Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 191747
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Updated aviation section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

The Northland will remain under the influence of a large,
vertically-stacked area of low pressure over eastern Canada. This
low, which is over northeast Ontario as of early this morning,
will lift into western Quebec this afternoon. The Northland will
remain in relatively cool northwest flow. Today`s flow will be a
bit drier than yesterday, so expect a bit more sunshine today than
yesterday. It will be a bit breezy with afternoon gusts around 15
to 20 mph. Scattered light showers, and a few rumbles of thunder,
are forecast for the Minnesota Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin
this afternoon. Highs will range from the low 60s near the
Canadian border into the inland Arrowhead, to the middle and upper
60s across the rest of the forecast area.

A shortwave will drop into southern Saskatchewan and southern
Manitoba this evening into Minnesota and Wisconsin tonight. It
will generally skirt the eastern and southern forecast area,
bringing a period of showers. While most of the models do not have
much in the way of overnight instability, kept a low chance of
thunder because of the lift that will generated by the shortwave.
It will probably be enough to develop some rumbles of thunder. The
overnight cloud cover will help prop up temperatures. Lows should
be in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.

High pressure will build into the Northland Tuesday. While the
northwest flow will continue, it will be lighter and much drier.
The more plentiful sunshine will make for a warmer day. Highs
should be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

High pressure will bring dry weather to the Northland on Tuesday
night, as we remain in northwest flow aloft. The upper level
pattern will flatten by Wednesday, as a cold front and shortwave
move across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Showers, and a
few thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the
front on Wednesday, and then gradually move out on Wednesday
night. There may be some lingering showers through the remainder
of the work week, as the focus shifts to an upper level low that
will settle into the region through the end of the work week. The
result will be some scattered showers, mainly diurnal, with the
best chance being in the northern portion of the CWA. The best
chance of precipitation looks to be over the weekend, as a
shortwave trough carves itself out across the Upper Midwest and
western Great Lakes. There are some pretty dramatic differences
between the ECMWF and GFS, but in terms of sensible weather, both
models indicate a fairly decent chance of precipitation for the
weekend. The other main difference is that the ECMWF brings much
cooler weather for the end of the weekend and early in the next
work week. Temperatures will generally be at or below normal for
the entire long term period, with highs ranging from the 60s to
lower 70s on most days. Sunday will likely be the coolest day,
with highs in the 60s. Lows should range from the 40s to the lower
50s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Northwest flow continues over the area with a strong low over
James Bay. Initial VFR conditions at most locations as of 18z
excepting the MVFR ceilings for KINL. Expect the ceilings to
gradually improve at KINL as well, returning to VFR by 21z.
Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms to begin moving
through the terminals after 03z, bringing a period of occasional
MVFR ceilings and visibilities in -shra. This period to end for
the terminals by 15z, followed by a return to VFR conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  50  68  49 /  30  30  30   0
INL  62  47  68  45 /  30  20  20   0
BRD  69  51  70  51 /  10  60  10  10
HYR  67  49  69  47 /  50  40  40   0
ASX  68  50  68  47 /  40  30  40   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...Grochocinski
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LE


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