Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 291222

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
722 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

Issued at 722 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Early morning MCS has decayed considerably and is moving through
northwest Wisconsin at this moment. The back edge has slowed a
bit, especially over southern Aitkin county. More showers and
storms are already forming from northern St. Louis county
southwestward to near northern Cass county. This is in conjunction
with 850mb convergence and 250mb divergence as upper and low level
jets move through the area. The cold front has not even come into
play yet as it is still in northwest Minnesota near KHCO, Hallock,
Minnesota. Have adjusted pops accordingly. Will hold off on any
flooding products as the storms are moving along at a good speed.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Convective complex was moving through northeast Minnesota at 07Z.
Torrential rainfall and abundant lightning have been the main
hazards so far. The overall movement of this system was east-
southeast, with some discrete cells moving northeast as they develop
quickly ahead of this system. Rainfall amounts have been in the 1 to
2.5 inches range. Since the soils have been fairly dry, this rain
will be soaked up nicely. As this complex dissipates as it continues
on its trek through the forecast area, will see a brief break in the
action late this morning before the cold front arrives in the
western portion of the area by early afternoon.

Expect the next round of thunderstorms to fire up along and ahead of
the cold front in northeast Minnesota early in the afternoon. There
is some potential for the storms to approach severe levels, but will
be dampened a bit from this morning`s storm complex which will have
effectively overturned the atmosphere. With the lack of instability
and the potential for lingering cloud cover, that severe risk is
low. However, some heavy rain is possible once again as pwats are
above 1.50 inches.

The cold front should reach the border of Minnesota and Wisconsin by
00Z/7pm. The storms will move out of northeast Minnesota shortly
thereafter. The storms will continue through the night in northwest
Wisconsin. The amount of instability and the pwats drop as the front
reaches the edge of the Wisconsin zones by 12Z/7am Tuesday. As the
front departs early Tuesday morning, have lingered some low pops to
account for any leftovers until 15Z/10am. Behind the front, high
pressure will be building across the forecast area with a cooler and
drier airmass.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

A quiet stretch of weather through the work week as a mid-level
ridge slowly builds across the Plains and Canadian Prairie...building
in towards the Great Lakes over the weekend. Behind the ridge a
longwave trough deepens across the west coast, leading to southwest
to southerly flow at mid to low levels for the weekend. At this
point it looks like the best moisture and instability would be
located to the west, only advecting into the Northland just ahead of
a cold front late in the weekend into early next week, but still
think showers and storms are possible ahead of the front through the

Sunny skies through the work week until showers and storms are
possible Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures coolest Tuesday night
with lows in the 40s across parts of northeast Minnesota, then
generally seasonable through the rest of the week into the weekend
with highs in the low 70s and lows in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Showers with embedded thunderstorms this morning will exit BRD and
HYR shortly leading to VFR conditions at all sites through at
least the afternoon. Another round of storms is possible this
afternoon...maybe at DLH/BRD but likely impacting HYR late this
afternoon/early evening. Skies clear out behind the cold front
associated with these storms...leading to VFR conditions tonight.
Light winds out of the south to southwest ahead of the front, then
out of the northwest behind the front tonight.


DLH  83  56  75  51 /  60  40   0   0
INL  78  51  74  49 /  60   0   0   0
BRD  82  56  76  52 /  60  20   0   0
HYR  82  59  76  49 /  60  60  10   0
ASX  84  61  75  52 /  60  60   0   0


.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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