and away from Lake Superior where the colder air mass is
located and not modified. The Wisconsin QPF totals will be towards
the higher end of that range, but should fall as rain.

Afterwards, high pressure builds for a return of dry weather and
warmer temperatures with highs near 60 through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

Expansive area of MVFR stratus with embedded IFR along the north
shore including KDLH. To the west VFR is slowly progressing
eastward, but any improvement will be short lived as a short wave
brings lower flight cats back overnight with spotty dz/-ra.
Conditions should improve Friday morning to MVFR and to VFR by
midday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  55  37  53 /  30   0   0  70
INL  40  53  30  50 /  30   0   0  40
BRD  43  56  36  53 /  20   0   0  80
HYR  49  58  36  57 /  30  10   0  80
ASX  50  59  36  56 /  10  10   0  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Friday for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...JW



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