Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 160910
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS SNOWFALL OVER NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN LINGERING OVER AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UNTIL DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING. INCREASED PCPN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NW
WISCONSIN...AND ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FROM IRON TO
BAYFIELD COUNTIES.

AT 300 AM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WHICH WAS LIFTING TO THE ENE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHLAND WAS IN
THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY.
THERE WERE GUSTY NORTH TO NNW WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 30S IN NW WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE WAS LINGERING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

TODAY...THERE WILL BE LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BAND FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS WELL AS
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW.
MOST OF THE SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD...TWIN PORTS...AND INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT THE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NW WISCONSIN AND THE FAR NE ARROWHEAD. THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST COULD SEE FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN NW ONTARIO DROPS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
GUSTY NORTH TO NNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT LINGERING SNOW
OVER AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS MORE TRUE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DUE TO COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ARROWHEAD CAN EXPECT ABOUT
1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NW
WISCONSIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FROM IRON TO BAYFIELD COUNTIES IN
NW WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE WHERE TOTALS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES AREA FORECAST. LESSER
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN ASHLAND
AND NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE LONG DURATION PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES FOR NW WISCONSIN. THE HEAVIEST
RATES ARE LIKELY DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
EVALUATED THE AMOUNTS FORECASTED AND THE DURATION IT WILL TAKE TO
REACH THESE TOTALS...AND DECIDED LONG DURATION WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE THE MOST APPROPRIATE HEADLINES FOR THIS SITUATION.

THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH THE SNOW IN NW
WISCONSIN...ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VISIBILITY COULD
BE LOW IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...ABOUT HALF MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LOWS FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 10 IN THE
SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS HANDLE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS HAS THE MAIN LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN
LOW IN IOWA MONDAY NIGHT AND IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW THAN THE GFS. WITH THIS
FORECAST BEING 7 DAYS OUT...THERE WILL BE CHANCES SO WILL HAVE CHC
SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MID-WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE FORECAST IS EVOLVING MOSTLY AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE ONE
MAJOR EXCEPTION IS THAT A DRY SLOT HAS WORKED INTO NW
WISCONSIN..AND AS A RESULT OF LOSING DEEP LAYER ICE.. KHYR STILL
HAS LIQUID PRECIP DESPITE A SOUNDING THAT IS ENTIRELY BELOW
FREEZING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD GET SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO ALLOW KHYR
TO SWITCH OVER..BUT HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED
THERE. OTHERWISE..DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW BAND SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS..WHILE VERY SLOWLY COLLAPSING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING. THUS..A FEW MORE HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT KDLH. HOWEVER..SNOW HAS MOSTLY ENDED AT
KBRD/KHIB/KINL FOR THE TIME BEING..WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AT KINL/KHIB AND
PERHAPS KDLH ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FORCING AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MINNESOTA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  11  21   8 /  30  20  20  10
INL  16   5  19   0 /  30  30  20   0
BRD  20   9  20   8 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  25  12  23   8 /  60  20  10  10
ASX  25  16  24  13 /  80  60  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ012-019>021-037-038.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001-006.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART






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